Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Texas Instruments (TI) reported its first-quarter 2025 results, showcasing a moderate revenue growth trajectory, yet in an environment fraught with external challenges.</li><li>Revenue for the quarter was $4.1 billion, marking a 2% sequential increase and an 11% increase year-over-year.</li><li>This growth was primarily driven by a 13% year-overyear increase in Analog revenue, while Embedded Processing remained relatively unchanged.</li></ul>

Texas Instruments (TI) reported its first-quarter 2025 results, showcasing a moderate revenue growth trajectory, yet in an environment fraught with external challenges.Revenue for the quarter was $4.1 billion, marking a 2% sequential increase and an 11% increase year-over-year.This growth was primarily driven by a 13% year-overyear increase in Analog revenue, while Embedded Processing remained relatively unchanged.

Texas Instruments: Expansion of Industrial And Automotive Markets & Key Forces Driving Growth!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Demand for Auto &amp; Industrial Semis was weak in 2024, Semi inventories remain high. But TXN beats 1Q guidance handsomely, 2Q is above expectations. TXN is back to YoY growth.</li>
<li>Critically, the Industrial market is recovering rapidly, Auto is back to modest growth. Management has some concerns that there could be re-stocking ahead of US import tariffs. </li>
<li>Consensus is too low but the stock is not cheap, has deflated from bubble levels but still not cheap.</li>
</ul>


Demand for Auto &amp; Industrial Semis was weak in 2024, Semi inventories remain high. But TXN beats 1Q guidance handsomely, 2Q is above expectations. TXN is back to YoY growth.
Critically, the Industrial market is recovering rapidly, Auto is back to modest growth. Management has some concerns that there could be re-stocking ahead of US import tariffs. 
Consensus is too low but the stock is not cheap, has deflated from bubble levels but still not cheap.


Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

<ul>
<li>TXN reported 3Q24 last night: EPS 7% above Consensus, small beat. However, 4Q guidance shows a delayed / tepid recovery: revenue to decline -6% YoY, EPS to decline -21% YoY.</li>
<li>Industrial demand is still declining steeply -23% YoY, “hovering at the bottom”. Auto revenue -2% YoY with growth in China but rest of world is declining. </li>
<li>The stock is trading at 31x 2025 and 25x 2026 Consensus EPS, way above its valuations range.</li>
</ul>


TXN reported 3Q24 last night: EPS 7% above Consensus, small beat. However, 4Q guidance shows a delayed / tepid recovery: revenue to decline -6% YoY, EPS to decline -21% YoY.
Industrial demand is still declining steeply -23% YoY, “hovering at the bottom”. Auto revenue -2% YoY with growth in China but rest of world is declining. 
The stock is trading at 31x 2025 and 25x 2026 Consensus EPS, way above its valuations range.


Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

<ul><li>Texas Instruments recently presented their fourth-quarter earnings, offering insights into the performance and outlook of the company.</li><li>The financial results indicate both challenges and opportunities for investors to consider.</li><li>In the fourth quarter of 2024, Texas Instruments reported revenue of $4 billion, which marks a 3% sequential decrease and a 2% decline from the previous year.</li></ul>

Texas Instruments recently presented their fourth-quarter earnings, offering insights into the performance and outlook of the company.The financial results indicate both challenges and opportunities for investors to consider.In the fourth quarter of 2024, Texas Instruments reported revenue of $4 billion, which marks a 3% sequential decrease and a 2% decline from the previous year.

Texas Instruments: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond! - Major Drivers

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Texas Instruments: Expansion of Industrial And Automotive Markets & Key Forces Driving Growth!

Texas Instruments (TI) reported its first-quarter 2025 results, showcasing a moderate revenue growth trajectory, yet in an environment fraught...

Baptista Research

Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.

After weak demand for Auto & Industrial Semis in 2024, TXN beats 1Q guidance and is back to YoY growth. However, concerns about re-stocking ahead...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

TXN reported 3Q24 earnings above Consensus but 4Q guidance shows a delayed recovery, with declining revenue and EPS. Industrial demand is still...

Nicolas Baratte

Texas Instruments: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond! - Major Drivers

Texas Instruments recently presented their fourth-quarter earnings, offering insights into the performance and outlook of the company. The...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Texas Instruments: Expansion of Industrial And Automotive Markets & Key Forces Driving Growth!

Texas Instruments (TI) reported its first-quarter 2025 results, showcasing a moderate revenue growth trajectory, yet in an environment fraught...

Baptista Research

Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.

​After weak demand for Auto & Industrial Semis in 2024, TXN beats 1Q guidance and is back to YoY growth. However, concerns about re-stocking ahead...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

​TXN reported 3Q24 earnings above Consensus but 4Q guidance shows a delayed recovery, with declining revenue and EPS. Industrial demand is still...

Nicolas Baratte

Texas Instruments: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond! - Major Drivers

Texas Instruments recently presented their fourth-quarter earnings, offering insights into the performance and outlook of the company. The...

Baptista Research

After weak demand for Auto & Industrial Semis in 2024, TXN beats 1Q guidance and is back to YoY growth. However, concerns about re-stocking ahead...

TXN reported 3Q24 earnings above Consensus but 4Q guidance shows a delayed recovery, with declining revenue and EPS. Industrial demand is still...