Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q25 earnings missed estimate on higher operating expenses, but GPM stayed strong at 18.3% on retail sales.</li><li>Dividend of Bt0.3/share (5% yield) beat expectations.</li><li>We downgrade to Underperform (from Neutral) after 30% YTD rally, implying 18% downside to our Bt4.74 FV (earnings yield, 19% required return).</li></ul>

4Q25 earnings missed estimate on higher operating expenses, but GPM stayed strong at 18.3% on retail sales.Dividend of Bt0.3/share (5% yield) beat expectations.We downgrade to Underperform (from Neutral) after 30% YTD rally, implying 18% downside to our Bt4.74 FV (earnings yield, 19% required return).

THAIFOODS GROUP Plc. (TFG): Strong GPM On Retail Strength; DPS Beats Expectations

<ul><li>We take a neutral view on 4Q25E core profit at Bt1.49bn (+21% YoY, -14% QoQ), supported by stable-to-higher sales and GPM at 18% (up YoY, down QoQ; in line), the strongest in the sector, driven by retail channels. An expected Bt0.10 dividend for 4Q25E implies a 2% yield.</li><li>1Q26E GPM should recover QoQ on rebounding swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam, low raw material costs, and continued expansion of high-margin retail channels.</li><li>We downgrade to Neutral as the stock is fully valued vs our 12M FV of Bt4.68 (earnings yield method; required return 23.7%). Two-year earnings growth of 6.5% CAGR is in line with peers, with attractiveness ranking third after BTG and CPF due to a higher ERP.</li></ul>

We take a neutral view on 4Q25E core profit at Bt1.49bn (+21% YoY, -14% QoQ), supported by stable-to-higher sales and GPM at 18% (up YoY, down QoQ; in line), the strongest in the sector, driven by retail channels. An expected Bt0.10 dividend for 4Q25E implies a 2% yield.1Q26E GPM should recover QoQ on rebounding swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam, low raw material costs, and continued expansion of high-margin retail channels.We downgrade to Neutral as the stock is fully valued vs our 12M FV of Bt4.68 (earnings yield method; required return 23.7%). Two-year earnings growth of 6.5% CAGR is in line with peers, with attractiveness ranking third after BTG and CPF due to a higher ERP.

THAIFOODS GROUP Plc. (TFG): Strong 4Q25E GPM, Driven By Retail Channels

<ul><li>3Q25 profit beat forecast on an 18.8% GPM (80bps above forecast).</li><li>We maintain our 2025 forecast, with 4Q25 profit likely to soften QoQ as swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam decline.</li><li>Valuation metrics maintain Outperform on fundamentals, although LT growth is below average with 2Y core profit expected to decline 7% CAGR from a high 2025E base.</li></ul>

3Q25 profit beat forecast on an 18.8% GPM (80bps above forecast).We maintain our 2025 forecast, with 4Q25 profit likely to soften QoQ as swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam decline.Valuation metrics maintain Outperform on fundamentals, although LT growth is below average with 2Y core profit expected to decline 7% CAGR from a high 2025E base.

THAIFOODS GROUP Plc. (TFG): GPM at 18.8%, 80bps Above Forecast

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 301% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 301% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%


<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 317% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 317% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%


Thailand

Thaifoods Group is a vertically integrated food producer specializing in the production of chicken and swine, operating in Thailand and Vietnam. The company's core activities include chicken breeding, meat production, processed chicken products, pig breeding, and live pig sales. It also operates feed mills and a retail business. Thaifoods Group was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thaifoods Group (TFG TB)

THAIFOODS GROUP Plc. (TFG): Strong GPM On Retail Strength; DPS Beats Expectations

4Q25 earnings missed estimate on higher operating expenses, but GPM stayed strong at 18.3% on retail sales.Dividend of Bt0.3/share (5% yield) beat...

Krungthai XSpring

THAIFOODS GROUP Plc. (TFG): Strong 4Q25E GPM, Driven By Retail Channels

1Q26E GPM should recover QoQ on rebounding swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam, low raw material costs, and continued expansion of high-margin...

Krungthai XSpring

THAIFOODS GROUP Plc. (TFG): GPM at 18.8%, 80bps Above Forecast

We maintain our 2025 forecast, with 4Q25 profit likely to soften QoQ as swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam decline. Valuation metrics maintain...

Krungthai XSpring

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 55

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 54

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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