Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>  reported marginal revenue growth and a slight decline in EBITDA for the December quarter (1QFY25), even as its spirits segment experienced a sharper drop in both.</li>
<li>With its primarily Thailand-based spirits segment seemingly in a structural decline, growth in other segments must offset the impact on overall sales.</li>
<li>With limited potential to unlock value from its beer division, particularly amid the sharp decline in BeerCo's valuations, Thai Bev seems increasingly off investors' radar.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)  reported marginal revenue growth and a slight decline in EBITDA for the December quarter (1QFY25), even as its spirits segment experienced a sharper drop in both.
With its primarily Thailand-based spirits segment seemingly in a structural decline, growth in other segments must offset the impact on overall sales.
With limited potential to unlock value from its beer division, particularly amid the sharp decline in BeerCo's valuations, Thai Bev seems increasingly off investors' radar.


Thai Beverage: In Low Spirits. Now a Low- Risk Dividend Play

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Five new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>'s scrip merger; and cash Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntec-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1" rel="noopener">Suntec (SUN SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latin-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8770:1" rel="noopener">Latin Resources (LRS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">Sg Fleet (SGF AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphb-capital-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8540:1" rel="noopener">MPHB (MPHB MK)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Five new deals this week: De Grey Mining (DEG AU)'s scrip merger; and cash Offers for ESR (1821 HK), HKBN (1310 HK), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), and Suntec (SUN SP).
Key updates/news took place on: Latin Resources (LRS AU), Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU), Sg Fleet (SGF AU), Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), and MPHB (MPHB MK).



(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: De Grey Mining, HPI, SG Fleet, Malaysia Airports, MPHB, Suntec REIT

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2024, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~44%. The average premium YTD is ~43%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2024, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~44%. The average premium YTD is ~43%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2024: Net One System, Amcor/Berry, I D & E Holdings, SG Fleet, Macromill

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Remain BULLISH <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) </a> with low conviction. This is buying on narrative rather than fundamentals but there is no need to not get involved.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitasoy-intl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2807:1" rel="noopener">Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)</a>'s share price run up is excessive as Philip Ng and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yeo-hiap-seng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9051:1" rel="noopener">Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP)</a> over-extend their hand.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks (1973 JP)</a> has yet to trade below terms. The premium is small, perhaps reflecting the risk NEC will lower the minimum threshold. But there is still a fight here.</li>
</ul>


Remain BULLISH Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)  with low conviction. This is buying on narrative rather than fundamentals but there is no need to not get involved.

Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)'s share price run up is excessive as Philip Ng andYeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP) over-extend their hand.

Nec Networks (1973 JP) has yet to trade below terms. The premium is small, perhaps reflecting the risk NEC will lower the minimum threshold. But there is still a fight here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric Railway, Vitasoy, NEC Network, ESR Group

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals this week: NBIOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">SG Fleet (SGF AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-new-energy-g" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6927:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy  (1250 HK)</a>'s MGO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> also suspended.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samty-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43711:1" rel="noopener">SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals this week: NBIOs for SG Fleet (SGF AU) and AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU); and Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy  (1250 HK)'s MGO. Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) also suspended.
Key updates/news took place on: Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU), Capitol Health (CAJ AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) and SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP).



Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SG Fleet, Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy, HPI, Capitol Health, Henlius, 7 & I

Thailand

Thai Beverage is a leading beverage company in Southeast Asia, manufacturing, marketing, and distributing alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as food products. Its diverse portfolio includes spirits, beer (such as Chang Beer), non-alcoholic beverages like Oishi green tea, and various food offerings. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on October 29, 2003.

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Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)

Thai Beverage: In Low Spirits. Now a Low- Risk Dividend Play

For income-focused investors seeking steady dividends with limited downside, Thai Beverage remains a proposition worth considering in the current...

Devi Subhakesan

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: De Grey Mining, HPI, SG Fleet, Malaysia Airports, MPHB, Suntec REIT

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2024: Net One System, Amcor/Berry, I D & E Holdings, SG Fleet, Macromill

For Nov 2024, 14 new transactions were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$15bn. The ave. premium for these new transactions...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric Railway, Vitasoy, NEC Network, ESR Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SG Fleet, Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy, HPI, Capitol Health, Henlius, 7 & I

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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