Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.</li><li>NP was Bt1.30bn (–7% YoY, +3% QoQ), beating forecasts by 6% on a Bt107mn FX gain.</li><li>9M25 core profit was Bt3.0bn (–22% YoY), 76% of the full-year estimate. 4Q25E looks challenging with the full impact of the 19% US tariff and possible demand pressure from higher prices.</li></ul>

3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and rising operating expenses.NP was Bt1.30bn (–7% YoY, +3% QoQ), beating forecasts by 6% on a Bt107mn FX gain.9M25 core profit was Bt3.0bn (–22% YoY), 76% of the full-year estimate. 4Q25E looks challenging with the full impact of the 19% US tariff and possible demand pressure from higher prices.

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25 Core Profit Down YoY, Flat QoQ; 4Q25E Challenging

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Domestic swine and broiler prices are rising due to hot weather reducing animal weights (lower feed intake), while Vietnamese swine prices remain strong and Chinese swine prices have weakened below production costs.</li><li>Vietnamese swine prices fell 1% MoM in April, but rose 31% YoY and QoQ in 1Q26.</li><li>Chinese swine prices fell 11% MoM in April, with 1Q26 down 25% YoY… nearing a bottom?</li></ul>

Domestic swine and broiler prices are rising due to hot weather reducing animal weights (lower feed intake), while Vietnamese swine prices remain strong and Chinese swine prices have weakened below production costs.Vietnamese swine prices fell 1% MoM in April, but rose 31% YoY and QoQ in 1Q26.Chinese swine prices fell 11% MoM in April, with 1Q26 down 25% YoY… nearing a bottom?

Agribusiness And Food: Thai Swine And Broiler Prices Recovering...

<ul>
<li>KBANK, KTB, THANI and TU have fallen below the ranking criteria, with holding-period returns of -1.4%, -2.4%, -3.8% and -4.7%, respectively. DOHOME has been added to the portfolio.</li>
<li>A strong rebound in electronics stocks lifted the portfolio's average return by 0.31%, outperforming the SET, which fell 0.20% amid selling pressure in banking, transportation and energy stocks.</li>
</ul>


KBANK, KTB, THANI and TU have fallen below the ranking criteria, with holding-period returns of -1.4%, -2.4%, -3.8% and -4.7%, respectively. DOHOME has been added to the portfolio.
A strong rebound in electronics stocks lifted the portfolio's average return by 0.31%, outperforming the SET, which fell 0.20% amid selling pressure in banking, transportation and energy stocks.


<ul><li>Exports in June grew by 15.5% YoY, supporting a 15.0% YoY expansion in 1H25.</li><li>We believe this momentum was not solely driven by pent-up demand, but also by trade diversion, which suggests the positive trend could continue into 2H25E.</li><li>We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER</li></ul>

Exports in June grew by 15.5% YoY, supporting a 15.0% YoY expansion in 1H25.We believe this momentum was not solely driven by pent-up demand, but also by trade diversion, which suggests the positive trend could continue into 2H25E.We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER

Economic Update – Exports & Imports -JULY 29, 2025

<ul><li>Based on our analysis, if trade negotiations with the US proceed as Thailand hopes — enabling the import of corn and soybean meal from the US at lower costs for use as animal feed — and if there are no GMO-related barriers to Thai chicken exports, it is expected to benefit Thai livestock producers through improved margins from lower feed input costs and enhanced long-term competitiveness.</li><li>Our study indicates that CPF would benefit the most in absolute value, while mid-sized players like BTG and TFG are likely to see the most positive impact on the 2026E profit estimates.</li><li>GFPT would experience the largest increase in its gross profit margin (GPM) relative to its base case. </li></ul>

Based on our analysis, if trade negotiations with the US proceed as Thailand hopes — enabling the import of corn and soybean meal from the US at lower costs for use as animal feed — and if there are no GMO-related barriers to Thai chicken exports, it is expected to benefit Thai livestock producers through improved margins from lower feed input costs and enhanced long-term competitiveness.Our study indicates that CPF would benefit the most in absolute value, while mid-sized players like BTG and TFG are likely to see the most positive impact on the 2026E profit estimates.GFPT would experience the largest increase in its gross profit margin (GPM) relative to its base case. 

Industry Update - Will the Meat Sector Benefit from US Tariffs?

Thailand

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited is a multinational seafood processing and exporting company, recognized as one of the world's largest producers of shelf-stable tuna products. The company offers a diverse portfolio of frozen, canned, and value-added seafood, including tuna, shrimp, sardines, mackerel, and salmon, along with pet food products, under various global brands such as Chicken of the Sea and John West. Thai Union Group is headquartered in Samut Sakhon, Thailand, and was founded in 1977.

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Thai Union Group (TU TB)

THAI UNION GROUP Plc. (TU): 3Q25 Core Profit Down YoY, Flat QoQ; 4Q25E Challenging

3Q25 core profit fell YoY and QoQ despite seasonal sales growth, as margins weakened from the US tariff, stronger baht, higher tuna costs, and...

Krungthai XSpring

Agribusiness And Food: Thai Swine And Broiler Prices Recovering...

Domestic swine and broiler prices are rising due to hot weather reducing animal weights (lower feed intake), while Vietnamese swine prices remain...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Tactical Picks

KBANK, KTB, THANI and TU have fallen below the ranking criteria, with holding-period returns of -1.4%, -2.4%, -3.8% and -4.7%, respectively....

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update – Exports & Imports -JULY 29, 2025

We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Will the Meat Sector Benefit from US Tariffs?

We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and highlight TFG as the most attractive pick based on the valuation metrics (Outperform; FV = Bt5.95).

Krungthai XSpring

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