Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> is set to report its latest financial results tomorrow, Tuesday 25 March, after market close.</li>
<li>
<strong>Expected Price Movement:</strong> Historical median price movement post-earnings is 5.6%, with option implied movement at 5.9%, indicating consistent expectations.</li>
<li>
<strong>Options Strategies:</strong> Discussion of option strategies and trading opportunities, or the lack thereof, based on the narrow margin of the March 28 straddle pricing.</li>
</ul>



Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) is set to report its latest financial results tomorrow, Tuesday 25 March, after market close.

Expected Price Movement: Historical median price movement post-earnings is 5.6%, with option implied movement at 5.9%, indicating consistent expectations.

Options Strategies: Discussion of option strategies and trading opportunities, or the lack thereof, based on the narrow margin of the March 28 straddle pricing.


Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) Earnings Tomorrow: Anticipated Price Movements

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TME’s revenue continued to grow in 4Q24, as shrinking game business became insignificant.</li>
<li>The operating margin reached its historical high, which means music’s margin is high than game’s.</li>
<li>We believe the stock price will be double at the end of 2025.</li>
</ul>


TME’s revenue continued to grow in 4Q24, as shrinking game business became insignificant.
The operating margin reached its historical high, which means music’s margin is high than game’s.
We believe the stock price will be double at the end of 2025.


Tencent Music (TME, 1698 HK): 4Q24, Historical Margins Better than Game Time

Mid-market focused investment bank within SE Asia, Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Evolve Capital Research

Mid-market focused investment bank within SE Asia

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Goodwill Entertainment Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goodwill-entertainment-holding-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44296:1" rel="noopener">Goodwill Entertainment Holding (GWEH SP)</a> is a multi-entertainment concept operator, comprising a network of family friendly karaoke facilities with F&amp;B concepts, performance halls and dance clubs.</li>
<li>It operates under the brand names HaveFun Family Karaoke, FATEbyhavefun and HaveFun Live Show.</li>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating on GEH with a TP of S$0.23, pegged to 4.6x FY25E EV/EBITDA, representing an upside of approximately 42.9%.</li>
</ul>



Goodwill Entertainment Holding (GWEH SP) is a multi-entertainment concept operator, comprising a network of family friendly karaoke facilities with F&amp;B concepts, performance halls and dance clubs.
It operates under the brand names HaveFun Family Karaoke, FATEbyhavefun and HaveFun Live Show.
We maintain our BUY rating on GEH with a TP of S$0.23, pegged to 4.6x FY25E EV/EBITDA, representing an upside of approximately 42.9%.


Goodwill Entertainment Holding - FY24 Earnings Update - Broadening Reach Within F&B and Nightlife

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> provided some much needed relief to the HK tea chains, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a> might not do the same this week.</li>
<li>On the placements front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>'s jumbo offering has been doing well, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> hasn't been correcting much.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Mixue Group (2097 HK) provided some much needed relief to the HK tea chains, Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) might not do the same this week.
On the placements front, BYD (1211 HK)'s jumbo offering has been doing well, while Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) hasn't been correcting much.


ECM Weekly (10th Mar 2025) - BYD, Japan Post, Mixue, Sanhua, Chifeng, Nanshan, Goertek, Travel Food

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.</li>
<li>The gross round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$41.1bn (US$5.3bn). The net round-trip trade is HK$37.3bn (US$4.8bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank</a> are the largest buys. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongan-online-p-c-insurance-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23681:1" rel="noopener">ZhongAn Online</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent </a>are the largest sells.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The gross round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$41.1bn (US$5.3bn). The net round-trip trade is HK$37.3bn (US$4.8bn).

Meituan ,  JD.com, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, ICBC, BeiGene, Kuaishou Technology and China Construction Bank are the largest buys. Alibaba, Xiaomi, HSBC, ZhongAn Online and Tencent are the largest sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)

China

Tencent Music Entertainment Group is China's leading online music and audio entertainment platform, offering music streaming, online karaoke, and music-centric live streaming services through popular apps like QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, and WeSing. The company also provides long-form audio content and generates revenue from music subscriptions, advertising, and artist merchandise. It was formally established in July 2016 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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Tencent Music Entertainment (1698 HK)

Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) Earnings Tomorrow: Anticipated Price Movements

Kuaishou Technology to report financial results today with consistent price movement expectations and limited options trading opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent Music (TME, 1698 HK): 4Q24, Historical Margins Better than Game Time

TME’s revenue continued to grow in 4Q24 and the operating margin reached its historical high. We believe the stock price will be double at the end...

Ming Lu

Goodwill Entertainment Holding - FY24 Earnings Update - Broadening Reach Within F&B and Nightlife

We maintain our BUY rating on GEH with a TP of S$0.23, pegged to 4.6x FY25E EV/EBITDA, representing an upside of approximately 42.9%.

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

ECM Weekly (10th Mar 2025) - BYD, Japan Post, Mixue, Sanhua, Chifeng, Nanshan, Goertek, Travel Food

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) Earnings Tomorrow: Anticipated Price Movements

​Kuaishou Technology to report financial results today with consistent price movement expectations and limited options trading opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent Music (TME, 1698 HK): 4Q24, Historical Margins Better than Game Time

TME’s revenue continued to grow in 4Q24 and the operating margin reached its historical high. We believe the stock price will be double at the end...

Ming Lu

Goodwill Entertainment Holding - FY24 Earnings Update - Broadening Reach Within F&B and Nightlife

We maintain our BUY rating on GEH with a TP of S$0.23, pegged to 4.6x FY25E EV/EBITDA, representing an upside of approximately 42.9%.

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

ECM Weekly (10th Mar 2025) - BYD, Japan Post, Mixue, Sanhua, Chifeng, Nanshan, Goertek, Travel Food

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four...

Brian Freitas

Kuaishou Technology to report financial results today with consistent price movement expectations and limited options trading opportunities.