Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>  is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison against some of its listed peers.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP)  is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison against some of its listed peers.


Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Leading in Growth, Lagging in Margins

<ul>
<li>On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.</li>
</ul>


On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.
At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.


Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97757" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97798" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case</a>.  </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
We previously discussed the IPO in Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case and Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case.  
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. We would participate in the IPO.


Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>An unprecedented pace of expansion is underway at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd</a> (a TATA group company) with the rapid roll-out of Zudio, a youth-fashion retail store chain across India, beyond big cities.</li>
<li>STAR Bazaar, its 50:50 JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22187:1" rel="noopener">Tesco PLC (TSCO LN)</a>, in grocery retail, has the potential to drive long term growth given the segment's immense size and scope. </li>
<li>Trent could emerge as one of the leading players in India's fast-growing organized retail sector as it rapidly expands its pan-India network in apparel and plans to grow in grocery. </li>
</ul>


An unprecedented pace of expansion is underway at Trent Ltd (a TATA group company) with the rapid roll-out of Zudio, a youth-fashion retail store chain across India, beyond big cities.
STAR Bazaar, its 50:50 JV with Tesco PLC (TSCO LN), in grocery retail, has the potential to drive long term growth given the segment's immense size and scope. 
Trent could emerge as one of the leading players in India's fast-growing organized retail sector as it rapidly expands its pan-India network in apparel and plans to grow in grocery. 


2023 High Conviction: Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) - Transformational Growth in Progress.

United Kingdom

Tesco plc is a food retailer.  The Group operates stores in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, China, Thailand, and the United States.

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Tesco PLC (TSCO LN)

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Leading in Growth, Lagging in Margins

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Europe/UK STOXX Europe 50/FTSE 100 with concerning breakdowns below 3800 and 7700, joining the pullback that had already started in the MSCI ACWI....

Vermilion Research

Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

2023 High Conviction: Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) - Transformational Growth in Progress.

Trent can emerge as one of the leading players in India's fast-growing organized retail segment; Better visibility and conviction of growth from...

Devi Subhakesan

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