Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,177 points (10-day EMA) and 1,185 points, and the support at 1,160 and 1,155 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downward trend in a zig-zag pattern, aiming to find the bottom within the range of 1,100 to 1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, the trend is still downward, returning to a new low followed by a rebound pattern. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,177 points (10-day EMA) and 1,185 points, and the support at 1,160 and 1,155 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downward trend in a zig-zag pattern, aiming to find the bottom within the range of 1,100 to 1,506 points.In the short term, the trend is still downward, returning to a new low followed by a rebound pattern. 

KTX Zoom - US Reciprocal Tariffs: APRIL 2, 2025

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down trend, with the support levels at 1,150/1,140 points and the resistance are at 1,169/1,174 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend in a zig-zag down pattern, aiming to find a bottom within the 1,100-1,506-point range.</li><li>In the short term, the index has resumed its downtrend after forming a new low yesterday at 1,155.05 points, the lowest level since March 4, 2020 (five years and one month), compared to the previous low of 1,157.96 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down trend, with the support levels at 1,150/1,140 points and the resistance are at 1,169/1,174 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend in a zig-zag down pattern, aiming to find a bottom within the 1,100-1,506-point range.In the short term, the index has resumed its downtrend after forming a new low yesterday at 1,155.05 points, the lowest level since March 4, 2020 (five years and one month), compared to the previous low of 1,157.96 points.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,180/1,175 points and the resistance at 1,195/1,203 (25-day EMA) points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a zig-zag down pattern as it searches for the bottom, with the broader range seen between 1,100-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, it has been trading within a narrow range of 1,180-1,195 points over the past five trading days, awaiting a breakout to determine the next direction: i) a return to the downtrend to retest the previous low of 1,157.96 points, or ii) a sideways move followed by an upside breakout to test the 25-day EMA resistance at 1,203 points. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,180/1,175 points and the resistance at 1,195/1,203 (25-day EMA) points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a zig-zag down pattern as it searches for the bottom, with the broader range seen between 1,100-1,506 points.In the short term, it has been trading within a narrow range of 1,180-1,195 points over the past five trading days, awaiting a breakout to determine the next direction: i) a return to the downtrend to retest the previous low of 1,157.96 points, or ii) a sideways move followed by an upside breakout to test the 25-day EMA resistance at 1,203 points. 

KTX Zoom - Expiration of Derivatives Contracts & US PCE/Core PCE in February

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> later this month following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.</li>
</ul>



VGI PCL (VGI TB) could be added to the SET50 INDEX later this month following the Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) / Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) merger.
Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.
Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in VGI PCL (VGI TB) while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 in the run up to the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>The GULF-INTUCH M&amp;A event could trigger an intra-review change within the next few weeks. Then there could be more regular index changes in June 2025.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 in the run up to the index rebal event in June 2025.
The GULF-INTUCH M&amp;A event could trigger an intra-review change within the next few weeks. Then there could be more regular index changes in June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

Thailand

Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited provides financial services including consumer, corporate and mortgage financing.  Additionally the Company provides securities underwriting and investment advisory services.  Thanachart Capital also provides insurance services through its subsidiaries.

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Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB)

KTX Zoom - US Reciprocal Tariffs: APRIL 2, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,177 points (10-day EMA) and 1,185 points, and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - APRIL 1, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down trend, with the support levels at 1,150/1,140 points and the resistance are at...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - Expiration of Derivatives Contracts & US PCE/Core PCE in February

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,180/1,175 points and the resistance at 1,195/1,203 (25-day...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

VGI could be added to the index later this month following the GULF/INTUCH merger. Then there could be 3/4 more changes in June. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

VGI PCL (VGI TB) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB) are the two names leading the race to become the intra-review SET50 ADD for the GULF-INTUCH...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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