Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Amer Sports announced it plans to raise up to $1.8 billion at $16 to $18 per share, targeting a valuation of up to $8.7 billion. </li>
<li>We estimate the company to generate revenue of $5.6 billion (up 23.5% YoY) and operating profit of $285.7 million (down 13.7% YoY) in 2024. </li>
<li>We would pass on this IPO due to lack of valuation merits, highly leveraged balance sheet, and inconsistent profit margins, despite its solid sales growth in the past several years. </li>
</ul>


Amer Sports announced it plans to raise up to $1.8 billion at $16 to $18 per share, targeting a valuation of up to $8.7 billion. 
We estimate the company to generate revenue of $5.6 billion (up 23.5% YoY) and operating profit of $285.7 million (down 13.7% YoY) in 2024. 
We would pass on this IPO due to lack of valuation merits, highly leveraged balance sheet, and inconsistent profit margins, despite its solid sales growth in the past several years. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. Amer has launched an NYSE IPO to raise US$1.6-1.8 billion at a US$16.00 to US$18.00 price range.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amer-sports-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:124040" rel="noopener">Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amer-sports-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:124122" rel="noopener">Amer Sports IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amer-sports-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:124635" rel="noopener">Amer Sports IPO: Valuation First-Look</a>. </li>
<li>We revise our forecasts to reflect the FY23 preliminary estimates and long-term growth targets. Our valuation analysis suggests that Amer is fairly valued at the IPO price range. </li>
</ul>



Amer Sports (AS US) is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. Amer has launched an NYSE IPO to raise US$1.6-1.8 billion at a US$16.00 to US$18.00 price range.
We previously discussed the IPO in Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case, Amer Sports IPO: The Bear Case and Amer Sports IPO: Valuation First-Look. 
We revise our forecasts to reflect the FY23 preliminary estimates and long-term growth targets. Our valuation analysis suggests that Amer is fairly valued at the IPO price range. 


Amer Sports (AS US) IPO: Valuation Insights

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Tencent will continue to deliver quality earnings growth in 4Q23E and 2024E, supported by its operating leverage capacity, improving competitive positions in core business segments and incremental contribution from Weixin ecosystem innovation.</li><li>We expect non-IFRS NPM to rise from 21% in FY22 to 28% in FY25E, on favourable revenue mix shift to higher margin business (e.g. Weixin Video Account and mini games) and opex control.</li><li>Despite the potential slowdown in games revenue growth due to seasonality of monetization (especially in 4Q23), we are upbeat on Tencent’s long-term leadership in domestic games market and capability to address overseas games market. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Tencent will continue to deliver quality earnings growth in 4Q23E and 2024E, supported by its operating leverage capacity, improving competitive positions in core business segments and incremental contribution from Weixin ecosystem innovation.We expect non-IFRS NPM to rise from 21% in FY22 to 28% in FY25E, on favourable revenue mix shift to higher margin business (e.g. Weixin Video Account and mini games) and opex control.Despite the potential slowdown in games revenue growth due to seasonality of monetization (especially in 4Q23), we are upbeat on Tencent’s long-term leadership in domestic games market and capability to address overseas games market. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent (700 HK) - Weixin Monetization Shows Continuous Progression

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite near-term concerns, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> remains firmly amid an earnings upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>With Tencent touching on being oversold, near-term momentum indicators are displaying bullish signals.</li>
<li>Tencent currently trades more than one standard deviation below its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio, and at its lowest level since listing nearly 20 years ago.</li>
</ul>


Despite near-term concerns, Tencent (700 HK) remains firmly amid an earnings upgrade cycle.
With Tencent touching on being oversold, near-term momentum indicators are displaying bullish signals.
Tencent currently trades more than one standard deviation below its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio, and at its lowest level since listing nearly 20 years ago.


Tencent: Positive Technical Analysis Signals

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H / Event-Driven

Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H

<ul>
<li>An ugly week for HK stocks but SOUTHBOUND flows showed decent net buying at HK$14.7bn on the week. High-Div SOEs continue to be in favour.</li>
<li>What appears to have been strong net selling on the mainland combined with CBBC unwinds in Hong Kong related to mainland-linked stocks caused HK to have a baaaaad week.</li>
<li>The separately published AH Monitor highlights a Really Tough Week. Hs got KILLED vs their A-share counterparts as CBBCs sold the HK names and National Team bought A-shares.</li>
</ul>


An ugly week for HK stocks but SOUTHBOUND flows showed decent net buying at HK$14.7bn on the week. High-Div SOEs continue to be in favour.
What appears to have been strong net selling on the mainland combined with CBBC unwinds in Hong Kong related to mainland-linked stocks caused HK to have a baaaaad week.
The separately published AH Monitor highlights a Really Tough Week. Hs got KILLED vs their A-share counterparts as CBBCs sold the HK names and National Team bought A-shares.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys as CBBC Hedging Hurts

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Amer Sports IPO Valuation Analysis

Amer Sports announced it plans to raise up to $1.8 billion at $16 to $18 per share. We would pass on this IPO due to lack of valuation merits and...

Douglas Kim

Amer Sports (AS US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Amer has launched an NYSE IPO to raise US$1.6-1.8 billion at a US$16.00 to US$18.00 price range. Our valuation analysis suggests that Amer is...

Arun George

Tencent (700 HK) - Weixin Monetization Shows Continuous Progression

We expect Tencent will continue to deliver quality earnings growth in 4Q23E and 2024E, supported by its operating leverage capacity, improving...

CMB International

Tencent: Positive Technical Analysis Signals

In this insight, we perform a technical analysis of Tencent by looking at earnings forecast revision trends, momentum indicators, and current...

Wium Malan, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys as CBBC Hedging Hurts

HK Southbound Connect saw large net buying by mainland investors. ETFs did not play a major role in net flows. Tencent did. High-div SOEs were...

Travis Lundy

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