Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Civilization Mobile&gt; Officially Launches, Ranks Second on iOS Download Chart.（+）</li>
<li>JD US/PDD US/BABA US : JD to launch new monthly promo event “Super 18” (/)</li>
<li>PDD US: PDD announces new requirements for some merchants (+)</li>
</ul>


700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Civilization Mobile&gt; Officially Launches, Ranks Second on iOS Download Chart.（+）
JD US/PDD US/BABA US : JD to launch new monthly promo event “Super 18” (/)
PDD US: PDD announces new requirements for some merchants (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700HK/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US/SE US/TCOM US/ATAT US/3690HK/BABAUS

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>The popularity of &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; continues to rise. As a result, we are increasing the gross billings estimation for these games by 10% and 15% respectively.</li>
<li>
&lt;Need For Speed Mobile&gt; had an impressive first day, topping the iOS download charts and ranking  15th on the grossing chart. We are raising the expected gross billings by 25%.</li>
<li>Due to the game's lifecycle, &lt;Eggy Party&gt; has experienced a slight decline in revenue. Therefore, we are adjusting the forecast down by 10%. Conversely, &lt;Identity V&gt; continues to perform strongly.</li>
</ul>


The popularity of &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; and &lt;Arena Breakout&gt; continues to rise. As a result, we are increasing the gross billings estimation for these games by 10% and 15% respectively.

&lt;Need For Speed Mobile&gt; had an impressive first day, topping the iOS download charts and ranking  15th on the grossing chart. We are raising the expected gross billings by 25%.
Due to the game's lifecycle, &lt;Eggy Party&gt; has experienced a slight decline in revenue. Therefore, we are adjusting the forecast down by 10%. Conversely, &lt;Identity V&gt; continues to perform strongly.


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Average active fund returns of 3.91% fail to beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF return of 4.39%, with 54% of funds underperforming.</li>
<li>Consensus overweights in Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia proved costly, though Materials underweights, Saudi underweights and strong stock selection in South Korea stemmed relative losses.</li>
<li>Tencent and TSMC underweights costly: Both stocks are among the top underweights among active GEM investors. Strong performance this quarter contributed to underperformance.</li>
</ul>


Average active fund returns of 3.91% fail to beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF return of 4.39%, with 54% of funds underperforming.
Consensus overweights in Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia proved costly, though Materials underweights, Saudi underweights and strong stock selection in South Korea stemmed relative losses.
Tencent and TSMC underweights costly: Both stocks are among the top underweights among active GEM investors. Strong performance this quarter contributed to underperformance.


Active GEM Fund Q2 Performance Update.  Mexico & Indonesia Overweights Cost Investors

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Underpinned by the recovering games business and solid ad performance, we expect Tencent to continue to deliver solid revenue and earnings growth, with total revenue/non-IFRS net income up by 8%/33% YoY to RMB160.9bn/49.2bn in 2Q24E (vs. consensus of RMB161.8bn/48.1bn).</li><li>DnF Mobile’s performance was ahead of market expectation after its launch in May, but we expect it to mainly drive 2H24E games revenue growth given its relatively long deferral period.</li><li>Ad business was resilient on strong Weixin ad performance, while fintech business remained under pressure in 2Q24 amid macro uncertainty, in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Underpinned by the recovering games business and solid ad performance, we expect Tencent to continue to deliver solid revenue and earnings growth, with total revenue/non-IFRS net income up by 8%/33% YoY to RMB160.9bn/49.2bn in 2Q24E (vs. consensus of RMB161.8bn/48.1bn).DnF Mobile’s performance was ahead of market expectation after its launch in May, but we expect it to mainly drive 2H24E games revenue growth given its relatively long deferral period.Ad business was resilient on strong Weixin ad performance, while fintech business remained under pressure in 2Q24 amid macro uncertainty, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent (700 HK) - Earnings Growth Stability Continues

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.</li>
<li>The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.</li>
<li>But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.
The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700HK/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US/SE US/TCOM US/ATAT US/3690HK/BABAUS

Tencent's <civilization mobile> ranks second on iOS download chart, JD US to launch "Super 18" promo event, PDD US announces new requirements for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Online Game Monitor: July 2-15, 2024

Gross billing estimates for popular mobile games like Tencent's <dnf mobile>, and Bilibili's <three kingdom> are being adjusted due to rising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Active GEM Fund Q2 Performance Update. Mexico & Indonesia Overweights Cost Investors

Average active fund returns of 3.91% fail to beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF return of 4.39%, with 54% of funds underperforming.

Steven Holden

Tencent (700 HK) - Earnings Growth Stability Continues

Underpinned by the recovering games business and solid ad performance, we expect Tencent to continue to deliver solid revenue and earnings growth

CMB International

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

SOUTHBOUND net flows this past week were lower than has been the case in past weeks, but were positive every day, and have been positive 23 weeks...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700HK/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US/SE US/TCOM US/ATAT US/3690HK/BABAUS

​Tencent's <civilization mobile> ranks second on iOS download chart, JD US to launch "Super 18" promo event, PDD US announces new requirements for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Online Game Monitor: July 2-15, 2024

​Gross billing estimates for popular mobile games like Tencent's <dnf mobile>, and Bilibili's <three kingdom> are being adjusted due to rising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Active GEM Fund Q2 Performance Update. Mexico & Indonesia Overweights Cost Investors

Average active fund returns of 3.91% fail to beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF return of 4.39%, with 54% of funds underperforming.

Steven Holden

Tencent (700 HK) - Earnings Growth Stability Continues

Underpinned by the recovering games business and solid ad performance, we expect Tencent to continue to deliver solid revenue and earnings growth

CMB International

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

SOUTHBOUND net flows this past week were lower than has been the case in past weeks, but were positive every day, and have been positive 23 weeks...

Travis Lundy

Tencent's <civilization mobile> ranks second on iOS download chart, JD US to launch "Super 18" promo event, PDD US announces new requirements for...

Gross billing estimates for popular mobile games like Tencent's <dnf mobile>, and Bilibili's <three kingdom> are being adjusted due to rising...