Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We've been pessimistic on prospects for ARM and recent news flow and share price performance hasn't helped but a decent report from TSMC eases some of our concerns</li>
<li>Softbank needs high teens royalty revenue growth for ARM and TSMC as a bellwether (+30% for Q3 and Q4 guidance) is better than AMD or Nvidia</li>
<li>We remain more conservative on valuation ($37bn) than Softbank assuming high single-digit growth and c. 43% EBITDA margins</li>
</ul>


We've been pessimistic on prospects for ARM and recent news flow and share price performance hasn't helped but a decent report from TSMC eases some of our concerns
Softbank needs high teens royalty revenue growth for ARM and TSMC as a bellwether (+30% for Q3 and Q4 guidance) is better than AMD or Nvidia
We remain more conservative on valuation ($37bn) than Softbank assuming high single-digit growth and c. 43% EBITDA margins


Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Biden makes the most definitive statement to date that the US will defend Taiwan.</li>
<li>Texas Instruments hikes dividend, annouces additional buyback. Will other cash rich semiconductor stocks follow suit?</li>
<li>Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.</li>
</ul>


Biden makes the most definitive statement to date that the US will defend Taiwan.
Texas Instruments hikes dividend, annouces additional buyback. Will other cash rich semiconductor stocks follow suit?
Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

<ul>
<li>WSTS June semiconductor revenues indicate the onset of a trend of flat-to-down sales</li>
<li>Recent chip company earnings calls largely project a down market in the current quarter</li>
<li>This is most likely the beginning of a 1½ -year downturn in semiconductors</li>
</ul>


WSTS June semiconductor revenues indicate the onset of a trend of flat-to-down sales
Recent chip company earnings calls largely project a down market in the current quarter
This is most likely the beginning of a 1½ -year downturn in semiconductors


Semiconductors Have Reached Turning Point

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Texas Instruments delivered its third consecutive all-around beat in the recent result with a reported revenue of $5.21 billion this quarter.</li><li>Among major developments, Texas Instruments has recently broken the ground on the new semiconductor plants of 300-mm for water fabrication in Sherman, Texas.</li><li>Texas Instruments has a strong balance sheet and the management continues investing in building capacity.</li></ul>

Texas Instruments delivered its third consecutive all-around beat in the recent result with a reported revenue of $5.21 billion this quarter.Among major developments, Texas Instruments has recently broken the ground on the new semiconductor plants of 300-mm for water fabrication in Sherman, Texas.Texas Instruments has a strong balance sheet and the management continues investing in building capacity.

Texas Instruments: New Semiconductor Plants & Other Developments

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

Recent semiconductor weakness is worrisome but results from TSMC are reassuring on the timing of an ARM IPO. We value ARM at $37bn v Softbank's $40bn.

Kirk Boodry

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope

Also: Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Semiconductors Have Reached Turning Point

The semiconductor market is starting to change from unusual growth and record revenues to a downturn that will return it to its long-term trend. ...

Jim Handy

Texas Instruments: New Semiconductor Plants & Other Developments

Texas Instruments delivered its third consecutive all-around beat in the recent result with a reported revenue of $5.21 billion this...

Baptista Research

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