Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Thai Airways International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>THAI reported disappointing operating statistics for May 2026.</li><li>We expect THAI to report a core loss in 2Q26E.</li><li>We maintain our Buy rating and 12-month fair value of Bt6.80, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.4x.</li></ul>

THAI reported disappointing operating statistics for May 2026.We expect THAI to report a core loss in 2Q26E.We maintain our Buy rating and 12-month fair value of Bt6.80, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.4x.

THAI: May 2026 Operating Statistics Weakened Amid Higher Fuel Costs.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>(+) Brent crude fell for a fifth consecutive day, dropping below USD100/bbl as concerns over tight supply eased.</li><li>(+)The Ministry of Finance and the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) are advancing the "Reinvent Thailand" national strategy, targeting investment at 30% of GDP.</li><li>(+) The Cabinet approved the expected two-month extension of the "Thai Chuai Thai Plus" scheme and increased assistance for state welfare cardholders.</li></ul>

(+) Brent crude fell for a fifth consecutive day, dropping below USD100/bbl as concerns over tight supply eased.(+)The Ministry of Finance and the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) are advancing the "Reinvent Thailand" national strategy, targeting investment at 30% of GDP.(+) The Cabinet approved the expected two-month extension of the "Thai Chuai Thai Plus" scheme and increased assistance for state welfare cardholders.

<ul><li>(+) Global financial markets eased as Brent crude declined for a third consecutive day on hopes that China could help alleviate near-term oil supply disruptions.</li><li>(+) The National Energy Policy Council maintained the Ft rate for the final four months of 2026, raised the household solar target to 10GW and removed the MW cap on Direct PPAs.</li><li>Fitch Ratings upgraded Thailand's credit outlook to Stable from Negative, as the economy has weathered the global energy price crisis better than expected and Al-related investment is accelerating.</li></ul>

(+) Global financial markets eased as Brent crude declined for a third consecutive day on hopes that China could help alleviate near-term oil supply disruptions.(+) The National Energy Policy Council maintained the Ft rate for the final four months of 2026, raised the household solar target to 10GW and removed the MW cap on Direct PPAs.Fitch Ratings upgraded Thailand's credit outlook to Stable from Negative, as the economy has weathered the global energy price crisis better than expected and Al-related investment is accelerating.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 21, 2026

<ul><li>Although 1Q26 core profit beat our estimate due to lower-thanexpected staff expenses, we expect 2Q26E performance to remain fairly volatile following the increase in jet fuel prices during March–April, before starting to decline in May as the Middle East situation improved.</li><li>We maintain our “Buy” rating and 12M FV of Bt6.80, based on EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, supported by 14% upside and stronger long-term earnings growth than peers. Meanwhile, tactical upside risk remains limited.</li><li>In addition, investors should continue to monitor the remaining 75% of debt-to-equity conversion shares, which will become eligible for trading again in August 2026.</li></ul>

Although 1Q26 core profit beat our estimate due to lower-thanexpected staff expenses, we expect 2Q26E performance to remain fairly volatile following the increase in jet fuel prices during March–April, before starting to decline in May as the Middle East situation improved.We maintain our “Buy” rating and 12M FV of Bt6.80, based on EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, supported by 14% upside and stronger long-term earnings growth than peers. Meanwhile, tactical upside risk remains limited.In addition, investors should continue to monitor the remaining 75% of debt-to-equity conversion shares, which will become eligible for trading again in August 2026.

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26 Core Profit Declined YoY...

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), with upside increasing to 14% based on a 12M fair value of Bt6.80, implying EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.</li><li>While 2Q26E performance is likely to be pressured by higher jet fuel costs and a potential decline in ASK during June–July due to weaker forward bookings, we are starting to see improving signals.</li><li>Revenue is expected to increase 1% YoY and 6% QoQ, supported by higher passenger yield (+3% YoY, +5% QoQ) driven by stronger demand for direct flights in order to avoid transit through the Middle East, despite ASK and RPK declining 2% YoY.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), with upside increasing to 14% based on a 12M fair value of Bt6.80, implying EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.While 2Q26E performance is likely to be pressured by higher jet fuel costs and a potential decline in ASK during June–July due to weaker forward bookings, we are starting to see improving signals.Revenue is expected to increase 1% YoY and 6% QoQ, supported by higher passenger yield (+3% YoY, +5% QoQ) driven by stronger demand for direct flights in order to avoid transit through the Middle East, despite ASK and RPK declining 2% YoY.

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26E Core Profit Down YoY On Higher Staff Costs

Thailand

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is the flag carrier airline of Thailand, providing passenger, cargo, and mail transportation on scheduled and chartered flights to domestic and international destinations. The company also offers related services such as ground handling, catering, and aircraft maintenance. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1960.

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Thai Airways International (THAI TB)

THAI: May 2026 Operating Statistics Weakened Amid Higher Fuel Costs.

We expect THAI to report a core loss in 2Q26E.We maintain our Buy rating and 12-month fair value of Bt6.80, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.4x.

Krungthai XSpring

SET Index Outlook

(+) Brent crude fell for a fifth consecutive day, dropping below USD100/bbl as concerns over tight supply eased. (+)The Ministry of Finance and...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 21, 2026

(+) Global financial markets eased as Brent crude declined for a third consecutive day on hopes that China could help alleviate near-term oil...

Krungthai XSpring

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26 Core Profit Declined YoY...

We maintain our “Buy” rating and 12M FV of Bt6.80, based on EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, supported by 14% upside and stronger long-term earnings growth than...

Krungthai XSpring

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26E Core Profit Down YoY On Higher Staff Costs

We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), with upside increasing to 14% based on a 12M fair value of Bt6.80, implying EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.

Krungthai XSpring

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