Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1Q25 profit skyrocketed 22-fold YoY and 72% QoQ, beating expectations on the back of a higher-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM).</li><li>The 2Q25E outlook remains favorable, supported by rising and sustained high swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam through the end of 2Q25. Our 2025E profit forecast of Bt5.6bn is tilting toward potential upside, given the better-than-expected 1Q25 margin.</li><li>An interim cash dividend of Bt0.075 per share was announced for 1Q25, with the XD date on May 27 and the payment date on June 11, 2025, implying an annualized dividend yield of 5.7%.</li></ul>

1Q25 profit skyrocketed 22-fold YoY and 72% QoQ, beating expectations on the back of a higher-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM).The 2Q25E outlook remains favorable, supported by rising and sustained high swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam through the end of 2Q25. Our 2025E profit forecast of Bt5.6bn is tilting toward potential upside, given the better-than-expected 1Q25 margin.An interim cash dividend of Bt0.075 per share was announced for 1Q25, with the XD date on May 27 and the payment date on June 11, 2025, implying an annualized dividend yield of 5.7%.

Thaifoods Group - 1Q25 Core Profit Grew Robustly YoY and QoQ, 17% Better than Expected

<ul><li>The information gained from the most recent analyst meeting continues to indicate a recovery in 1Q25-2025E, fueled by rising swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam, sales growth in terms of both volume and prices, improving margins, and retail store expansion.</li><li>For 2025, the company targets 10-15% sales growth (compared to 17% in 2024), primarily supported by the expansion of its retail business, which accounted for 37% of total sales in 2024.</li><li>Revenue from the retail business is expected to reach Bt30bn (+25% YoY), serving as a key driver to volume growth. Swine sales volume is projected to leap by 25-30%.</li></ul>

The information gained from the most recent analyst meeting continues to indicate a recovery in 1Q25-2025E, fueled by rising swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam, sales growth in terms of both volume and prices, improving margins, and retail store expansion.For 2025, the company targets 10-15% sales growth (compared to 17% in 2024), primarily supported by the expansion of its retail business, which accounted for 37% of total sales in 2024.Revenue from the retail business is expected to reach Bt30bn (+25% YoY), serving as a key driver to volume growth. Swine sales volume is projected to leap by 25-30%.

TFG TB - Slightly Positive to Neutral View on Information Obtained from Analyst Meeting

<ul><li>2024 core profit exceeded expectations due to a higher-than- expected GPM and lower-than-expected tax expenses.</li><li>In addition, with Thai and Vietnamese swine prices rising and expected to remain high over the next six months, we have revised up our 2025-26E earnings forecasts by an average of 35%.</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Outperform) as the valuation metrics now indicate very limited upside potential (previously limited downside risk). </li></ul>

2024 core profit exceeded expectations due to a higher-than- expected GPM and lower-than-expected tax expenses.In addition, with Thai and Vietnamese swine prices rising and expected to remain high over the next six months, we have revised up our 2025-26E earnings forecasts by an average of 35%.We downgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Outperform) as the valuation metrics now indicate very limited upside potential (previously limited downside risk). 

Thaifoods Group - Upbeat 2024 Earnings; 2025-26E Earnings Forecasts Revised Up

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>'s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden (4062 JP)</a>'s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It'll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.</li>
<li>Palliser has a point. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem (051910 KS)</a> should pare down its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?</li>
<li>The latest twist in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.</li>
</ul>



Nidec (6594 JP)'s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The Ibiden (4062 JP)'s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It'll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.
Palliser has a point. LG Chem (051910 KS) should pare down its LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?
The latest twist in the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden, LG Chem, Mayne Pharma, Jardine Matheson

<ul>
<li>As first discussed back in May (see <a href="https://skr.ma/LAfHm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xspring-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19807:1" rel="noopener">XSpring (XPG TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bec-world-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16881:1" rel="noopener">BEC (BEC TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-practical-solution-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45379:1" rel="noopener">The Practical Solution (TPS TB)</a> all went limit down. Twice.</li>
<li>As widely reported at the time, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana reportedly pledged his holdings in all four companies. Pledged shares in KTC ballooned in June versus May, but since fallen.</li>
<li>All four were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big moves were seen in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bcpg-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24051:1" rel="noopener">BCPG (BCPG TB)</a> (up), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-foods-group-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24053:1" rel="noopener">Thai Foods Group (TFG TB)</a> (down).</li>
</ul>


As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
As widely reported at the time, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana reportedly pledged his holdings in all four companies. Pledged shares in KTC ballooned in June versus May, but since fallen.
All four were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big moves were seen in BCPG (BCPG TB) (up), and Thai Foods Group (TFG TB) (down).


Thai Pledged Shares: The Prakitchaiwattana Complex Remains Static

Thailand

Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited is the manufacturer and processor of poultry and swine products. The Company's business involves hatcheries, contract farming, raw chicken meat processing for export, and domestic distribution. Thaifoods Group operates in Southeast Asia.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited (TFG TB)

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Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited (TFG TB)

Thaifoods Group - 1Q25 Core Profit Grew Robustly YoY and QoQ, 17% Better than Expected

1Q25 profit skyrocketed 22-fold YoY and 72% QoQ, beating expectations on the back of a higher-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM).

Krungthai XSpring

TFG TB - Slightly Positive to Neutral View on Information Obtained from Analyst Meeting

The information gained from the most recent analyst meeting continues to indicate a recovery in 1Q25-2025E, fueled by rising swine prices in...

Krungthai XSpring

Thaifoods Group - Upbeat 2024 Earnings; 2025-26E Earnings Forecasts Revised Up

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Outperform) as the valuation metrics now indicate very limited upside potential (previously limited...

Krungthai XSpring

Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden, LG Chem, Mayne Pharma, Jardine Matheson

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Thai Pledged Shares: The Prakitchaiwattana Complex Remains Static

Pledged shares in the four key Prakitchaiwattana-held stocks, including Krungthai Card, were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big...

David Blennerhassett

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