Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Thai Airways International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>There have been some changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.</li>
<li>The reference period for the June 2026 index rebal event is about to end soon. The expected ADDs/DELs presented in this insight are our final expectations.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
There have been some changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.
The reference period for the June 2026 index rebal event is about to end soon. The expected ADDs/DELs presented in this insight are our final expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun26: Final Expectations; 3 ADDs/DELs and Delta Capping

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Thai Airways International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Although 1Q26 core profit beat our estimate due to lower-thanexpected staff expenses, we expect 2Q26E performance to remain fairly volatile following the increase in jet fuel prices during March–April, before starting to decline in May as the Middle East situation improved.</li><li>We maintain our “Buy” rating and 12M FV of Bt6.80, based on EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, supported by 14% upside and stronger long-term earnings growth than peers. Meanwhile, tactical upside risk remains limited.</li><li>In addition, investors should continue to monitor the remaining 75% of debt-to-equity conversion shares, which will become eligible for trading again in August 2026.</li></ul>

Although 1Q26 core profit beat our estimate due to lower-thanexpected staff expenses, we expect 2Q26E performance to remain fairly volatile following the increase in jet fuel prices during March–April, before starting to decline in May as the Middle East situation improved.We maintain our “Buy” rating and 12M FV of Bt6.80, based on EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, supported by 14% upside and stronger long-term earnings growth than peers. Meanwhile, tactical upside risk remains limited.In addition, investors should continue to monitor the remaining 75% of debt-to-equity conversion shares, which will become eligible for trading again in August 2026.

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26 Core Profit Declined YoY...

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The US and Iran have reached a draft agreement to extend the ceasefire by another 60 days, while the Strait of Hormuz is set to fully reopen for commercial shipping.</li><li>US Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.3% YoY in April, in line with market expectations, following a 3.2% increase in March.</li><li>The MSCI Rebalance will take effect after today's market close. MRDIYT and TFG will be added to the MSCI Global Small Cap Index, while TOA will be removed.</li></ul>

The US and Iran have reached a draft agreement to extend the ceasefire by another 60 days, while the Strait of Hormuz is set to fully reopen for commercial shipping.US Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.3% YoY in April, in line with market expectations, following a 3.2% increase in March.The MSCI Rebalance will take effect after today's market close. MRDIYT and TFG will be added to the MSCI Global Small Cap Index, while TOA will be removed.

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), with upside increasing to 14% based on a 12M fair value of Bt6.80, implying EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.</li><li>While 2Q26E performance is likely to be pressured by higher jet fuel costs and a potential decline in ASK during June–July due to weaker forward bookings, we are starting to see improving signals.</li><li>Revenue is expected to increase 1% YoY and 6% QoQ, supported by higher passenger yield (+3% YoY, +5% QoQ) driven by stronger demand for direct flights in order to avoid transit through the Middle East, despite ASK and RPK declining 2% YoY.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), with upside increasing to 14% based on a 12M fair value of Bt6.80, implying EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.While 2Q26E performance is likely to be pressured by higher jet fuel costs and a potential decline in ASK during June–July due to weaker forward bookings, we are starting to see improving signals.Revenue is expected to increase 1% YoY and 6% QoQ, supported by higher passenger yield (+3% YoY, +5% QoQ) driven by stronger demand for direct flights in order to avoid transit through the Middle East, despite ASK and RPK declining 2% YoY.

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26E Core Profit Down YoY On Higher Staff Costs

<ul><li>Brent crude oil prices rebounded 3% after the US launched military strikes in southern Iran, undermining hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement to end the conflict.</li><li>Tourist arrivals during May 18–24 recovered, supported by holiday travel across several countries, with total arrivals reaching 520,536, up 10.95% WoW.</li><li>Foreign fund flows returned to Thailand’s financial markets, with most inflows directed toward short-term bonds (more than Bt8.6bn), implying that investors may be temporarily parking funds before rotating them into the equity market.</li></ul>

Brent crude oil prices rebounded 3% after the US launched military strikes in southern Iran, undermining hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement to end the conflict.Tourist arrivals during May 18–24 recovered, supported by holiday travel across several countries, with total arrivals reaching 520,536, up 10.95% WoW.Foreign fund flows returned to Thailand’s financial markets, with most inflows directed toward short-term bonds (more than Bt8.6bn), implying that investors may be temporarily parking funds before rotating them into the equity market.

Thailand

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is Thailand's national airline providing air transportation, freight and mail services on domestic and international routes including Asia, Europe, North America, Africa and South West Pacific.  The Company is a state enterprise which is controlled by the government and partly owned by the public.

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Thai Airways International (THAI TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun26: Final Expectations; 3 ADDs/DELs and Delta Capping

Among the expected ADDs, Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited (TFG TB) continues to see strong share price momentum. It is now up more than 2x...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26 Core Profit Declined YoY...

We maintain our “Buy” rating and 12M FV of Bt6.80, based on EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, supported by 14% upside and stronger long-term earnings growth than...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. May 29, 2026

The US and Iran have reached a draft agreement to extend the ceasefire by another 60 days, while the Strait of Hormuz is set to fully reopen for...

Krungthai XSpring

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26E Core Profit Down YoY On Higher Staff Costs

We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), with upside increasing to 14% based on a 12M fair value of Bt6.80, implying EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. May 27, 2026

Brent crude oil prices rebounded 3% after the US launched military strikes in southern Iran, undermining hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement to end...

Krungthai XSpring

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