Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Via an off-market offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>is aiming to purchase all shares of iron-ore play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-hawk-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15387:1" rel="noopener">Red Hawk Mining (RHK AU)</a> at A$1.05/share, a 28% premium to last close.</li>
<li>If Fortescue secures at least 75% of Red Hawk's shares within seven days, the Offer Price increases to A$1.20/share, a 46% premium to last close</li>
<li>Fortescue's focus is on Red Hawk's Blacksmith iron ore project, located ~30 kilometers west of Fortescue's own Solomon project.</li>
</ul>


Via an off-market offer, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)is aiming to purchase all shares of iron-ore play Red Hawk Mining (RHK AU) at A$1.05/share, a 28% premium to last close.
If Fortescue secures at least 75% of Red Hawk's shares within seven days, the Offer Price increases to A$1.20/share, a 46% premium to last close
Fortescue's focus is on Red Hawk's Blacksmith iron ore project, located ~30 kilometers west of Fortescue's own Solomon project.


Red Hawk (RHK AU): Fortescue's Off-Market Offer

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy G / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1227/2024122701100.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">completed</a> two SPAs, elevating its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-new-energy-g" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6927:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK)</a> to 56.97% from 43.45%, triggering an unconditional MGO. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0128/2025012800031.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Composite Doc</a> is now out, and the Offer is open for tendering. The close of the Offer is the 18th Feb, 21 days out. Don't expect an extension.</li>
<li>The IFA has declared the terms fair &amp; reasonable. Which is probably true.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 27 December, Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) completed two SPAs, elevating its stake in Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK) to 56.97% from 43.45%, triggering an unconditional MGO. 
The Composite Doc is now out, and the Offer is open for tendering. The close of the Offer is the 18th Feb, 21 days out. Don't expect an extension.
The IFA has declared the terms fair &amp; reasonable. Which is probably true.


Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK)'s Unconditional MGO Now Open

<ul>
<li>Singaporean property play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/slb-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26989:1" rel="noopener">SLB Development (SLB SP)</a> has <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Joint%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=831315" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an Offer, by way of  a Scheme, from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>'s Ong family, at S$0.23/share, a 36.1% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>Lian Beng, which was privatised by the Ong family in 2023 - see<a href="https://skr.ma/xUkjx" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lian Beng: Circ Out. IFA (Rightfully) Says Not Fair</a> -  holds 77.6% in SLB. </li>
<li>This is done. No competing offer will emerge. I don't think this needs a bump.</li>
</ul>


Singaporean property play SLB Development (SLB SP) has announced an Offer, by way of  a Scheme, from Lian Beng (LBG SP)'s Ong family, at S$0.23/share, a 36.1% premium to undisturbed.
Lian Beng, which was privatised by the Ong family in 2023 - see Lian Beng: Circ Out. IFA (Rightfully) Says Not Fair -  holds 77.6% in SLB. 
This is done. No competing offer will emerge. I don't think this needs a bump.


SLB Dev (SLB SP): Ong Family Offer By Way Of A Scheme.

<ul>
<li>On the 21st January 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>, the world's largest pork producer, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0121/2025012100994.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Smithfield had made a public filing of the "Preliminary Prospectus" with the SEC.</li>
<li>A US$23-US$27/share indicative price range backed out a possible market cap for Smithfield of US$9.0bn-US$10.6bn, at the high end of my estimate, and more than twice its 2013 privatisation value. </li>
<li>
Reportedly,  WHG are now guiding that Smithfield is likely to be priced at $20/share. Expect WHG to sell off here.</li>
</ul>


On the 21st January 2025, WH Group (288 HK), the world's largest pork producer, announced Smithfield had made a public filing of the "Preliminary Prospectus" with the SEC.
A US$23-US$27/share indicative price range backed out a possible market cap for Smithfield of US$9.0bn-US$10.6bn, at the high end of my estimate, and more than twice its 2013 privatisation value. 

Reportedly,  WHG are now guiding that Smithfield is likely to be priced at $20/share. Expect WHG to sell off here.


WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction

<ul>
<li>Back on the 5th December, Gordan Tang (&amp; his wife Celine) acquired a 2.14% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntec-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1" rel="noopener">Suntec REIT (SUN SP)</a>, lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.</li>
<li>This had all the hallmarks of a technical Offer. The Offer price was S$1.16/share compared to the S$1.17/share undisturbed price. The IFA opined the Offer was not fair nor reasonable. </li>
<li>The Tangs have now bumped to S$1.19/share. Terms are not final. The IFA viewpoint won't budge. This is an opportunistic move from the Tangs. But why not roll the dice?</li>
</ul>


Back on the 5th December, Gordan Tang (&amp; his wife Celine) acquired a 2.14% stake in Suntec REIT (SUN SP), lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.
This had all the hallmarks of a technical Offer. The Offer price was S$1.16/share compared to the S$1.17/share undisturbed price. The IFA opined the Offer was not fair nor reasonable. 
The Tangs have now bumped to S$1.19/share. Terms are not final. The IFA viewpoint won't budge. This is an opportunistic move from the Tangs. But why not roll the dice?


Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Curious Bump

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Red Hawk (RHK AU): Fortescue's Off-Market Offer

This is done. Trading tight at A$1.19/share. Payment under the Offer is 10 business days once unconditional. If in, stay in. If small, illiquid...

David Blennerhassett

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK)'s Unconditional MGO Now Open

Assuming around mid-Feb payment, I'd pay up to HK$1.76/share. Don't expect a bump in terms. SDHG has taken advantage of Citic exiting.

David Blennerhassett

SLB Dev (SLB SP): Ong Family Offer By Way Of A Scheme.

This is done. Trading tight at a 2.2%/7.2% gross/annualised spread, if payment late May. If small-cap illiquid arbs are your bent, get involved.

David Blennerhassett

WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction

A US$10bn market cap for Smithfield was punchy. Reportedly, the feedback from investors think likewise. Dumbing down the bottom end of the price...

David Blennerhassett

Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang's Curious Bump

After the Tangs bumped to S$1.19/share on the 8th January, the IFA, with a fair value range of S$2.07-S$2.26, concluded on the 17th January that...

David Blennerhassett

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