Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo's (PDD US)</a> share price skyrocketed 6x in the last 12 months and 2.2x since the regulators released the anti-monopoly guidelines (AML) and opened an investigation on Alibaba on 10 November 2020. We believe investors flocked to PDD as they interpreted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group's (BABA US)</a> loss as PDD's gain. The current price level implies a 54% Price to GMV premium to Alibaba.There are five reasons why I would consider cashing in the chips and look for better value in Alibaba: 1) Better operating metrics2) Cheaper valuations3) Greater operating efficiency4) PDD's execution risk5) Is PDD really immune from AML?

Pinduoduo's (PDD US) share price skyrocketed 6x in the last 12 months and 2.2x since the regulators released the anti-monopoly guidelines (AML) and opened an investigation on Alibaba on 10 November 2020. We believe investors flocked to PDD as they interpreted Alibaba Group's (BABA US) loss as PDD's gain. The current price level implies a 54% Price to GMV premium to Alibaba.There are five reasons why I would consider cashing in the chips and look for better value in Alibaba: 1) Better operating metrics2) Cheaper valuations3) Greater operating efficiency4) PDD's execution risk5) Is PDD really immune from AML?  

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Know When to Fold, Know When to Run

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Private Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> just had a vote of confidence in its digital financial strategy, with GIC (Singapore's Sovereign Wealth Fund) revealing that it will invest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a>, where Gojek recently increased its own stake to 22.16%. 
GIC will invest around US$225m to acquire circa 9% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a> through a rights issue to take place in March.
The Indonesian bank is already in the process of transforming itself into a digital bank but bringing in GIC as a shareholder will bring comfort in terms of governance of the bank, as well as obviously bringing new funds.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a> will secure IDR7tn or US$497.3m through the issuance of new shares, increasing its total capital to IDR8tn or US$564.4m.
The potential customer base for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a> will be even larger assuming the Gojek-Tokopedia merger goes through, opening up Tokopedia's customers and sellers as potential customers. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> is not standing still on digital finance in Indonesia and has recently acquired a local bank Bank BKE, which has been renamed SeaBank, which we also discuss below. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> probably represents the most serious potential competitive threat for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a>.
<div class="content-highlight">
Valuations for the merged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> have crept up to US$35bn-US$40bn and no doubt an early success with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a> will help it command a higher multiple on the listing of the combined entity. 
</div>

Gojek (1379371D IJ) just had a vote of confidence in its digital financial strategy, with GIC (Singapore's Sovereign Wealth Fund) revealing that it will invest in Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ), where Gojek recently increased its own stake to 22.16%. 
GIC will invest around US$225m to acquire circa 9% stake in Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ) through a rights issue to take place in March.
The Indonesian bank is already in the process of transforming itself into a digital bank but bringing in GIC as a shareholder will bring comfort in terms of governance of the bank, as well as obviously bringing new funds.
Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ) will secure IDR7tn or US$497.3m through the issuance of new shares, increasing its total capital to IDR8tn or US$564.4m.
The potential customer base for Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ) will be even larger assuming the Gojek-Tokopedia merger goes through, opening up Tokopedia's customers and sellers as potential customers. 
Sea Ltd (SE US) is not standing still on digital finance in Indonesia and has recently acquired a local bank Bank BKE, which has been renamed SeaBank, which we also discuss below. Sea Ltd (SE US) probably represents the most serious potential competitive threat for Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ).

Valuations for the merged Gojek (1379371D IJ) and Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) have crept up to US$35bn-US$40bn and no doubt an early success with Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ) will help it command a higher multiple on the listing of the combined entity. 


Gojek (1379371D IJ) - A Leg Up for Digital Finance?

In this report, we summarize the potential impact of the Internet consumer lending guidelines announced by CBIRC on Ant Group and why its value remains intact, which bodes well for the underperformed Alibaba shares.  We provide a more in-depth look at the following: <ul>
<li>Ant’s revised valuation and sensitivity analyses focusing on consumer loan growth assumption and various valuation multiples.</li>
<li>The argument for why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> shares were excessively penalized when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> remains unscathed.</li>
<li>Our own Ant Group’s financial forecasts.</li>
<li>A closer look at each of Ant's business segments and their monetization rates.</li>
<li>Ant’s market share by segment. </li>
</ul>

In this report, we summarize the potential impact of the Internet consumer lending guidelines announced by CBIRC on Ant Group and why its value remains intact, which bodes well for the underperformed Alibaba shares.  We provide a more in-depth look at the following: 
Ant’s revised valuation and sensitivity analyses focusing on consumer loan growth assumption and various valuation multiples.
The argument for why Alibaba Group (BABA US) shares were excessively penalized when Tencent Holdings (700 HK) remains unscathed.
Our own Ant Group’s financial forecasts.
A closer look at each of Ant's business segments and their monetization rates.
Ant’s market share by segment. 


Alibaba (BABA US): Ant Group Woes Overly Priced-In

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Autohome Inc (Adr) / Equity Capital Markets

Autohome plans to raise around US$1bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. The company is said to have filed confidentially in Jan 2021 and won approval from HKEX last week.<div>Including Baba, so far ten companies have undertaken a secondary listing in Hong Kong, raising a total of US$28bn with a range of US$0.5-11.4bn. Along with covering all of the past listings, we have also looked at the drivers for the secondary listings in our earlier notes, links to which are below: </div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline looks rich, have three years to move</a>, published in Feb 2021, we looked at the recent updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act and Hong Kong Exchanges changes to corporate weighted average voting rights. In this note, we’ll take an early look at the deal and talk about likely timing and impact of the raising.</li>
</ul>
In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the likely impact of the raising.
</div>

Autohome plans to raise around US$1bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. The company is said to have filed confidentially in Jan 2021 and won approval from HKEX last week.Including Baba, so far ten companies have undertaken a secondary listing in Hong Kong, raising a total of US$28bn with a range of US$0.5-11.4bn. Along with covering all of the past listings, we have also looked at the drivers for the secondary listings in our earlier notes, links to which are below: 


China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline looks rich, have three years to move, published in Feb 2021, we looked at the recent updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act and Hong Kong Exchanges changes to corporate weighted average voting rights. In this note, we’ll take an early look at the deal and talk about likely timing and impact of the raising.

In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the likely impact of the raising.


Autohome Secondary Listing - Doesn’t Need the Cash at All

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Beijing Jingneng, Maeda Road, Justbon, Tencent, Intouch, JCCC/​Astra

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Know When to Fold, Know When to Run

Pinduoduo's (PDD US) share price jumped 2.2x since last November. The company will have a tough time meeting lofty consensus expectations. Rotate...

Mitchell Kim

Gojek (1379371D IJ) - A Leg Up for Digital Finance?

The move by GIC to invest in Bank Jago represents a vote of confidence in Gojek's digital financial strategy and places it ahead of its competitors...

Angus Mackintosh

Alibaba (BABA US): Ant Group Woes Overly Priced-In

In this report, we summarize the potential impact of the recently announced regulation by CBIRC on Ant Group and why its value remains intact,...

Mitchell Kim

Autohome Secondary Listing - Doesn’t Need the Cash at All

Autohome plans to raise around US$1bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. The company is said to have filed confidentially in Jan 2021 and won...

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Beijing Jingneng, Maeda Road, Justbon, Tencent, Intouch, JCCC/Astra

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Know When to Fold, Know When to Run

Pinduoduo's (PDD US) share price jumped 2.2x since last November. The company will have a tough time meeting lofty consensus expectations. Rotate...

Mitchell Kim

Gojek (1379371D IJ) - A Leg Up for Digital Finance?

The move by GIC to invest in Bank Jago represents a vote of confidence in Gojek's digital financial strategy and places it ahead of its competitors...

Angus Mackintosh

Alibaba (BABA US): Ant Group Woes Overly Priced-In

In this report, we summarize the potential impact of the recently announced regulation by CBIRC on Ant Group and why its value remains intact,...

Mitchell Kim

Autohome Secondary Listing - Doesn’t Need the Cash at All

Autohome plans to raise around US$1bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. The company is said to have filed confidentially in Jan 2021 and won...

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Beijing Jingneng, Maeda Road, Justbon, Tencent, Intouch, JCCC/​Astra

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Beijing Jingneng, Maeda Road, Justbon, Tencent, Intouch, JCCC/Astra