Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Realtek Semi, Faraday Tech, Auo, Asustek Computer, Mediatek, Lite-On Tech, Elite Material.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Realtek Semi, Faraday Tech, Auo, Asustek Computer, Mediatek, Lite-On Tech, Elite Material.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): Realtek Semi, Faraday Tech, Auo, Asustek Computer, Mediatek

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 19 July, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and 2 deletions for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF.</li>
<li>Stocks that are expected to benefit from the AI revolution could gain ETF inclusion while shipping stocks are the ones expected to be deleted from the ETF.</li>
<li>There has been a huge increase in shorts on some of the potential inclusions and on most of the potential deletions. That will affect how stocks trade near term.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 19 July, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and 2 deletions for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF.
Stocks that are expected to benefit from the AI revolution could gain ETF inclusion while shipping stocks are the ones expected to be deleted from the ETF.
There has been a huge increase in shorts on some of the potential inclusions and on most of the potential deletions. That will affect how stocks trade near term.


Yuanta ETFs Rebalance Preview: Soaring Stocks, Rising Shorts; AI Beats Shipping

<ul>
<li>JFSL spun off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> last week and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ventia-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34917:1" rel="noopener">Ventia (VNT AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>The IDX should announce the changes to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices early in the coming week.</li>
<li>There were inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a> while Taiwan focused ETFs had outflows.</li>
</ul>


JFSL spun off from Reliance Industries (RIL IN) last week and Ventia (VNT AU) replaced Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
The IDX should announce the changes to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices early in the coming week.
There were inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) while Taiwan focused ETFs had outflows.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, SK Telecom, Yuanta ETFs

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Exposure to the Taiwanese Banks sector has been in near constant decline for the best part of the last decade.</li>
<li>Just 4.5% of Asia Ex-Japan funds hold a position, with active managers running near record underweights of -1.06%, on average.</li>
<li>Investors should consider potential catalysts that could improve the investment outlook for banks in Taiwan, given the broad consensus on positioning.</li>
</ul>


Exposure to the Taiwanese Banks sector has been in near constant decline for the best part of the last decade.
Just 4.5% of Asia Ex-Japan funds hold a position, with active managers running near record underweights of -1.06%, on average.
Investors should consider potential catalysts that could improve the investment outlook for banks in Taiwan, given the broad consensus on positioning.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Many stocks in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index are largely avoided by active investors.  To screen for unloved stocks, we filter our aggregated stock holdings data as follows:</li></ul><ol>
<li>Average Active Fund Weight &lt; I-Shares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Weight (i.e net underweight)</li>
<li>Percentage of Funds Held &lt; 3% (i.e less than 3% of funds hold each stock).</li>
</ol><ul>
<li>The list is headed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, a stock owned by just 2.71% of active GEM funds at a net underweight of -0.25%.</li>
<li>In total, 458 out of the 1215 stocks in the index meet this criteria and 225 of those are China A-Shares. The combined underweight for the unloved stocks comes to -8.89%.</li>
<li>Does it pay to avoid unloved stocks?  We have backtested a portfolio of EM Unloved stocks based on the screening criteria above, rebalanced monthly going back to 2008 and capped at 50 stocks. The performance suggests that Unloved stocks are best avoided, with consistent underperformance vs the I-Shares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF since 2008. </li>
</ul>

Many stocks in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index are largely avoided by active investors.  To screen for unloved stocks, we filter our aggregated stock holdings data as follows:
Average Active Fund Weight &lt; I-Shares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Weight (i.e net underweight)
Percentage of Funds Held &lt; 3% (i.e less than 3% of funds hold each stock).

The list is headed by Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), a stock owned by just 2.71% of active GEM funds at a net underweight of -0.25%.
In total, 458 out of the 1215 stocks in the index meet this criteria and 225 of those are China A-Shares. The combined underweight for the unloved stocks comes to -8.89%.
Does it pay to avoid unloved stocks?  We have backtested a portfolio of EM Unloved stocks based on the screening criteria above, rebalanced monthly going back to 2008 and capped at 50 stocks. The performance suggests that Unloved stocks are best avoided, with consistent underperformance vs the I-Shares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF since 2008. 


Global Emerging Markets:  Unloved Stocks

Taiwan

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Ltd. provides commercial banking services with a global presence. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of loans. SCSB supports businesses by providing trade financing and foreign exchange services.

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The Shanghai Commerical & Sa (5876 TT)

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): Realtek Semi, Faraday Tech, Auo, Asustek Computer, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Realtek Semi, Faraday Tech, Auo, Asustek Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yuanta ETFs Rebalance Preview: Soaring Stocks, Rising Shorts; AI Beats Shipping

After a huge rally over the last couple of months, a lot of the potential inclusions are trading lower (or limit down) today. Shorts have continued...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, SK Telecom, Yuanta ETFs

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Banks: Uninvestible?

Exposure to the Taiwanese Banking sector has been in near constant decline for the last decade. Just 4.5% of Asia Ex-Japan investors have...

Steven Holden

Global Emerging Markets: Unloved Stocks

Many stocks in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index are largely avoided by active investors. To screen for unloved stocks, we filter our...

Steven Holden

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