Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1Q26 net profit came in broadly in line with expectations, while core profit exceeded estimates, supported by other income and tax credits.</li><li>Valuation metrics: we maintain an Outperform rating, with 17% upside to our fair value of Bt13.60, based on a required return of 7.6%.</li><li>However, we are cautious on the outlook, given rising cost pressures and weakening sales momentum amid a softer global economy driven by higher energy costs.</li></ul>

1Q26 net profit came in broadly in line with expectations, while core profit exceeded estimates, supported by other income and tax credits.Valuation metrics: we maintain an Outperform rating, with 17% upside to our fair value of Bt13.60, based on a required return of 7.6%.However, we are cautious on the outlook, given rising cost pressures and weakening sales momentum amid a softer global economy driven by higher energy costs.

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 1Q26 Core Profit Above Expectations On Other Income And Tax

<ul><li>4Q25 and 2025 earnings declined YoY due to higher operating expenses.</li><li>Valuation metrics: We upgrade to Neutral (from Underperform) as the share price offers 2% upside to our new Bt12.60 fair value, based on an 8.3% required return (previously 10.3%/9.6%).</li><li>1Q26E is expected to be a low season, with added challenges in the US market from intensified competition following price hikes (reflecting US tariffs).</li></ul>

4Q25 and 2025 earnings declined YoY due to higher operating expenses.Valuation metrics: We upgrade to Neutral (from Underperform) as the share price offers 2% upside to our new Bt12.60 fair value, based on an 8.3% required return (previously 10.3%/9.6%).1Q26E is expected to be a low season, with added challenges in the US market from intensified competition following price hikes (reflecting US tariffs).

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 4Q25 & 2025 Earnings Down YoY; 2026E Growth Likely Up 5%

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Domestic swine and broiler prices are rising due to hot weather reducing animal weights (lower feed intake), while Vietnamese swine prices remain strong and Chinese swine prices have weakened below production costs.</li><li>Vietnamese swine prices fell 1% MoM in April, but rose 31% YoY and QoQ in 1Q26.</li><li>Chinese swine prices fell 11% MoM in April, with 1Q26 down 25% YoY… nearing a bottom?</li></ul>

Domestic swine and broiler prices are rising due to hot weather reducing animal weights (lower feed intake), while Vietnamese swine prices remain strong and Chinese swine prices have weakened below production costs.Vietnamese swine prices fell 1% MoM in April, but rose 31% YoY and QoQ in 1Q26.Chinese swine prices fell 11% MoM in April, with 1Q26 down 25% YoY… nearing a bottom?

Agribusiness And Food: Thai Swine And Broiler Prices Recovering...

<ul><li>4Q25E earnings are expected to fall YoY and QoQ, with 1Q26E entering a low season.</li><li>Valuation metrics suggest up to 18% downside to the 12M forward FV of Bt10.30, based on an earnings-yield approach with a 9.6% required return.</li><li>1Q26E would be a low season, with ongoing headwinds from weaker US demand amid intensified competition following price hikes (reflecting US tariffs) and tuna costs rising faster than selling prices.</li></ul>

4Q25E earnings are expected to fall YoY and QoQ, with 1Q26E entering a low season.Valuation metrics suggest up to 18% downside to the 12M forward FV of Bt10.30, based on an earnings-yield approach with a 9.6% required return.1Q26E would be a low season, with ongoing headwinds from weaker US demand amid intensified competition following price hikes (reflecting US tariffs) and tuna costs rising faster than selling prices.

Thai Union Group Plc. (TU): 4Q25E Profit Down; 1Q26E Challenging

<ul><li>3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.</li><li>NP was Bt1.30bn (–7% YoY, +3% QoQ), beating forecasts by 6% on a Bt107mn FX gain.</li><li>9M25 core profit was Bt3.0bn (–22% YoY), 76% of the full-year estimate. 4Q25E looks challenging with the full impact of the 19% US tariff and possible demand pressure from higher prices.</li></ul>

3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.NP was Bt1.30bn (–7% YoY, +3% QoQ), beating forecasts by 6% on a Bt107mn FX gain.9M25 core profit was Bt3.0bn (–22% YoY), 76% of the full-year estimate. 4Q25E looks challenging with the full impact of the 19% US tariff and possible demand pressure from higher prices.

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25 Core Profit Down YoY, Flat QoQ; 4Q25E Challenging

Thailand

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited produces and exports frozen and canned seafood products including frozen tuna loin, shrimp and cephalopod. The Company also produces canned pet foods from by products of its seafood process.  Additionally, the Company produces fish snack and canned tuna which are marketed locally.

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Thai Union Group (TU TB)

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 1Q26 Core Profit Above Expectations On Other Income And Tax

1Q26 net profit came in broadly in line with expectations, while core profit exceeded estimates, supported by other income and tax credits.

Krungthai XSpring

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 4Q25 & 2025 Earnings Down YoY; 2026E Growth Likely Up 5%

1Q26E is expected to be a low season, with added challenges in the US market from intensified competition following price hikes (reflecting US...

Krungthai XSpring

Agribusiness And Food: Thai Swine And Broiler Prices Recovering...

Domestic swine and broiler prices are rising due to hot weather reducing animal weights (lower feed intake), while Vietnamese swine prices remain...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Union Group Plc. (TU): 4Q25E Profit Down; 1Q26E Challenging

Valuation metrics suggest up to 18% downside to the 12M forward FV of Bt10.30, based on an earnings-yield approach with a 9.6% required return.

Krungthai XSpring

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25 Core Profit Down YoY, Flat QoQ; 4Q25E Challenging

3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and...

Krungthai XSpring

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