Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Delta Electronics (Thailand) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-plaza-hotel-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18213:1" rel="noopener">Central Plaza Hotel</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/com7-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27411:1" rel="noopener">Com7 PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.</li>
</ul>



Central Plaza Hotel, Com7 PCL, Delta Electronics Thai and Ratch Group will replace Bangkok Life Assurance, IRPC PCL, KCE Electronics PCL and Srisawad Power in the SET 50 Index. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.
The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.


SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> is seeing continued business recovery. Robust inflows of international business and solid Thai and expat revenue lifted hospital revenue 20% higher than pre-COVID level.</li>
<li>Sustained high volumes of inquiries and appointment requests remain a strong forward indicator. Bed availability is expected to increase in 4Q after the completion of latest phase of renovations.</li>
<li>Net profit margin reached to a record high of 26.2% in 3Q. Favorable payor mix, cost management, continued discount reduction, and economies of scale should further drive margin gains.    </li>
</ul>



Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) is seeing continued business recovery. Robust inflows of international business and solid Thai and expat revenue lifted hospital revenue 20% higher than pre-COVID level.
Sustained high volumes of inquiries and appointment requests remain a strong forward indicator. Bed availability is expected to increase in 4Q after the completion of latest phase of renovations.
Net profit margin reached to a record high of 26.2% in 3Q. Favorable payor mix, cost management, continued discount reduction, and economies of scale should further drive margin gains.    


Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB): Robust International Business Push Revenue Above Pre-COVID Level

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> reported strong Q2 2022 results, with revenue growth of 64% y/y, mainy driven by a 121% y/y increase in revenue from non-Thai patients.</li>
<li>Despite international patient volume is recovering, it is still lower than pre-COVID levels. Non-Thai patients contributed 66.2% of total revenue in Q2 2019, higher than 62.3% reported for Q2 2022.</li>
<li>Thailand targets 10 million foreign tourist arrivals this year, which should augur well for Bumrungrad.</li>
</ul>



Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported strong Q2 2022 results, with revenue growth of 64% y/y, mainy driven by a 121% y/y increase in revenue from non-Thai patients.
Despite international patient volume is recovering, it is still lower than pre-COVID levels. Non-Thai patients contributed 66.2% of total revenue in Q2 2019, higher than 62.3% reported for Q2 2022.
Thailand targets 10 million foreign tourist arrivals this year, which should augur well for Bumrungrad.


Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB): Flying High on Return of Medical Tourism

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rajthanee-hospital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23729:1" rel="noopener">Rajthanee Hospital (RJH TB)</a> reported triple-digit revenue and net profit growth in Q3, with gross margin reaching all-time high to 57.4%, due to Covid-19-related tailwind.</li>
<li>With the steadily declining new Covid-19 cases in Thailand, Rajthanee’s Q4 revenue is expected to decline sequentially. However, non-Covid business should continue to recover with the resumption of elective procedures.</li>
<li>Despite the shares trading at a reasonable P/E of 17x, I see limited upside due to its small and geographically concentrated operations, with substantial revenue exposure to social security schemes.</li>
</ul>



Rajthanee Hospital (RJH TB) reported triple-digit revenue and net profit growth in Q3, with gross margin reaching all-time high to 57.4%, due to Covid-19-related tailwind.
With the steadily declining new Covid-19 cases in Thailand, Rajthanee’s Q4 revenue is expected to decline sequentially. However, non-Covid business should continue to recover with the resumption of elective procedures.
Despite the shares trading at a reasonable P/E of 17x, I see limited upside due to its small and geographically concentrated operations, with substantial revenue exposure to social security schemes.


Rajthanee Hospital (RJH TB): Q4 Revenue Growth to Decelerate Sequentially as Covid Tailwind Fades

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-med-service" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:875:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Med Service (BDMS TB)</a> has <a href="https://www.set.or.th/dat/mds_news/news/0264NWS270220200759150484E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">made</a> a Conditional Voluntary Tender Offer (CVTO) for 24.99% held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> at THB125/share, an 11.6% premium to last close.
That Offer Price may increase by up to 20% - or up to THB150/share - depending on the "appropriateness of the market directions of the market of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the trading price of BH at the time."
In addition to requiring approval from BDMS' shareholders, the key condition to the Offer will be the approval from the Trade Competition Commission (TCC). That is unlikely to be a defeating condition.
The initial headline price, and even the high end of this indicative range, appears highly opportunistic.
More below the fold.

Bangkok Dusit Med Service (BDMS TB) has made a Conditional Voluntary Tender Offer (CVTO) for 24.99% held Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) at THB125/share, an 11.6% premium to last close.
That Offer Price may increase by up to 20% - or up to THB150/share - depending on the "appropriateness of the market directions of the market of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the trading price of BH at the time."
In addition to requiring approval from BDMS' shareholders, the key condition to the Offer will be the approval from the Trade Competition Commission (TCC). That is unlikely to be a defeating condition.
The initial headline price, and even the high end of this indicative range, appears highly opportunistic.
More below the fold.

Bumrungrad: Bangkok Dusit's Poor Diagnosis

Thailand

Thonburi Healthcare Group Public Company Limited is a leading healthcare provider in Thailand, operating private hospitals in Bangkok and other provinces, as well as internationally. The company offers comprehensive medical services, hospital management, healthcare solutions, and develops integrated residential projects with medical services for the elderly. Thonburi Healthcare Group was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

There are 4 changes for the SET50 Index in Dec, all in line with forecasts. Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days ADV on the adds...

Brian Freitas

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB): Robust International Business Push Revenue Above Pre-COVID Level

Increasing footfall of non-Thai patients lifted hospital revenue 15% and 20% above the pre-COVID levels in 2Q22 and 3Q22 respectively. The company...

Tina Banerjee

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB): Flying High on Return of Medical Tourism

With 50% revenue exposure to international patients, Bumrungrad should be the key beneficiary of resumption of medical tourism in Thailand and...

Tina Banerjee

Rajthanee Hospital (RJH TB): Q4 Revenue Growth to Decelerate Sequentially as Covid Tailwind Fades

Q4 revenue is expected to slow down q/q as new Covid-19 cases in Thailand is declining steadily. However, non-covid business is recovering. The...

Tina Banerjee

Bumrungrad: Bangkok Dusit's Poor Diagnosis

Bangkok Dusit Med Service (BDMS TB) has made a Conditional Voluntary Tender Offer (CVTO) for 24.99% held Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) at...

David Blennerhassett

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