Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Many has cheered or felt relieved over Xi's weekend meeting with the top Chinese business community. We see a closer relationship between the state apparatus and private enterprises going forward;</li>
<li>January 2025 saw improvement in social financing, with meaningful recovery in corporate financing. Recovery for BOSS might be forthcoming;</li>
<li>BYD dropped the bombshell in populating autonomous driving service (ADS) in sub-Rmb100K vehicles. We view it as another DeepSeek moment. The biggest loser is Tesla. Fast ADS rollout supports AGI.</li>
</ul>


Many has cheered or felt relieved over Xi's weekend meeting with the top Chinese business community. We see a closer relationship between the state apparatus and private enterprises going forward;
January 2025 saw improvement in social financing, with meaningful recovery in corporate financing. Recovery for BOSS might be forthcoming;
BYD dropped the bombshell in populating autonomous driving service (ADS) in sub-Rmb100K vehicles. We view it as another DeepSeek moment. The biggest loser is Tesla. Fast ADS rollout supports AGI.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 7/52] Xi's Meeting with Ma Closed the Anti-Monopoly Chapter

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.</li>
<li>The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.
The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the Hang Seng Index over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

<ul>
<li>Discounts likely set for further narrowing as Chinese government adopts a more positive stance towards the private sector (Tencent).</li>
<li>The discounts of Naspers and Prosus have recovered to levels last seen prior to the publication of the Chinese Military Companies list by the DoD at start of the year.</li>
<li>Last week Friday, Tencent rallied 7.4% following news that the Chinese government are expected to host a summit with Jack Ma and DeepSeek founder, Liang Wenfeng.</li>
</ul>


Discounts likely set for further narrowing as Chinese government adopts a more positive stance towards the private sector (Tencent).
The discounts of Naspers and Prosus have recovered to levels last seen prior to the publication of the Chinese Military Companies list by the DoD at start of the year.
Last week Friday, Tencent rallied 7.4% following news that the Chinese government are expected to host a summit with Jack Ma and DeepSeek founder, Liang Wenfeng.


NPN X PRX: Discounts Likely to Catch Further Bid on China News Flow

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> added to the list of disaapointing tea chain, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group-bab2ff71-b80e-406a-8746-77d70acaa16e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40625:1" rel="noopener">MIXUE</a> is said to be gearing up for a launch soon.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there were two smallish deals in Japan.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, while Guming Holdings (1364 HK) added to the list of disaapointing tea chain, MIXUE is said to be gearing up for a launch soon.
On the placements front, there were two smallish deals in Japan.


ECM Weekly (17th Feb 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Mixue, Guming, Hexaware, Ajax, Aegis, Daiichi, Takasago

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets</li>
<li>Weakness in HK/China markets in Q1 as President Trump takes office will provide an opportunity</li>
<li>China continues to incrementally promote consumption as the new lever of growth</li>
</ul>


Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets
Weakness in HK/China markets in Q1 as President Trump takes office will provide an opportunity
China continues to incrementally promote consumption as the new lever of growth


2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 7/52] Xi's Meeting with Ma Closed the Anti-Monopoly Chapter

Xi's meeting with Chinese business leaders signals a closer relationship going forward. Social financing data improved in January 2025. BYD's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

We highlight 9 potential inclusions to the HSI in March. Downward capping on Tencent and Alibaba gives the index committee an opportunity to add...

Brian Freitas

NPN X PRX: Discounts Likely to Catch Further Bid on China News Flow

The discounts of Naspers and Prosus are expected to catch a further bid as China adopts a more positive stance towards private sector. Tencent...

DMA

ECM Weekly (17th Feb 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Mixue, Guming, Hexaware, Ajax, Aegis, Daiichi, Takasago

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

With the HSI (22,700)and the HSTech index (5,500) hitting resistance levels, we would sell SOME here. We will likely go higher but may not go...

Rikki Malik

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 7/52] Xi's Meeting with Ma Closed the Anti-Monopoly Chapter

​Xi's meeting with Chinese business leaders signals a closer relationship going forward. Social financing data improved in January 2025. BYD's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

We highlight 9 potential inclusions to the HSI in March. Downward capping on Tencent and Alibaba gives the index committee an opportunity to add...

Brian Freitas

NPN X PRX: Discounts Likely to Catch Further Bid on China News Flow

The discounts of Naspers and Prosus are expected to catch a further bid as China adopts a more positive stance towards private sector. Tencent...

DMA

ECM Weekly (17th Feb 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Mixue, Guming, Hexaware, Ajax, Aegis, Daiichi, Takasago

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

With the HSI (22,700)and the HSTech index (5,500) hitting resistance levels, we would sell SOME here. We will likely go higher but may not go...

Rikki Malik

Xi's meeting with Chinese business leaders signals a closer relationship going forward. Social financing data improved in January 2025. BYD's...