Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 20 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vcredit-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27143:1" rel="noopener">VCredit Holdings (2003 HK)</a>, a provider of consumer financial services in China, announced a unconditional MGO from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit's chairman. and concert parties.</li>
<li>The catch? The Offer Price of HK$1.80/share was a 9.09% discount to undisturbed. It will not be increased. </li>
<li>VCredit's Composite Doc is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0109/2025010900641.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with the Offer open for tendering, with a 3rd February first close. The IFA says "not fair and not reasonable". Trading 45% through terms.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 20 December, VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, announced a unconditional MGO from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit's chairman. and concert parties.
The catch? The Offer Price of HK$1.80/share was a 9.09% discount to undisturbed. It will not be increased. 
VCredit's Composite Doc is now out, with the Offer open for tendering, with a 3rd February first close. The IFA says "not fair and not reasonable". Trading 45% through terms.


VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>'s spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>'s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.</li>
<li>Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. </li>
<li>Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete "before mid-2025"; possibly this quarter.</li>
</ul>



Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)'s spread to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.
Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. 
Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete "before mid-2025"; possibly this quarter.


Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following on from the surprise development that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK)</a> had reduced its stake below 5%, I've had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.</li>
<li>IF Mengniu is a seller, can't Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?</li>
<li>Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.</li>
</ul>


Following on from the surprise development that China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) had reduced its stake below 5%, I've had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.
IF Mengniu is a seller, can't Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?
Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.


GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 14th November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.</li>
<li>A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0107/2025010701638.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH)</a>.</li>
<li>The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.


PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)'s Unconditional MGO

<ul>
<li>On 17 November 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1117/2024111700031.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an EGM to approve the spin-off and separately list subsidiary Smithfield Foods on the NYSE or NASDAQ. </li>
<li>WHG, the world's largest pork producer, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1206/2024120601148.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 6th December the spin-off overwhelmingly gained shareholder approval. </li>
<li>Yesterday, the Smithfield NASDAQ <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91388/000162828025000470/smithfieldfoods-sx1.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPO doc</a> was made public. As per the filing: "the number and dollar amount of Smithfield Shares to be offered and sold have not been determined".</li>
</ul>


On 17 November 2024, WH Group (288 HK)  announced an EGM to approve the spin-off and separately list subsidiary Smithfield Foods on the NYSE or NASDAQ. 
WHG, the world's largest pork producer, announced on the 6th December the spin-off overwhelmingly gained shareholder approval. 
Yesterday, the Smithfield NASDAQ IPO doc was made public. As per the filing: "the number and dollar amount of Smithfield Shares to be offered and sold have not been determined".


WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield's IPO Doc Now Out

Thailand

Thaicom PCL operates satellite communication business. The Company operates and provides satellite transponder services. Thaicom also provides Internet, satellite uplink/downlink, and telephone network services.

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Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)

VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close

Unless you have some strong opinion on the back-end - I don't - this is an avoid. No one will tender into this Offer. Nothng to see here.

David Blennerhassett

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

The key reg approvals have been satisfied. Any pullback on Trump blustering is a buy. Trading at a ~3.2% gross return for the Aussie line. That's...

David Blennerhassett

GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

China Mengniu can simply sell its entire stake to XJF; but not above the Offer Price. So what's stopping Mengniu if they appear to be selling down?

David Blennerhassett

PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)'s Unconditional MGO

If in for the arb and opting for scrip, I 'd have exited, or exiting my initial buy-in. If in for the arb and took cash, I'd also would have...

David Blennerhassett

WH Group (288 HK): Smithfield's IPO Doc Now Out

WHG could surprise the market with a higher than expected IPO price. I doubt it. Even applying a high-end value for Smithfield of ~US$10bn, a ~38%...

David Blennerhassett

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