Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe Tencent's inclusion in the US DoD CMC List and removal from USTR's NML are both non-events in the long run but not in the short run;</li>
<li>Latest data in holiday travel, parcel volume and home sales painted robust start in 2025, but unstable equity market posts a looming threat;</li>
<li>NetEase's newly released games were well-received and above our expectations. New game pipeline also brightens outlook.</li>
</ul>


We believe Tencent's inclusion in the US DoD CMC List and removal from USTR's NML are both non-events in the long run but not in the short run;
Latest data in holiday travel, parcel volume and home sales painted robust start in 2025, but unstable equity market posts a looming threat;
NetEase's newly released games were well-received and above our expectations. New game pipeline also brightens outlook.


Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly Wrap (2/2025): Tencent's Inclusion and Exclusion from US Sanctions

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was not stronger per day than the previous two weeks. But SB Net Buying was HUGE. The biggest week since global index deletions in January 2021.</li>
<li>The story was similar. On Tuesday in the US, Tencent was put on a DoD list leading to a possible CMC list appearance (which would lead to index deletions).</li>
<li>Tencent saw US$4bn of SOUTHBOUND net buying. SMIC, Xiaomi, and China Mobile were another $1bn.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was not stronger per day than the previous two weeks. But SB Net Buying was HUGE. The biggest week since global index deletions in January 2021.
The story was similar. On Tuesday in the US, Tencent was put on a DoD list leading to a possible CMC list appearance (which would lead to index deletions).
Tencent saw US$4bn of SOUTHBOUND net buying. SMIC, Xiaomi, and China Mobile were another $1bn.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Jan 2025); YUUUUGE Net Buying by SB, $4bn on Tencent

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)</a> had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.
</li>
</ul>


Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. 

GDS Holdings (9698 HK) , GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.


Tencent (700 HK) had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>The two new titles released in December, &lt;One Piece: Ambition&gt; and &lt;Where Winds Meet&gt;, from Tencent and NetEase, have shown promising early results and should become major blockbusters in 2025</li>
<li>For Tencent, the holiday updates for &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; have underperformed, leading us to revise our revenue expectations downward by approximately 10%.</li>
<li>Bilibili's key title, &lt;Three Kingdoms: MDTX&gt;, has seen a slight decline in popularity,  due to the intense competition in the SLG genre. The future seasonal updates could rejuvenate the performance.</li>
</ul>


The two new titles released in December, &lt;One Piece: Ambition&gt; and &lt;Where Winds Meet&gt;, from Tencent and NetEase, have shown promising early results and should become major blockbusters in 2025
For Tencent, the holiday updates for &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; have underperformed, leading us to revise our revenue expectations downward by approximately 10%.
Bilibili's key title, &lt;Three Kingdoms: MDTX&gt;, has seen a slight decline in popularity,  due to the intense competition in the SLG genre. The future seasonal updates could rejuvenate the performance.


China Online Game Grossing Monitor: December 16, 2024 - January‌ 4, 2025

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly Wrap (2/2025): Tencent's Inclusion and Exclusion from US Sanctions

Tencent's impact from CML and NML are short-term. Strong service start to 2025 showed promise. NetEase's games exceed expectations with promising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Jan 2025); YUUUUGE Net Buying by SB, $4bn on Tencent

Gross SOUTHBOUND flows were not larger this week on a daily basis than over the holiday weeks, but SOUTHBOUND bought Tencent with a vengeance as it...

Travis Lundy

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

Mainland investors purchased a record amount of HK shares during 2024. GDS Holding announced that it may list its China assets in a REIT. Tencent...

David Mudd

Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from...

Sumeet Singh

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: December 16, 2024 - January‌ 4, 2025

New titles from Tencent and NetEase show promise for 2025 blockbuster status, while Tencent's holiday updates disappoint and Bilibili faces...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly Wrap (2/2025): Tencent's Inclusion and Exclusion from US Sanctions

​Tencent's impact from CML and NML are short-term. Strong service start to 2025 showed promise. NetEase's games exceed expectations with promising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Jan 2025); YUUUUGE Net Buying by SB, $4bn on Tencent

Gross SOUTHBOUND flows were not larger this week on a daily basis than over the holiday weeks, but SOUTHBOUND bought Tencent with a vengeance as it...

Travis Lundy

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

Mainland investors purchased a record amount of HK shares during 2024. GDS Holding announced that it may list its China assets in a REIT. Tencent...

David Mudd

Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from...

Sumeet Singh

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: December 16, 2024 - January‌ 4, 2025

​New titles from Tencent and NetEase show promise for 2025 blockbuster status, while Tencent's holiday updates disappoint and Bilibili faces...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent's impact from CML and NML are short-term. Strong service start to 2025 showed promise. NetEase's games exceed expectations with promising...

New titles from Tencent and NetEase show promise for 2025 blockbuster status, while Tencent's holiday updates disappoint and Bilibili faces...