Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TPL Summary Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reported third quarter results where a decline in daily production led to lower than expected oil and gas royalties.</li>
<li>The rate of production has always been the variable part of TPL’s results. In Q3 production levels were impacted by the summer heat in Texas causing abnormal electricity levels</li>
<li>TPL reported third quarter revenue of $158.0 million compared to our estimate of $178.7 million</li>
</ul>


TPL Summary Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reported third quarter results where a decline in daily production led to lower than expected oil and gas royalties.
The rate of production has always been the variable part of TPL’s results. In Q3 production levels were impacted by the summer heat in Texas causing abnormal electricity levels
TPL reported third quarter revenue of $158.0 million compared to our estimate of $178.7 million


<ul>
<li>TPL captured more water business in the second quarter than the Company had previously achieved leading to revenue and earnings exceeding our expectations</li>
<li>The water business has been a revenue source smoothing out the volatility associated with the movement in oil and gas prices and production levels</li>
<li>While TPL is not expecting to repeat second quarter levels in the third quarter, the water business should continue to perform better than previously expected</li>
</ul>


TPL captured more water business in the second quarter than the Company had previously achieved leading to revenue and earnings exceeding our expectations
The water business has been a revenue source smoothing out the volatility associated with the movement in oil and gas prices and production levels
While TPL is not expecting to repeat second quarter levels in the third quarter, the water business should continue to perform better than previously expected


<ul>
<li>TPL reported first quarter results that included a larger than normal legal expense crippling the Company’s net income in the period</li>
<li>TPL is disputing with its largest shareholder as to the voting agreement they have in place with them </li>
<li>Increase in non-oil and gas royalty revenue during a seasonally soft quarter leads us to expect outperformance over the next two quarters.</li>
</ul>


TPL reported first quarter results that included a larger than normal legal expense crippling the Company’s net income in the period
TPL is disputing with its largest shareholder as to the voting agreement they have in place with them 
Increase in non-oil and gas royalty revenue during a seasonally soft quarter leads us to expect outperformance over the next two quarters.


TPL: Free Cash Flow with Depressed Valuation

<ul>
<li>TPL reported fourth quarter revenue impacted by a trifecta of events. The decline in energy prices led to reduced production levels causing water sales to also decline in a period</li>
<li>TPL had been seeing production rebound in the summer of 2022. The volatility in energy prices in the Permian Basin pushed some producers to slow down their well development plans</li>
<li>The lower production was the biggest culprit to the decline in revenue as producers were not incentivized to produce oil and natural gas.</li>
</ul>


TPL reported fourth quarter revenue impacted by a trifecta of events. The decline in energy prices led to reduced production levels causing water sales to also decline in a period
TPL had been seeing production rebound in the summer of 2022. The volatility in energy prices in the Permian Basin pushed some producers to slow down their well development plans
The lower production was the biggest culprit to the decline in revenue as producers were not incentivized to produce oil and natural gas.


<ul>
<li>TPL reported better than expected third quarter results on the heels of production rebounding to a new high compared to the last four quarters</li>
<li>The availability of fracking sand has been the biggest impediment for energy producers in the Permian Basin. TPL contracting for two mobile sand miners should stabilize production over multiple quarters</li>
<li>We are raising our price target to $2,750 to better reflect the earnings power TPL’s business has looking ahead to 2023 and 2024 with higher production levels</li>
</ul>


TPL reported better than expected third quarter results on the heels of production rebounding to a new high compared to the last four quarters
The availability of fracking sand has been the biggest impediment for energy producers in the Permian Basin. TPL contracting for two mobile sand miners should stabilize production over multiple quarters
We are raising our price target to $2,750 to better reflect the earnings power TPL’s business has looking ahead to 2023 and 2024 with higher production levels


United States

Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns tracts of land in Texas, previously the property of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. The Trust issues transferable certificates of proprietary interest pro rata to the holders of certain debt securities of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. Texas's income is derived from land sales, oil and gas royalties, grazing leases, and interest.

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Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)

TPL: Collecting Cash Looking to 2024

Third quarter daily production was below our forecast due to electricity issues during the summer heat wave in Texas. Looking forward to 2024,...

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TPL: Not Just Oil and Gas Story Anymore

Non-oil and gas revenue is nearly 50 percent of total revenue creating a business model that has effectively hedged the volatility related to...

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TPL: Free Cash Flow with Depressed Valuation

TPL was able to offset the decline in oil and natural gas royalties with revenue growth in its other business segments. However, legal expenses...

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TPL: Cash Cushion

The trifecta of events in the fourth quarter led to TPL missing our expectations while adding to its cash balance. Production levels should...

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TPL: Rising Production, Raising PT

While energy prices did decline sequentially production rose more than expected. TPL's low-cost operating structure leads to greater amount of...

BWS Financial Inc

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