Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Good numbers from Analog Devices pointing to a bottom should help likes of Rohm and Fuji Electric.</li>
<li>SMCI tear continues, will Nidec keep moving up after yesterdays gains?</li>
<li>Sanken Electric +10.45% yesterday finally starting to catch a bid on ALGM gains.</li>
</ul>


Good numbers from Analog Devices pointing to a bottom should help likes of Rohm and Fuji Electric.
SMCI tear continues, will Nidec keep moving up after yesterdays gains?
Sanken Electric +10.45% yesterday finally starting to catch a bid on ALGM gains.


Japan Morning Connection: Power/Analog Names Drive SOX Higher, Defence Down

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 3 days left in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> has a 11.29% weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. That means double capping in March.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.</li>
<li>Double capping will result in big selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.</li>
</ul>


With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.</li>
<li>The recent drop in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.

Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

<ul>
<li>Japan SPE names starting to stir day 1 of trading.</li>
<li>Watch oversold previous winners for renewed interest such as Disco, Screen and TEL now China concerns are priced in.</li>
<li>A good read for photoresist/semi-chem plays after TOK's better than expected MTP yesterday.</li>
</ul>


Japan SPE names starting to stir day 1 of trading.
Watch oversold previous winners for renewed interest such as Disco, Screen and TEL now China concerns are priced in.
A good read for photoresist/semi-chem plays after TOK's better than expected MTP yesterday.


AI Related Plays Out of the Gates Strong for 2025

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a>’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, Sanrio (8136 JP)’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Japan

Terumo Corporation is a manufacturer and supplier of pharmaceuticals and medical tools and equipment. The Company's products include health foods, transfusion and infusion equipment, disposable medical supply, clinical testing systems, artificial organs, and electronic thermometers. Terumo markets the products through its subsidiaries and sales offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

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Terumo (4543 JT)

Japan Morning Connection: Power/Analog Names Drive SOX Higher, Defence Down

Analog Devices' positive numbers should help the likes of Rohm and Fuji Electric. SMCI continues to move up. Sanken Electric sees gains following...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

With 4 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing is now in double capping zone which would require passives to sell 13.3m shares in March. If...

Brian Freitas

Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Power/Analog Names Drive SOX Higher, Defence Down

​Analog Devices' positive numbers should help the likes of Rohm and Fuji Electric. SMCI continues to move up. Sanken Electric sees gains following...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding

With 4 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing is now in double capping zone which would require passives to sell 13.3m shares in March. If...

Brian Freitas

AI Related Plays Out of the Gates Strong for 2025

​Watch JP SPE oversold previous winners like Disco, Screen, and TEL gaining renewed interest. A good read for photoresist/semi-chem plays after...

Andrew Jackson

Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

Analog Devices' positive numbers should help the likes of Rohm and Fuji Electric. SMCI continues to move up. Sanken Electric sees gains following...

Watch JP SPE oversold previous winners like Disco, Screen, and TEL gaining renewed interest. A good read for photoresist/semi-chem plays after...