Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Some of Hong Kong’s largest and most prominent companies will report in the coming days, representing 20% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>
Highlight: This Insight quantifies option-implied swings which serve as a gauge for post-earnings reactions.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Prepare for a busy earnings week by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.</li>
</ul>



Context: Some of Hong Kong’s largest and most prominent companies will report in the coming days, representing 20% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) 

Highlight: This Insight quantifies option-implied swings which serve as a gauge for post-earnings reactions.

Why Read: Prepare for a busy earnings week by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.


Earnings Volatility Preview: Options Price Sharp Swings in China Tech Earnings Week

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While approximately 80% of pair trades play out according to plan, a small subset of trades fails to produce a trade close signal within the expected timeframe.</li>
<li>This Insight investigates the phenomenon of parameter drift and how to manage its adverse effects.</li>
<li>Analyzing challenging trades provides valuable insights into model behavior, enhancing both risk management and preparedness for future market shifts.</li>
</ul>


While approximately 80% of pair trades play out according to plan, a small subset of trades fails to produce a trade close signal within the expected timeframe.
This Insight investigates the phenomenon of parameter drift and how to manage its adverse effects.
Analyzing challenging trades provides valuable insights into model behavior, enhancing both risk management and preparedness for future market shifts.


When the Model Chases the Price: Lessons from Two Long-Running Pair Trades

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>Tencent has 1.4 billion users on Weixin/WeChat, establishing it as a leading digital platform.</li><li>The company is positioned to enhance monetization through AI integration across its services.</li><li>Despite its strengths, Tencent's core business is undervalued, trading at 14 times the consensus 2026 earnings per share.</li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)Tencent has 1.4 billion users on Weixin/WeChat, establishing it as a leading digital platform.The company is positioned to enhance monetization through AI integration across its services.Despite its strengths, Tencent's core business is undervalued, trading at 14 times the consensus 2026 earnings per share.This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Tencent Holdings Ltd (TCTZF) - Friday, Jul 25, 2025

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>China announced game approval for the October batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.</li>
<li>The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.</li>
<li>Of the companies that we are monitoring, none got approval.</li>
</ul>


China announced game approval for the October batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
Of the companies that we are monitoring, none got approval.


Tencent/Netease: Zero for Big Names Despite Optimism in October

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week as OpenAI cut Luna pricing and Chinese models kept cost pressure visible.</li>
<li>Zhipu returned GLM Coding Plan at higher prices. DeepSeek V4 Flash, Kimi K3 and MiniMax H3 carried the model-launch week.</li>
<li>Anthropic logged safety incidents and open-weight policy. Nvidia backed SSI and discussed OpenAI data-center financing.</li>
</ul>


We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week as OpenAI cut Luna pricing and Chinese models kept cost pressure visible.
Zhipu returned GLM Coding Plan at higher prices. DeepSeek V4 Flash, Kimi K3 and MiniMax H3 carried the model-launch week.
Anthropic logged safety incidents and open-weight policy. Nvidia backed SSI and discussed OpenAI data-center financing.


This Week in AI (Jul 26-Aug 1): DeepSeek V4 Flash, OpenAI Cuts Luna Prices

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Earnings Volatility Preview: Options Price Sharp Swings in China Tech Earnings Week

Option markets hint at sharp post-earnings reactions in some of China's top tech companies. Prepare for elevated volatility.

Gaudenz Schneider

When the Model Chases the Price: Lessons from Two Long-Running Pair Trades

A live example featuring Tencent shows how persistent price moves can cause parameter drift. The case study focuses on mitigation strategies and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent Holdings Ltd (TCTZF) - Friday, Jul 25, 2025

The Tencent Investment Memo highlights its 1.4 billion Weixin/WeChat users and argues the market undervalues its AI-driven monetization potential...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Tencent/Netease: Zero for Big Names Despite Optimism in October

China approves October batch of games at a higher level than 2023, with accelerated pace resembling pre-tightening, but none of the monitored...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

This Week in AI (Jul 26-Aug 1): DeepSeek V4 Flash, OpenAI Cuts Luna Prices

This week in AI: GPT-5.6 Luna price -80%; DeepSeek V4 Flash beta ships; Zhipu GLM returns at higher prices; Kimi K3 opens weights.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Earnings Volatility Preview: Options Price Sharp Swings in China Tech Earnings Week

Option markets hint at sharp post-earnings reactions in some of China's top tech companies. Prepare for elevated volatility.

Gaudenz Schneider

When the Model Chases the Price: Lessons from Two Long-Running Pair Trades

A live example featuring Tencent shows how persistent price moves can cause parameter drift. The case study focuses on mitigation strategies and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent Holdings Ltd (TCTZF) - Friday, Jul 25, 2025

The Tencent Investment Memo highlights its 1.4 billion Weixin/WeChat users and argues the market undervalues its AI-driven monetization potential...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Tencent/Netease: Zero for Big Names Despite Optimism in October

​China approves October batch of games at a higher level than 2023, with accelerated pace resembling pre-tightening, but none of the monitored...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

This Week in AI (Jul 26-Aug 1): DeepSeek V4 Flash, OpenAI Cuts Luna Prices

This week in AI: GPT-5.6 Luna price -80%; DeepSeek V4 Flash beta ships; Zhipu GLM returns at higher prices; Kimi K3 opens weights.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China approves October batch of games at a higher level than 2023, with accelerated pace resembling pre-tightening, but none of the monitored...