Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Thai Airways International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 30 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a>'s stock price has doubled this year, and the stock will be capped back to 10% of the index weight in June. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.1-3.7% of float in the adds with the largest impacts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-diy-holding-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43926:1" rel="noopener">Mr. DIY Holding (Thailand)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-airways-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18317:1" rel="noopener">Thai Airways International (THAI TB)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)'s stock price has doubled this year, and the stock will be capped back to 10% of the index weight in June. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.1-3.7% of float in the adds with the largest impacts in Mr. DIY Holding (Thailand) and Thai Airways International (THAI TB). 


SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes in June; DELTA Capping Too

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data</li>
<li>Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)</li>
<li>As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture</li>
</ul>


Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data
Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)
As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture


August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>There have been some changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.</li>
<li>The reference period for the June 2026 index rebal event is about to end soon. The expected ADDs/DELs presented in this insight are our final expectations.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
There have been some changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.
The reference period for the June 2026 index rebal event is about to end soon. The expected ADDs/DELs presented in this insight are our final expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun26: Final Expectations; 3 ADDs/DELs and Delta Capping

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand.</li>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs and capping flows for SET 50 for the June 2026 index rebal event. </li>
<li>Roughly a month ago, we were expecting only two ADDs/DELs. Now we see four ADDs/DELs.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs and capping flows for SET 50 for the June 2026 index rebal event. 
Roughly a month ago, we were expecting only two ADDs/DELs. Now we see four ADDs/DELs.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun26: Four ADDs/DELs Likely; Many Potential DELs Close to the Border

Thailand

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is the flag carrier airline of Thailand, providing passenger, cargo, and mail transportation on scheduled and chartered flights to domestic and international destinations. The company also offers related services such as ground handling, catering, and aircraft maintenance. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1960.

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Thai Airways International (THAI TB)

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes in June; DELTA Capping Too

There are 4 changes for the SET50 in June. DELTA will be capped at 10% of the index. Passives need to buy between 1.1-3.7% of float in the adds...

Brian Freitas

August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

By almost every measure, August's US border crossing data look even weaker than the mediocre numbers from July. Clearly, US travel and leisure...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun26: Final Expectations; 3 ADDs/DELs and Delta Capping

Among the expected ADDs, Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited (TFG TB) continues to see strong share price momentum. It is now up more than 2x...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun26: Four ADDs/DELs Likely; Many Potential DELs Close to the Border

There are several potential deletions close to the border that could drop out of the top 50 if they underperform other names by small margins.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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