Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>The pressure is on, again, to meet still ambitious market estimates for Q1 deliveries.</li>
<li>Last-Minute efforts on top of costly price cuts and expensive incentives will likely shrink margins even further.</li>
<li>Either way, Tesla seems likely to trail market expectations for deliveries, revenue, and/or profits for the first quarter.</li>
</ul>

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla's sales growth is yet to revert to a linear distribution, given Tesla's market share and the exponential growth attached to the EV space.</li>
<li>Rumors of a lithium mine acquisition and an additional Gigafactory indicate that Tesla is working toward a lower cost base.</li>
<li>It has been a rollercoaster ride for Tesla, Inc. (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper">NASDAQ:TSLA</span>) stock recently, as various market-based and idiosyncratic features coalesced to ramp up the asset's volatility.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>NHTSA has recalled all Teslas with FSDBeta, more than 362,000 cars. </li>
<li>This comes just before Tesla releases substantial upgrades to Autopilot including the return of radar. </li>
<li>Which means NO legacy Teslas really are FSD hardware ready, despite what CEO Elon Musk has claimed for years when selling the option for thousands of dollars</li>
</ul>

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Tesla reported a 6% Q4 EPS beat, but stripping out a one-off deferred revenue booking &amp; higher than expected regulatory credits, Q4 results missed by 9%.  </li>
<li>Tesla rose +5.5% post market close after Musk said YTD orders are "2x" output. None of the data we have seen implies such demand, especially weekly China sales. </li>
<li>What went unnoticed on the earnings call is that Tesla created a $7bn credit facility this month, which should dash all hopes of them doing a share buyback in 2023. </li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>The market says Tesla's 20-30% price cuts will reverse stalling demand, even though several rounds of expensive cuts &amp; incentives in Q4 didn't.</li>
<li>I'm not convinced, as shown in my 2023 model &amp; forecast.</li>
<li>Tesla apparently isn't either, as indicated by sharply lower guidance and apparently plans to ramp up debt to bolster cash.</li>
</ul>

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla Motors - TSLA US

Here We Go Again: Tesla Q1 Deliveries Tracking Another Miss

Tesla is running out of time and options to help it meet still ambitious market estimates for Q1 deliveries, revenue, and profits—as I had projected.

Vicki Bryan

Tesla: The Show Goes On

Tesla's sales growth is yet to revert to a linear distribution, given Tesla's market share and the exponential growth attached to the EV space.

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Hello, Comeuppance: NHTSA Recalls All Teslas with Auto Pilot FSDBeta

NHTSA recalled all Teslas with FSDBeta, 362,000 cars. This comes before substantial upgrades to Autopilot—including the return of radar. So NO...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Tesla sees a 9% earnings miss and warns that raw material headwinds remain in 2023. Recent consensus estimates for 2023 now imply at least a 2%...

SC Capital

Tesla's Demand Problems Aren't Going Away

The market says Tesla's 20-30% price cuts will reverse stalling demand, even though several rounds of expensive cuts & incentives in Q4 didn't. I'm...

Vicki Bryan

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