TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Some updated thinking on our shorts: We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be <em>safe</em> to short. Well, safe as it ever gets. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while Disney we flip from long biased to short biased as Disney+ subscriber numbers have decelerated massively. </p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div>

Some updated thinking on our shorts: We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Well, safe as it ever gets. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while Disney we flip from long biased to short biased as Disney+ subscriber numbers have decelerated massively. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kayou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40875:1" rel="noopener">Kayou</a> is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Kayou Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Unexplained 9M23 Slump

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kayou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40875:1" rel="noopener">Kayou</a> is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Kayou Pre-IPO - The Positives - Strong FY22 Growth

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dream-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15783:1" rel="noopener">Dream International (1126 HK)</a>, the plush toy maker listed in HK for its long-term association with Disney and revenue growth profile (12% CAGR over 15 years).</li>
<li>The 15-year ROE has averaged 18%, and the company currently has 40% of the market capitalization (1.3 bn HKD) in net cash on the balance sheet. </li>
<li>Trading at 3.7x FY23 PE, with a 12% dividend yield (and the company's high likelihood of maintaining a payout ratio), this is an idea worth exploring.</li>
</ul>


We like Dream International (1126 HK), the plush toy maker listed in HK for its long-term association with Disney and revenue growth profile (12% CAGR over 15 years).
The 15-year ROE has averaged 18%, and the company currently has 40% of the market capitalization (1.3 bn HKD) in net cash on the balance sheet. 
Trading at 3.7x FY23 PE, with a 12% dividend yield (and the company's high likelihood of maintaining a payout ratio), this is an idea worth exploring.


Dream International (1126 HK): Dream Valuation of 3.7x PE and 12% Div Yield, >40% of Mkt Cap In Cash

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is looking to raise up to US$553m from selling a 1% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital, has been pushing Keisei Electric Railway to reduce its stake in OLC to unlock shareholder value owing to the wide discrepancy between carrying/market value of the former’s investment.</li>
<li>Selling just 1% of shares outstanding, the deal wouldn’t be a very large one to digest, representing 4.7 days of OLC’s three month ADV. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is looking to raise up to US$553m from selling a 1% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Palliser Capital, has been pushing Keisei Electric Railway to reduce its stake in OLC to unlock shareholder value owing to the wide discrepancy between carrying/market value of the former’s investment.
Selling just 1% of shares outstanding, the deal wouldn’t be a very large one to digest, representing 4.7 days of OLC’s three month ADV. 


Oriental Land Co Placement - Relatively Small One to Digest, Overhang Might Not Be as Large

United States

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

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The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)

2H21 Obex Research Short Portfolio

We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while...

Aaron Gabin

Kayou Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Unexplained 9M23 Slump

Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Kayou Pre-IPO - The Positives - Strong FY22 Growth

Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Dream International (1126 HK): Dream Valuation of 3.7x PE and 12% Div Yield, >40% of Mkt Cap In Cash

We like Dream International 1126 HK, the plush toy maker trading at 3.7x FY23 PE and a 12% dividend yield with 43% of the market cap in cash and...

Sameer Taneja

Oriental Land Co Placement - Relatively Small One to Digest, Overhang Might Not Be as Large

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is looking to raise up to US$553m from selling a 1% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).

Clarence Chu

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