IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 29 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> reported its FY25 results with underlying EBITDA of A$47 million, which is at the lower end of its guidance range. </li>
<li>At first glance, FY25 results are positive for Mayne as they suggest that the weak 3Q was an aberration and its performance is on an upward trajectory. </li>
<li>However, my analysis suggests that the results provide Cosette with several angles to pursue to bolster its case of a MAC breach. This remains a high-risk/high-reward set-up. </li>
</ul>


On 29 August, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) reported its FY25 results with underlying EBITDA of A$47 million, which is at the lower end of its guidance range. 
At first glance, FY25 results are positive for Mayne as they suggest that the weak 3Q was an aberration and its performance is on an upward trajectory. 
However, my analysis suggests that the results provide Cosette with several angles to pursue to bolster its case of a MAC breach. This remains a high-risk/high-reward set-up. 


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides

<ul>
<li>On 17 May, Cosette asserted that a material adverse change had occurred. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> disputes the claim with court proceedings set to start on 22 September. </li>
<li>Mayne’s FY25 results on 29 August should provide incremental clarity, but not a definite answer, on the MAC breach relating to maintainable EBITDA (decline by at least A$10.76 million).</li>
<li>The outcome of the trial remains uncertain as both Mayne and Cosette have valid arguments. Risk/reward is attractive - upside (43.1% to offer) vs the downside (22.3% to deal-break price).  </li>
</ul>


On 17 May, Cosette asserted that a material adverse change had occurred. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disputes the claim with court proceedings set to start on 22 September. 
Mayne’s FY25 results on 29 August should provide incremental clarity, but not a definite answer, on the MAC breach relating to maintainable EBITDA (decline by at least A$10.76 million).
The outcome of the trial remains uncertain as both Mayne and Cosette have valid arguments. Risk/reward is attractive - upside (43.1% to offer) vs the downside (22.3% to deal-break price).  


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hansoh Pharmaceutical stuck outlicense agreement with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals for GLP-1 drug candidate for an upfront payment of $80M. Daiichi Sankyo unveiled positive phase 3 trial result in first-line breast cancer.</li>
<li>Takeda received European approval for Adcetris as a chemotherapy regimen in Hodgkin lymphoma. Zydus Lifesciences is acquiring 5.9% stake in Agenus and commercial right for its lead candidate for India.</li>
<li>Mayne Pharma has filed a complaint in the U.S. Court against TherapeuticsMD. Cosette Pharmaceuticals indicated an intention to terminate the acquisition over “material adverse clause claims.”</li>
</ul>


Hansoh Pharmaceutical stuck outlicense agreement with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals for GLP-1 drug candidate for an upfront payment of $80M. Daiichi Sankyo unveiled positive phase 3 trial result in first-line breast cancer.
Takeda received European approval for Adcetris as a chemotherapy regimen in Hodgkin lymphoma. Zydus Lifesciences is acquiring 5.9% stake in Agenus and commercial right for its lead candidate for India.
Mayne Pharma has filed a complaint in the U.S. Court against TherapeuticsMD. Cosette Pharmaceuticals indicated an intention to terminate the acquisition over “material adverse clause claims.”


APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 8)- Hansoh Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Takeda, Mayne Pharma, Zydus Life

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> disclosed that Cosette served a scheme termination notice. Mayne maintains that a material adverse clause was not breached and considers the termination notice invalid.</li>
<li>The Cosette MAC breach claims likely hinge on establishing that forecasts provided during due diligence are materially lower than the unaudited management accounts. Precedents do not favour Mayne. </li>
<li>While the last close price (A$4.48) is below the undisturbed price (HK$5.41), there remains downside. My estimated deal break valuation range is A$3.26-A$4.00.</li>
</ul>



Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette served a scheme termination notice. Mayne maintains that a material adverse clause was not breached and considers the termination notice invalid.
The Cosette MAC breach claims likely hinge on establishing that forecasts provided during due diligence are materially lower than the unaudited management accounts. Precedents do not favour Mayne. 
While the last close price (A$4.48) is below the undisturbed price (HK$5.41), there remains downside. My estimated deal break valuation range is A$3.26-A$4.00.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Twists and Turns as Cosette Chases a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li><strong>For May 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$27bn. </strong></li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in May was ~28%, with a year-to-date average of 49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For May 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$27bn. 
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in May was ~28%, with a year-to-date average of 49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2025 Wrap: NTT Data, ZEEKR, MAC Copper, Torii, Mitsu. Shokuhin, SBI Sumishin

United States

TherapeuticsMD, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on creating safe and effective branded and generic prescription, and over-the-counter products targeted exclusively for women. The Company develops three advanced hormone replacement products designed to alleviate the symptoms of and reduce the health risks resulting from menopause-related hormone deficiencies.

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TherapeuticsMD (TXMD US)

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides

At first glance, the results support Mayne's stance. However, the results provide Cosette with several angles to pursue to bolster its case of a...

Arun George

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em

The near-term focus is on FY25 results on 29 August, which should provide incremental clarity, but not a definite answer, on the MAC breach. Risk...

Arun George

APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 8)- Hansoh Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Takeda, Mayne Pharma, Zydus Life

Hansoh stuck deal with Regeneron for obesity drug candidate. Daiichi Sankyo unveiled positive phase 3 trial result in first-line breast cancer....

Tina Banerjee

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Twists and Turns as Cosette Chases a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card

The Cosette MAC breach claims likely hinge on establishing that forecasts provided during due diligence are materially lower than the unaudited...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2025 Wrap: NTT Data, ZEEKR, MAC Copper, Torii, Mitsu. Shokuhin, SBI Sumishin

For the month of May, 13 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$27bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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