Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2>
<ul>
<li>Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property firm </li>
<li>Stay home, stay safe, spend more</li>
<li>Sell those exports like imports </li>
<li>Chinese firms choose own capital markets</li>
<li>Roaring (quietly) once more, electric vehicles excite China </li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p>
</div>

China News That Matters

Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property firm 
Stay home, stay safe, spend more
Sell those exports like imports 
Chinese firms choose own capital markets
Roaring (quietly) once more, electric vehicles excite China 


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Evergrande/ Golden Week/ Economy/ US-China/ Autos

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>Tencent shows mounting pressure to crack the 502 triple low support with bull energy brewing near the 175 support. Tencent has held up remarkably well during the HSI breakdown from trendline support. A bend lower hinges on a full on bet that the HSI re tests the March low zone as US tech comes under a second wave of pressure in October.</p><p>We still like Tencent as a core holding.</p><p>This is an update from our call to trade Tencent higher from 510 to 560 and reverse to short (traders) to pressure 510. This short trade needs to break 502 to reach the 470-75 target, where we like adding back to Tencent with a macro support back at the May/June congestion zone.</p>

Tencent shows mounting pressure to crack the 502 triple low support with bull energy brewing near the 175 support. Tencent has held up remarkably well during the HSI breakdown from trendline support. A bend lower hinges on a full on bet that the HSI re tests the March low zone as US tech comes under a second wave of pressure in October.We still like Tencent as a core holding.This is an update from our call to trade Tencent higher from 510 to 560 and reverse to short (traders) to pressure 510. This short trade needs to break 502 to reach the 470-75 target, where we like adding back to Tencent with a macro support back at the May/June congestion zone.

Tencent Bull Energy Brewing Below 502 Pivot

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>In this insight, we go through the details of Tencent's numerous investments in Korea and try to estimate how much money it has made from them. Tencent started to invest in Korean companies about 14 years ago. Most of its big investments in Korea including Krafton Games, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> were made in the past decade. </p>
<p>We also discuss the US government's increasingly hostile stance on Tencent and other major Chinese tech companies and discuss the probabilities of the US government potentially following India's hard-line policy of removing major Chinese apps. </p>
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In this insight, we go through the details of Tencent's numerous investments in Korea and try to estimate how much money it has made from them. Tencent started to invest in Korean companies about 14 years ago. Most of its big investments in Korea including Krafton Games, Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS), and Kakao Corp (035720 KS) were made in the past decade. 
We also discuss the US government's increasingly hostile stance on Tencent and other major Chinese tech companies and discuss the probabilities of the US government potentially following India's hard-line policy of removing major Chinese apps. 


Tencent's Home-Run Investments in Korea & Will US Follow India's Move to Remove Tencent's Apps?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Back on the 27 July, Chinese search-engine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sogou-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25996:1" rel="noopener">Sogou Inc (SOGO US)</a>, majority-owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener">Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="http://ir.sogou.com/2020-07-27-Sogou-Announces-Receipt-of-a-Preliminary-Non-Binding-Proposal-to-Acquire-the-Company" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it has received a preliminary non-binding proposal from Tencent to acquire all of its outstanding ordinary shares that are not already owned by Tencent, for US$9.00 in cash per ordinary share or ADS. The Offer price is a 57% premium to the undisturbed price and a two-year high.</p>
<p>Today Sogou <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115257193&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=SOGO&amp;companyName=Sogou+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+one+Class+A&amp;formType=6-K&amp;dateFiled=2020-09-29&amp;CK=1713947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> into a definitive agreement for a Going-Private Transaction at the same Offer price of US$9/share.</p>
<p>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener">Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)</a> has entered into a share purchase agreement with Tencent concerning its stake in Sogou, the completion of which will result in Tencent holding not less than 90% of the voting power in Sogou.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Therefore the Merger will be in the form of a short-form merger as per section 233(7) of the <em><a href="https://www.cima.ky/upimages/commonfiles/CompaniesLaw2020Revision_1579811065.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Companies Law of the Cayman Islands</a></em> - there is no vote. There are no dissenting rights.</p>
<p>Done deal - the Merger is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 27 July, Chinese search-engine Sogou Inc (SOGO US), majority-owned by Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)  and Tencent Holdings (700 HK), announced it has received a preliminary non-binding proposal from Tencent to acquire all of its outstanding ordinary shares that are not already owned by Tencent, for US$9.00 in cash per ordinary share or ADS. The Offer price is a 57% premium to the undisturbed price and a two-year high.
Today Sogou entered into a definitive agreement for a Going-Private Transaction at the same Offer price of US$9/share.
Separately, Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US) has entered into a share purchase agreement with Tencent concerning its stake in Sogou, the completion of which will result in Tencent holding not less than 90% of the voting power in Sogou.


Therefore the Merger will be in the form of a short-form merger as per section 233(7) of the Companies Law of the Cayman Islands - there is no vote. There are no dissenting rights.
Done deal - the Merger is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2020.


More below the fold.


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong><em>*Export Restrictions On SMIC: </em></strong>The US Commerce Department has reportedly imposed export restrictions on mainland China’s SMIC (largest semiconductor firm), with American US firms being required to apply for a license in order to export certain products to SMIC. These restrictions were reportedly implemented due to "an unacceptable risk of diversion to a military end use" and confirmed the recent market speculation of US action against SMIC;</p><p><strong><em>*Unreliable Entity List: </em></strong>Mainland China’s Ministry of Commerce finally issued regulations for its “unreliable entity” list aimed at foreign companies that it deems endanger national sovereignty, security, or development interests. Companies which end up on the list could be banned from importing/exporting from/to mainland China, and may be barred from investing in the country; and</p><p><strong><em>*Taiwan Flashpoint Coming:</em></strong> Rhetoric between is also being ramped up militarily between both sides over Taiwan, as the US government is contemplating providing Taiwan with an advanced defensive system and provocations of more "high-level official visits to Taiwan" by U.S. officials.</p>

*Export Restrictions On SMIC: The US Commerce Department has reportedly imposed export restrictions on mainland China’s SMIC (largest semiconductor firm), with American US firms being required to apply for a license in order to export certain products to SMIC. These restrictions were reportedly implemented due to "an unacceptable risk of diversion to a military end use" and confirmed the recent market speculation of US action against SMIC;*Unreliable Entity List: Mainland China’s Ministry of Commerce finally issued regulations for its “unreliable entity” list aimed at foreign companies that it deems endanger national sovereignty, security, or development interests. Companies which end up on the list could be banned from importing/exporting from/to mainland China, and may be barred from investing in the country; and*Taiwan Flashpoint Coming: Rhetoric between is also being ramped up militarily between both sides over Taiwan, as the US government is contemplating providing Taiwan with an advanced defensive system and provocations of more "high-level official visits to Taiwan" by U.S. officials.

Trump Administration Continues to Ratchet Up The Pressure

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Evergrande/ Golden Week/ Economy/ US-China/ Autos

China News That Matters

Diana Choyleva

Tencent Bull Energy Brewing Below 502 Pivot

Tencent shows mounting pressure to crack the 502 triple low support with bull energy brewing near the 175 support. Tencent has held up remarkably...

Thomas Schroeder

Tencent's Home-Run Investments in Korea & Will US Follow India's Move to Remove Tencent's Apps?

We go through the details of Tencent's numerous investments in Korea and try to estimate how much money it has made from them. Tencent started to...

Douglas Kim

Sogou/Tencent: And That's A Wrap

Chinese search-engine Sogou Inc (SOGO US), majority-owned by Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US) and Tencent Holdings (700 HK), has announced it has received...

David Blennerhassett

Trump Administration Continues to Ratchet Up The Pressure

*Export Restrictions On SMIC: The US Commerce Department has reportedly imposed export restrictions on mainland China’s SMIC (largest semiconductor...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Evergrande/ Golden Week/ Economy/ US-China/ Autos

China News That Matters

Diana Choyleva

Tencent Bull Energy Brewing Below 502 Pivot

Tencent shows mounting pressure to crack the 502 triple low support with bull energy brewing near the 175 support. Tencent has held up remarkably...

Thomas Schroeder

Tencent's Home-Run Investments in Korea & Will US Follow India's Move to Remove Tencent's Apps?

We go through the details of Tencent's numerous investments in Korea and try to estimate how much money it has made from them. Tencent started to...

Douglas Kim

Sogou/​Tencent: And That's A Wrap

Chinese search-engine Sogou Inc (SOGO US), majority-owned by Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US) and Tencent Holdings (700 HK), has announced it has received...

David Blennerhassett

Trump Administration Continues to Ratchet Up The Pressure

*Export Restrictions On SMIC: The US Commerce Department has reportedly imposed export restrictions on mainland China’s SMIC (largest semiconductor...

Thomas J. Monaco

Sogou/Tencent: And That's A Wrap