Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. </li>
<li>Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? </li>
<li>Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.</li>
</ul>


Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. 
Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? 
Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.


Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH: Xiaomi to start double-shift production of the SU7 in June （+/-/-/-/-）</li>
<li>1810 HK/1211 HK/ LI US/ NIO US/ XPEV US: The data shows that only 2% of FSD12 users are converted to paying users, which is good for China's automatic driving(//////////)</li>
<li>LI US / NIO US/1810 HK :Li Auto takes the lead in sales in the 18th week of 2024, while Xiaomi continues to lag behind（/////）</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH: Xiaomi to start double-shift production of the SU7 in June （+/-/-/-/-）
1810 HK/1211 HK/ LI US/ NIO US/ XPEV US: The data shows that only 2% of FSD12 users are converted to paying users, which is good for China's automatic driving(//////////)
LI US / NIO US/1810 HK :Li Auto takes the lead in sales in the 18th week of 2024, while Xiaomi continues to lag behind（/////）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Tesla Inc.'s accomplishments in 2023 were substantial, with record production and shipments of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, per the company's Q4 2023 earnings call transcript.</li><li>As well, in Q4, it was manufacturing vehicles at nearly 2 million cars per year, a remarkable achievement.</li><li>Tesla's Fremont factory alone produced 560,000 cars, solidifying its status as the highest production automotive plant in North America.</li></ul>

Tesla Inc.'s accomplishments in 2023 were substantial, with record production and shipments of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, per the company's Q4 2023 earnings call transcript.As well, in Q4, it was manufacturing vehicles at nearly 2 million cars per year, a remarkable achievement.Tesla's Fremont factory alone produced 560,000 cars, solidifying its status as the highest production automotive plant in North America.

Tesla Inc: What Factors Will Help It Survive The Rising Competition & Tapering EV Demand? - Major Drivers

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

<ul>
<li>As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a "beat."</li>
<li>Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model).</li>
<li>Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it's healthier, more profitable and more successful than it is, which greatly overstates its ability to weather the storm already upon it.</li>
</ul>


As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a "beat."
Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model).
Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it's healthier, more profitable and more successful than it is, which greatly overstates its ability to weather the storm already upon it.


Tesla: Moving The Goalposts Works Until It Doesn't

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.</li><li><p>I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.</p></li><li><p>For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future</p></li></ul><div data-component-name="DigestPostEmbed"><a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/chinese-evs-and-the-lagging-edge" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></div>

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

Xiaomi to start double-shift production of SU7, FSD12 users conversion rate low, Li Auto leads in sales in 18th week of 2024.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tesla Inc: What Factors Will Help It Survive The Rising Competition & Tapering EV Demand? - Major Drivers

Tesla Inc.'s accomplishments in 2023 were substantial, with record production and shipments of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, per the...

Baptista Research

Tesla: Moving The Goalposts Works Until It Doesn't

As I warned, troubled Q4 results tracked my ests but were worse than even plunging market ests following disappointing deliveries dubiously called...

Vicki Bryan

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

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Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

​Xiaomi to start double-shift production of SU7, FSD12 users conversion rate low, Li Auto leads in sales in 18th week of 2024.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tesla Inc: What Factors Will Help It Survive The Rising Competition & Tapering EV Demand? - Major Drivers

Tesla Inc.'s accomplishments in 2023 were substantial, with record production and shipments of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, per the...

Baptista Research

Tesla: Moving The Goalposts Works Until It Doesn't

As I warned, troubled Q4 results tracked my ests but were worse than even plunging market ests following disappointing deliveries dubiously called...

Vicki Bryan

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Xiaomi to start double-shift production of SU7, FSD12 users conversion rate low, Li Auto leads in sales in 18th week of 2024.