Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Crypto

<ul><li>Everyone is buzzing with anticipation, predicting a highly favorable year for crypto.</li><li> The general sentiment in the market suggests that 2024 will be a memorable year, drawing parallels to the positive environments witnessed in 2017 and 2021. </li><li>The crypto landscape was overshadowed by the dramatic collapse of FTX in November 2022, making 2022 end on a rather bleak note. </li></ul>

Everyone is buzzing with anticipation, predicting a highly favorable year for crypto. The general sentiment in the market suggests that 2024 will be a memorable year, drawing parallels to the positive environments witnessed in 2017 and 2021. The crypto landscape was overshadowed by the dramatic collapse of FTX in November 2022, making 2022 end on a rather bleak note. 

Crypto Moves #9 – Is It Too Obvious That 2024 is the Year of Crypto?

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets, Kaiko

Kaiko

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets

Kaiko is the leading cryptocurrency market data provider for institutional investors and enterprises. We empower market participants with accurate, transparent, and actionable financial data to be leveraged for a range of market activities. Kaiko’s mission is to be the foundation of the new digital finance economy by serving as a single source for market information. Our mission is premised on the idea that high-quality data drives market efficiency and greater transparency throughout the industry. For each of our enterprise clients, we build custom data plans designed for a range of use cases.

<ul><li>Exceptionally low liquidity, macro factors, and a flurry of bad news were among the drivers of last week's flash crash, pushing BTC to its lowest level in months and spurring a wave of liquidations across derivative markets. </li><li>While BTC 2% market depth has stabilized over the past few months at around 5k BTC, it remains more than 50% below its pre-FTX highs.</li><li>As BTC prices began falling towards $25k around 8pm UTC on August 17, market depth dropped 50% to just 2k BTC.</li></ul>

Exceptionally low liquidity, macro factors, and a flurry of bad news were among the drivers of last week's flash crash, pushing BTC to its lowest level in months and spurring a wave of liquidations across derivative markets. While BTC 2% market depth has stabilized over the past few months at around 5k BTC, it remains more than 50% below its pre-FTX highs.As BTC prices began falling towards $25k around 8pm UTC on August 17, market depth dropped 50% to just 2k BTC.

<ul><li>The Curve 3pool – long one of the most important sources of liquidity for DAI, USDC, and USDT – has continued to bleed this summer, shrinking by $175mn.</li><li>This outflow has been primarily led by USDC; users have withdrawn $125mn of Circle’s stablecoin.</li><li>By this metric, USDT has remained roughly even while $60mn DAI has been removed, $25mn of which came in just three transactions on July 31.</li></ul>

The Curve 3pool – long one of the most important sources of liquidity for DAI, USDC, and USDT – has continued to bleed this summer, shrinking by $175mn.This outflow has been primarily led by USDC; users have withdrawn $125mn of Circle’s stablecoin.By this metric, USDT has remained roughly even while $60mn DAI has been removed, $25mn of which came in just three transactions on July 31.

<ul><li>Curve's 3pool and Uniswap V3’s main USDT-USDC pool both became imbalanced heading into the weekend as USDT selling escalated.</li><li>However, this trend actually started in mid-July, with $100mn net selling on Uniswap from July 15 to July 22.</li><li>While the net selling eased in the last few weeks of July, it picked up again on July 31, the day after the Curve exploit (these two events seem to be unrelated).</li></ul>

Curve's 3pool and Uniswap V3’s main USDT-USDC pool both became imbalanced heading into the weekend as USDT selling escalated.However, this trend actually started in mid-July, with $100mn net selling on Uniswap from July 15 to July 22.While the net selling eased in the last few weeks of July, it picked up again on July 31, the day after the Curve exploit (these two events seem to be unrelated).

Tether Imbalance on Curve Raises Questions

<ul><li>Stablecoins are systemically important in cryptocurrency markets, so even the slightest depeg can cause mass market contagion.</li><li>As such, it is concerning that stablecoins have been particularly volatile since the start of 2023</li><li>TUSD wobbled amid Prime Trust's closure, USDT depegged due to mysterious selling activity, BUSD has been increasingly volatile since Paxos halted issuance, and USDC crashed during the March banking crisis.</li></ul>

Stablecoins are systemically important in cryptocurrency markets, so even the slightest depeg can cause mass market contagion.As such, it is concerning that stablecoins have been particularly volatile since the start of 2023TUSD wobbled amid Prime Trust's closure, USDT depegged due to mysterious selling activity, BUSD has been increasingly volatile since Paxos halted issuance, and USDC crashed during the March banking crisis.

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Tether (USDT CURNCY)

Crypto Moves #9 – Is It Too Obvious That 2024 is the Year of Crypto?

Welcome to 2024. Everyone is buzzing with anticipation, predicting a highly favorable year for crypto. The general sentiment in the market...

Steno Research

Top Trends of The Summer

While BTC 2% market depth has stabilized over the past few months at around 5k BTC, it remains more than 50% below its pre-FTX highs.

Kaiko

Curve 3pool Sees $175m Outflows

The Curve 3pool – long one of the most important sources of liquidity for DAI, USDC, and USDT – has continued to bleed this summer, shrinking by...

Kaiko

Tether Imbalance on Curve Raises Questions

Curve's 3pool and Uniswap V3’s main USDT-USDC pool both became imbalanced heading into the weekend as USDT selling escalated.

Kaiko

The State of Stablecoins

Stablecoins are systemically important in cryptocurrency markets, so even the slightest depeg can cause mass market contagion.

Kaiko

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