IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> is a Chinese online video platform themed around anime, manga, and game fandom and targeted at the young generations in China. Bilibili ranked top five in terms of brand awareness in Gen Z+ users among video-centric platforms in China in 2020, according to iResearch. Bilibili passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $3 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. </p><p>Bilibili’s focus on Gen Z+ users allows it to benefit from their growing consumption needs in conjunction with their increasing spending power. Bilibili is one of the fastest-growing major Chinese internet companies. The revenue growth is increasingly fuelled by the creation of more consumption scenarios and higher paying user conversion. Largely due to the high growth narrative, Bilibili gets a free pass from investors on the widening losses and FCF burn. Nevertheless, Bilibili’s ambition is to deliver operating leverage and FCF generation over the medium-term, which is reflected in consensus estimates. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, Bilibili has made great strides in expanding its user base (Gen Z to Gen Z+) and subsequently monetising this expanded user base through the diversification of its revenue streams and lowering its reliance on key games titles. The top-line metrics are strong, and the bottom-line metrics will likely improve in the medium term, in our view. Overall, we believe that Bilibili is fairly valued at the last close, and would look at any share price weakness to add/build a position. </p></div>

Bilibili Inc (BILI US) is a Chinese online video platform themed around anime, manga, and game fandom and targeted at the young generations in China. Bilibili ranked top five in terms of brand awareness in Gen Z+ users among video-centric platforms in China in 2020, according to iResearch. Bilibili passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $3 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. Bilibili’s focus on Gen Z+ users allows it to benefit from their growing consumption needs in conjunction with their increasing spending power. Bilibili is one of the fastest-growing major Chinese internet companies. The revenue growth is increasingly fuelled by the creation of more consumption scenarios and higher paying user conversion. Largely due to the high growth narrative, Bilibili gets a free pass from investors on the widening losses and FCF burn. Nevertheless, Bilibili’s ambition is to deliver operating leverage and FCF generation over the medium-term, which is reflected in consensus estimates. Overall, Bilibili has made great strides in expanding its user base (Gen Z to Gen Z+) and subsequently monetising this expanded user base through the diversification of its revenue streams and lowering its reliance on key games titles. The top-line metrics are strong, and the bottom-line metrics will likely improve in the medium term, in our view. Overall, we believe that Bilibili is fairly valued at the last close, and would look at any share price weakness to add/build a position. 

Bilibili Secondary Listing: A Big-Sum Game

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p>Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.</p></div><div><p>Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.</p></div><div><p>We have various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-positives-largest-independent-big-data-analytics-provider" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider ,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-negatives-playing-with-its-own-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-peer-comparison-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and Valuation</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the updates from its recently filed PHIP.</p></div>

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.We have various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider , Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data and Bairong Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and Valuation.In this note, we will talk about the updates from its recently filed PHIP.

Bairong Pre-IPO - PHIP and Valuation Updates - Better 4Q20, but Client Data Isn’t as Encouraging

Event-Driven

<div><p>On 22nd March 2018, after market close in Hong Kong one of the largest overnight placements was launched. On that day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> reluctantly sold US$10bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> shares.  <span>I say reluctantly because Naspers provided a three year lock-up at the time of the deal. That lock-up will expire next week. </span></p></div><div><p>We have covered the previous placement in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-placement-huge-deal-in-size-small-in-relative-terms-succumbing-to-the-holdco-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tencent Placement - Huge Deal in Size, Small in Relative Terms - Succumbing to the HoldCo Discount</a> and spoken about the implications of the lock-up expiry in our Feb 2021 note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-placement-lock-up-expiry-us-10bn-block-and-buyback-linked-holdco-trade" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tencent Placement Lock-Up Expiry - US$10bn+ Block and Buyback Linked Holdco Trade</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note, I’ll talk about the updates since then.</p></div>

On 22nd March 2018, after market close in Hong Kong one of the largest overnight placements was launched. On that day, Naspers (NPN SJ) reluctantly sold US$10bn worth of Tencent Holdings (700 HK) shares.  I say reluctantly because Naspers provided a three year lock-up at the time of the deal. That lock-up will expire next week. We have covered the previous placement in our earlier note, Tencent Placement - Huge Deal in Size, Small in Relative Terms - Succumbing to the HoldCo Discount and spoken about the implications of the lock-up expiry in our Feb 2021 note Tencent Placement Lock-Up Expiry - US$10bn+ Block and Buyback Linked Holdco Trade.In this note, I’ll talk about the updates since then.

Tencent Placement Lock-Up Expiry -  Block and Buyback Linked Holdco Trade Update

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Rakuten’s announcement of a ¥242bn investment from Japan Post, Tencent and Wal-Mart is truly a game changer. The proceeds should get it through peak investment for mobile and enhance the value of its fulfilment expansion. It also gives Rakuten, which has looked outmatched in its competitive fight against larger rivals like Softbank/Z Holdings, a trip of powerful allies in eCommerce and fintech. The Tencent participation is particularly interesting as that company expands its own competitive fight with Alibaba. The challenge for Rakuten has not diminished but for the first time since it announced its mobile ambitions in 2017, we feel it has the resources it needs.</p>

Rakuten’s announcement of a ¥242bn investment from Japan Post, Tencent and Wal-Mart is truly a game changer. The proceeds should get it through peak investment for mobile and enhance the value of its fulfilment expansion. It also gives Rakuten, which has looked outmatched in its competitive fight against larger rivals like Softbank/Z Holdings, a trip of powerful allies in eCommerce and fintech. The Tencent participation is particularly interesting as that company expands its own competitive fight with Alibaba. The challenge for Rakuten has not diminished but for the first time since it announced its mobile ambitions in 2017, we feel it has the resources it needs.

Rakuten - Strategic Investments Raise Needed Cash and Level the Playing Field

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>Hellobike, an Alibaba’s investee and traffic source, will go public in 2Q21.</li>
<li>NetEase’s Cloud Music is seeking IPO next year.</li>
<li>The authorities said Tencent and Baidu were fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval.</li>
<li>Tencent invests in Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


Hellobike, an Alibaba’s investee and traffic source, will go public in 2Q21.
NetEase’s Cloud Music is seeking IPO next year.
The authorities said Tencent and Baidu were fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval.
Tencent invests in Rakuten.


China Internet Weekly (Mar 15): BABA & NTES Subsidiaries Seek IPO, Tencent Invests in Rakuten

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Bilibili Secondary Listing: A Big-Sum Game

Bilibili could raise up to $3 bn through a secondary listing, according to press reports. It is fairly valued at the last close and would look at...

Arun George

Bairong Pre-IPO - PHIP and Valuation Updates - Better 4Q20, but Client Data Isn’t as Encouraging

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$500m in its HK...

Sumeet Singh

Tencent Placement Lock-Up Expiry - Block and Buyback Linked Holdco Trade Update

On 22nd March 2018, in Hong Kong one of the largest overnight placements was launched. On that day, Naspers sold US$10bn worth of Tencent shares....

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten - Strategic Investments Raise Needed Cash and Level the Playing Field

The investments in Rakuten solve near-term cash concerns but it is the presence of powerful allies that make this a milestone

Kirk Boodry

China Internet Weekly (Mar 15): BABA & NTES Subsidiaries Seek IPO, Tencent Invests in Rakuten

Tencent was fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval. Tencent invests in Rakuten. Hellobike and...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)