Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.</li>
<li>We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ</li>
<li>With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.
We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ
With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.


Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US Value funds rotate in to Health Care, pushing allocations to their highest levels on record.</li>
<li>The average Health Care allocation stands at 18.25%, with 71.4% of Value managers overweight at +3.11% above benchmark.  Health Care has become the conviction sector holding among US Value managers.</li>
<li>The most widely held stocks in the sector are Cigna Corp and Unitedhealth Group, owned by 55.7% and 52.9% of Value managers respectively.</li>
</ul>


US Value funds rotate in to Health Care, pushing allocations to their highest levels on record.
The average Health Care allocation stands at 18.25%, with 71.4% of Value managers overweight at +3.11% above benchmark.  Health Care has become the conviction sector holding among US Value managers.
The most widely held stocks in the sector are Cigna Corp and Unitedhealth Group, owned by 55.7% and 52.9% of Value managers respectively.


Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul><li>Healthcare stocks tend to do better than the broad S&amp;P 500 in risk-off environments and periods of slowing economic growth.</li><li>The purchasing managers’ index and various leading indicators continue to suggest economic deceleration is in store for 2022</li><li>Meanwhile, healthcare stocks generally have attractive valuations. They’ve not been piled into by hedge funds or meme traders</li></ul>

Healthcare stocks tend to do better than the broad S&amp;P 500 in risk-off environments and periods of slowing economic growth.The purchasing managers’ index and various leading indicators continue to suggest economic deceleration is in store for 2022Meanwhile, healthcare stocks generally have attractive valuations. They’ve not been piled into by hedge funds or meme traders

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oscar-health-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31499:1" rel="noopener">Oscar Health (OSCR US)</a>  stock continued to trade lower and plunged ~58% from its IPO price of $39 per share. Company will release its second quarter results after market on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Currently, Oscar Health shares trade on multiples lower than its peers, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clover-health-investments-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33060:1" rel="noopener">Clover Health Investments Corp (CLOV US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-health-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33507:1" rel="noopener">Bright Health Group (BHG US)</a> . Oscar Health completed IPO in March and lock-up agreements will expire on the second trading day immediately following the public release of earnings for the second quarter. Assuming stock price of $16.20 per share, Oscar Health has enterprise value (EV) of ~$1.06 billion and ~$2.3 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. Keeping this in mind, company has raised a total of ~$1.6 billion from American leading investment and venture capital firms. We believe that Oscar Health is M&amp;A target and may be acquired by large managed healthcare and insurance corporation.

Oscar Health (OSCR US)  stock continued to trade lower and plunged ~58% from its IPO price of $39 per share. Company will release its second quarter results after market on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Currently, Oscar Health shares trade on multiples lower than its peers, such as Clover Health Investments Corp (CLOV US) and Bright Health Group (BHG US) . Oscar Health completed IPO in March and lock-up agreements will expire on the second trading day immediately following the public release of earnings for the second quarter. Assuming stock price of $16.20 per share, Oscar Health has enterprise value (EV) of ~$1.06 billion and ~$2.3 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. Keeping this in mind, company has raised a total of ~$1.6 billion from American leading investment and venture capital firms. We believe that Oscar Health is M&amp;A target and may be acquired by large managed healthcare and insurance corporation.

Is Oscar Health M&A Target After The Shares Plunged More Than 50% Below IPO Price?

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oscar-health-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31499:1" rel="noopener">Oscar Health (OSCR US)</a>  completed its IPO in March and sold to investors ~36.4 million shares of Class A common stock at IPO price of $39.00 per share. Therefore, insurtech unicorn raised net proceeds of $1.3 billion and used a portion of funds to repay ~$153 million of borrowings under the Term Loan Facility. However, Oscar Health shares fell ~43% since IPO and could find the bottom near $22.00 per share. We believe that upcoming IPO of insurtech competitor Bright Health and strong financial results for 1Q CY21 may drive valuation of Oscar Health higher. Company plans to deliver revenue growth and expects direct and assumed policy premiums will be ~$3.1 billion at midpoint for CY21.

Oscar Health (OSCR US)  completed its IPO in March and sold to investors ~36.4 million shares of Class A common stock at IPO price of $39.00 per share. Therefore, insurtech unicorn raised net proceeds of $1.3 billion and used a portion of funds to repay ~$153 million of borrowings under the Term Loan Facility. However, Oscar Health shares fell ~43% since IPO and could find the bottom near $22.00 per share. We believe that upcoming IPO of insurtech competitor Bright Health and strong financial results for 1Q CY21 may drive valuation of Oscar Health higher. Company plans to deliver revenue growth and expects direct and assumed policy premiums will be ~$3.1 billion at midpoint for CY21.

Will Bright Health Upcoming IPO Drive Valuation of Oscar Health Higher?

United States

The Cigna Group operates as an insurance company. The Company offers life, accident, disability, supplemental, medicare, and dental insurance products and services. The Cigna Group serves individuals, families, and businesses worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Cigna Group (CI US)

Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP violating 2.5-yr uptrend; a break below $32.50 would send commodity prices much lower, & would be deflationary. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

US Value Funds Rotate in to Health Care

US Value managers have made an active rotation in to the Health Care sector, pushing allocations to their highest levels on record.

Steven Holden

A Healthy Long for Your Portfolio

Healthcare stocks tend to do better than the broad S&P 500 in risk-off environments and periods of slowing economic growth. The purchasing...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Is Oscar Health M&A Target After The Shares Plunged More Than 50% Below IPO Price?

We believe that investors underestimate technology component in Oscar Health’s valuation and insurtech may be M&A target for large insurance...

Andrei Zakharov

Will Bright Health Upcoming IPO Drive Valuation of Oscar Health Higher?

Oscar Health reduced quota share in 1Q CY21 and we expect GAAP revenue may grow 100%+ y/o/y this year with growing business segments MA, Small...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)