Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Domestic games +17% YoY, not the feared decline. Spring Festival deferrals released as expected; deferred revenue grew RMB23bn — the 3Q revenue set-up is intact.</li>
<li>Capex RMB52.8bn (+176% YoY) was the one real miss; FCF turned -RMB13.8bn. Excluding AI infrastructure prepayments, FCF was +RMB37.6bn — the cash engine holds.</li>
<li>Maintain BULLISH view with unchanged TP of HK$670 — SOTP at 20x games&amp;marketing earnings, 4.0–4.5x fintech and cloud revenue; net cash erosion offset by marketing and cloud estimate upgrades.</li>
</ul>


Domestic games +17% YoY, not the feared decline. Spring Festival deferrals released as expected; deferred revenue grew RMB23bn — the 3Q revenue set-up is intact.
Capex RMB52.8bn (+176% YoY) was the one real miss; FCF turned -RMB13.8bn. Excluding AI infrastructure prepayments, FCF was +RMB37.6bn — the cash engine holds.
Maintain BULLISH view with unchanged TP of HK$670 — SOTP at 20x games&amp;marketing earnings, 4.0–4.5x fintech and cloud revenue; net cash erosion offset by marketing and cloud estimate upgrades.


Tencent (700 HK) 2Q FY2026 Review: The Shorts Were Wrong — Now the Capex Is the Story

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Game revenue returned to double digits due to the new game "Roco Kingdom: World".</li>
<li>AI accelerated the advertising revenue growth to two years high.</li>
<li>But AI research and development raised general and admin expenses.</li>
</ul>


Game revenue returned to double digits due to the new game "Roco Kingdom: World".
AI accelerated the advertising revenue growth to two years high.
But AI research and development raised general and admin expenses.


Tencent (700 HK): 2Q26, Revenue Growth Back to Double Digits.

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> will report earnings on August 12th. This tactical view updates the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-700-hk-tactical-outlook-imminent-pullback-buy-entry-ahead-of-q2-earnings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tencent's analysis presented on July 17th</a> with new support and targets calculated ahead of the earnings.</li>
<li>The Market expectation is framed as solid core operational delivery under margin pressure. Any minimal disappointment could lead to a (continuation of the) sell-off.</li>
<li>At the end of last week our model flagged the stock as overbought. Although a continuation of the rally is possible for a third week or more, it appears unlikely.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) will report earnings on August 12th. This tactical view updates the Tencent's analysis presented on July 17th with new support and targets calculated ahead of the earnings.
The Market expectation is framed as solid core operational delivery under margin pressure. Any minimal disappointment could lead to a (continuation of the) sell-off.
At the end of last week our model flagged the stock as overbought. Although a continuation of the rally is possible for a third week or more, it appears unlikely.


Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Earnings: Possible Sell-Off, Buy the Dip

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved is higher than in 2023 and 2024.</li>
<li>The pace of China game approval is above its pre-tightening level of August 2020 to July 2021.</li>
<li>Of the companies that we are monitoring, none got approval.</li>
</ul>


China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved is higher than in 2023 and 2024.
The pace of China game approval is above its pre-tightening level of August 2020 to July 2021.
Of the companies that we are monitoring, none got approval.


Tencent/Netease: Two Months Without Approvals Despite Second-Highest Count Since 2022

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>will announce H1 2026 results on 12 Aug, with 14 Aug options providing direct exposure to the earnings event.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Historical earnings-day moves have been modest in absolute terms but remain above the current option-implied move, despite realised and implied volatility sitting near the top of their historical ranges.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into Tencent’s earnings-day price history, option-implied move, volatility term structure, and trade implications around straddles and calendar spreads.</li>
</ul>



Context: Tencent (700 HK)will announce H1 2026 results on 12 Aug, with 14 Aug options providing direct exposure to the earnings event.

Highlight: Historical earnings-day moves have been modest in absolute terms but remain above the current option-implied move, despite realised and implied volatility sitting near the top of their historical ranges.

Why Read: Gain insight into Tencent’s earnings-day price history, option-implied move, volatility term structure, and trade implications around straddles and calendar spreads.


Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 12 Aug: Elevated Volatility, Modest Implied Move

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Tencent (700 HK) 2Q FY2026 Review: The Shorts Were Wrong — Now the Capex Is the Story

Domestic games +17%, thesis confirmed. Capex RMB53bn is the surprise but prepayments explain it. BULLISH, SOTP HK$670, +41%. Xiaowei and Hy4 remain...

Mo Aziz

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q26, Revenue Growth Back to Double Digits.

Game revenue returned to double digits due to the new game Roco Kingdom. AI accelerated the advertising revenue growth to two years high. But AI...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Earnings: Possible Sell-Off, Buy the Dip

Tencent’s (700 HK) Aug 12 earnings are expected to reflect solid core operations despite margin pressure. Sell-off may continue unless results...

Nico Rosti

Tencent/Netease: Two Months Without Approvals Despite Second-Highest Count Since 2022

NPPA released its September 2026 domestic game approval batch. None of the companies we track received approval despite the overall approval count...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 12 Aug: Elevated Volatility, Modest Implied Move

Update: Tencent reports tomorrow evening (HKT), and the new 21 Aug weekly expiry has now listed. The IV term structure has steepened sharply into...

Gaudenz Schneider

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