Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

We believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a> will continue to execute well in the current environment. There are multiple catalysts for the share price in the not too distant future:<ul>
<li>We expect the company to announce a profit alert for H1 FY2021, which at the very least would match its full-year guidance of 73% profit growth for FY2021. Given its historical record, we would not be surprised if it handily beats its guidance.</li>
<li>Recently the controlling shareholder has also purchased stock which further increases our conviction in the name.</li>
<li>We expect the company to be on track to accomplish its GFA guidance through M&amp;A and 3rd parties.</li>
<li>The stock is cheap, trading at 12.1x FY21 and 8.0x FY22 PE, which is a massive valuation gap to its peers.</li>
<li>The company has &gt;20% of its market capitalization in cash, and we believe that it will be able to engage in shareholder-friendly activities like increasing its payout ratios. We see dividend yields improving from 2.9% in FY21 to 4.8% in FY22.  We expect an improvement in the payout ratio from 35% to 40% unless the company can increase the pace of its M&amp;A activity.</li>
</ul>

We believe that Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) will continue to execute well in the current environment. There are multiple catalysts for the share price in the not too distant future:
We expect the company to announce a profit alert for H1 FY2021, which at the very least would match its full-year guidance of 73% profit growth for FY2021. Given its historical record, we would not be surprised if it handily beats its guidance.
Recently the controlling shareholder has also purchased stock which further increases our conviction in the name.
We expect the company to be on track to accomplish its GFA guidance through M&amp;A and 3rd parties.
The stock is cheap, trading at 12.1x FY21 and 8.0x FY22 PE, which is a massive valuation gap to its peers.
The company has &gt;20% of its market capitalization in cash, and we believe that it will be able to engage in shareholder-friendly activities like increasing its payout ratios. We see dividend yields improving from 2.9% in FY21 to 4.8% in FY22.  We expect an improvement in the payout ratio from 35% to 40% unless the company can increase the pace of its M&amp;A activity.


Times Neighborhood: Good H1 2021 on the Cards

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Sichuan Languang Justbon Services / Event-Driven

Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (2606 HK)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-languang-justbon-service-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28337:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK)</a> has despatched the composite document in relation to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> base and enhanced offer. Currently, Country Garden owns 71.17% of the outstanding shares comprising 66.99% of the domestic shares and 71.20% of the H Shares. The base offer is an unconditional mandatory cash offer for all the issued shares is HK$51.0571 per H-share (RMB42.8547 per domestic share. The enhanced share offer, which is payable only if the delisting is approved, is HK$54.3000 per H-share (RMB45.5768 per domestic share). Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the base and enhanced offer to be fair and reasonable. We broadly agree with the IFA analysis with the exception that the peer multiple comparisons could be improved. The two key conditions for the delisting will be approval by at least 75% independent H-shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H-shareholders rejection) and the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of H-shares held by independent H-shareholders). Satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition is the key hurdle. We note the privatisation proposals for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-jingneng-clean-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16316:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harbin-electric-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11116:1" rel="noopener">Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK)</a> have previously failed due to the inability to meet the 90% minimum acceptance condition.  <div class="content-highlight">Country Garden Services has bought itself some leeway by having the right to extend the closing date from 17 June to not later than 3 September. In theory, the extended time period should provide a greater chance of meeting the 90% threshold. At the last close, the gross spread to the enhanced offer price of HK$54.3000 stands at 4.9%.</div>

Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) has despatched the composite document in relation to Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) base and enhanced offer. Currently, Country Garden owns 71.17% of the outstanding shares comprising 66.99% of the domestic shares and 71.20% of the H Shares. The base offer is an unconditional mandatory cash offer for all the issued shares is HK$51.0571 per H-share (RMB42.8547 per domestic share. The enhanced share offer, which is payable only if the delisting is approved, is HK$54.3000 per H-share (RMB45.5768 per domestic share). Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the base and enhanced offer to be fair and reasonable. We broadly agree with the IFA analysis with the exception that the peer multiple comparisons could be improved. The two key conditions for the delisting will be approval by at least 75% independent H-shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H-shareholders rejection) and the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of H-shares held by independent H-shareholders). Satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition is the key hurdle. We note the privatisation proposals for Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) and Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK) have previously failed due to the inability to meet the 90% minimum acceptance condition.  Country Garden Services has bought itself some leeway by having the right to extend the closing date from 17 June to not later than 3 September. In theory, the extended time period should provide a greater chance of meeting the 90% threshold. At the last close, the gross spread to the enhanced offer price of HK$54.3000 stands at 4.9%.

Languang Justbon’s Composite Document, IFA Opinion and Extended Closing Date

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a> has corrected sharply over the last 6 months despite showing stellar results. We believe that the correction in the stock is due to: <ul>
<li>A small probability of the parent ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8085:1" rel="noopener">Times China (1233 HK)</a> ) breaching the three red lines.</li>
<li>Tightening by the Chinese government in the property sector.</li>
<li>IPO fatigue in the sector. 2020 featured the listing of several property management companies that raised lots of cash, casting doubt on the companies ability to make acquisitions at good prices to fuel its future growth.</li>
<li>Pivot by the company from a more acquisitive to a third party strategy + expansion of community VAS services.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/869/original/image_15589350561618115623007.png?1618115619" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199869"></figure>Source: Bloomberg<h3>Why do we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a>?</h3><ul>
<li>We believe that with the current valuation of 12.4x FY21/8.6x FY22 and 5.8x FY23 implying &gt;50% CAGR EPS growth from FY21-23,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a> could potentially be an acquisition target for larger groups like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-mixc-lifestyle-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29285:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a-living-services-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26728:1" rel="noopener">A-Living Services (3319 HK)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-services-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29239:1" rel="noopener">Sunac Services Holdings (1516 HK)</a> that are targeting aggressive growth over the next 2-3 years. We admit that we don't know if the controlling shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a> desire to sell out. Recently though, with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-languang-justbon-service-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28337:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK)</a> founders having sold out to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK), </a>we believe this may be the first step towards increased M&amp;A activity in the listed company space. We believe this acquisition's consummation will lead to a rerating of the cheaper companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aoyuan-healthy-life-group-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29130:1" rel="noopener">Aoyuan Healthy Life Group (3662 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-china-new-life" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28953:1" rel="noopener">Central China New Life (9983 HK), </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a>  has demonstrated good execution in its short time period as a listed company. </li>
</ul>We believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a> could double from here, trading up to 25x FY21 with a target PEG of 0.6x.

Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) has corrected sharply over the last 6 months despite showing stellar results. We believe that the correction in the stock is due to: 
A small probability of the parent ( Times China (1233 HK) ) breaching the three red lines.
Tightening by the Chinese government in the property sector.
IPO fatigue in the sector. 2020 featured the listing of several property management companies that raised lots of cash, casting doubt on the companies ability to make acquisitions at good prices to fuel its future growth.
Pivot by the company from a more acquisitive to a third party strategy + expansion of community VAS services.
Source: BloombergWhy do we like Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)?
We believe that with the current valuation of 12.4x FY21/8.6x FY22 and 5.8x FY23 implying &gt;50% CAGR EPS growth from FY21-23,  Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) could potentially be an acquisition target for larger groups like Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK), China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK), A-Living Services (3319 HK) or Sunac Services Holdings (1516 HK) that are targeting aggressive growth over the next 2-3 years. We admit that we don't know if the controlling shareholders of Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) desire to sell out. Recently though, with the Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) founders having sold out to Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK), we believe this may be the first step towards increased M&amp;A activity in the listed company space. We believe this acquisition's consummation will lead to a rerating of the cheaper companies like Aoyuan Healthy Life Group (3662 HK), Central China New Life (9983 HK), and Times Neighborhood (9928 HK).

Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)  has demonstrated good execution in its short time period as a listed company. 
We believe that Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) could double from here, trading up to 25x FY21 with a target PEG of 0.6x.

Times Neighborhood - Value+Growth, Could It Be an Acquisition Target?

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a> is a direct beneficiary of the favorable policies published by The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD). In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-management-services-green-light-to-grow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46805" rel="noopener">China Property Management Services - Green-Light to Grow</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou Toh</a> detailed the policies that will benefit the property management service companies.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/times-neighborhood-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28666:1" rel="noopener">Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)</a> has corrected 40% from its peak of 13.30 HKD/share and has underperformed the MSCI index since September 2020, despite executing well and raising guidance that its earnings will grow 73% CAGR from 2019-2022e. ( Vs. previous guidance of 69%).  Based on its guidance, the stock trades at 16x FY21 and 11x FY22 ( and PEG of 0.2x).
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/612/original/image_25054916241610186672083.png?1610186676" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181612"></figure>
Source: Bloomberg, Share price in HKD
With tailwinds on policy, we see an easy path for the company to recover to its highs of 13.30 HKD/share.

Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) is a direct beneficiary of the favorable policies published by The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD). In his insight, China Property Management Services - Green-Light to Grow, Zhen Zhou Toh detailed the policies that will benefit the property management service companies.
Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) has corrected 40% from its peak of 13.30 HKD/share and has underperformed the MSCI index since September 2020, despite executing well and raising guidance that its earnings will grow 73% CAGR from 2019-2022e. ( Vs. previous guidance of 69%).  Based on its guidance, the stock trades at 16x FY21 and 11x FY22 ( and PEG of 0.2x).

Source: Bloomberg, Share price in HKD
With tailwinds on policy, we see an easy path for the company to recover to its highs of 13.30 HKD/share. 

Times Neighborhood: Beneficiary of Policy

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sino-Ocean Service / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-ocean-service" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31037:1" rel="noopener">Sino-Ocean Service (6677 HK)</a> is looking to raise US$256m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.Sino-Ocean Services (SOS) is the property management arm of Sino-Ocean Group. The company focuses on managing properties in first and second-tier cities in China.Valuation isn’t exactly compelling considering SOS didn’t really stand out among peers as per our previous note.  Revenue growth has been decelerating, gross margin was mostly stagnant between FY2017 to FY2019 before expanding in 1H FY2020. Reserved GFA also indicates a short growth runway. The company, at best, is fairly valued at the low-end.In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.Our previous coverage of the IPO:<ul><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sino-ocean-services-pre-ipo-nothing-stands-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45646" rel="noopener">Sino-Ocean Services (远洋服务) Pre-IPO - Nothing Stands Out</a> </li></ul>

Sino-Ocean Service (6677 HK) is looking to raise US$256m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.Sino-Ocean Services (SOS) is the property management arm of Sino-Ocean Group. The company focuses on managing properties in first and second-tier cities in China.Valuation isn’t exactly compelling considering SOS didn’t really stand out among peers as per our previous note.  Revenue growth has been decelerating, gross margin was mostly stagnant between FY2017 to FY2019 before expanding in 1H FY2020. Reserved GFA also indicates a short growth runway. The company, at best, is fairly valued at the low-end.In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.Our previous coverage of the IPO:Sino-Ocean Services (远洋服务) Pre-IPO - Nothing Stands Out 

Sino-Ocean Services (远洋服务) IPO - Fairly Valued, at Best

China

Times Neighborhood Holdings Ltd. is a property management service provider in the People's Republic of China, managing residential, commercial, industrial, and public properties. It also offers community value-added services, value-added services to non-property owners, and professional services like elevator maintenance. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

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Times Neighborhood (9928 HK)

Times Neighborhood: Good H1 2021 on the Cards

Times Neighborhood is one of the most attractive property management companies with a 50% 3 yr-CAGR in profit growth trading at 12x FY21 and 8x...

Sameer Taneja

Languang Justbon’s Composite Document, IFA Opinion and Extended Closing Date

Satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition is the key hurdle. At the last close, the gross spread to the enhanced offer price of HK$54.3000...

Arun George

Times Neighborhood - Value+Growth, Could It Be an Acquisition Target?

This insight highlights an opportunity in the property management company Times Neighborhood, having a 50% CAGR in profits from 2020-23 and trading...

Sameer Taneja

Times Neighborhood: Beneficiary of Policy

This insight highlights an opportunity that has arisen in the property management company Times Neighborhood, which will have a 78% CAGR in profits...

Sameer Taneja

Sino-Ocean Services (远洋服务) IPO - Fairly Valued, at Best

Sino-Ocean Services (SOS) is the property management arm of Sino-Ocean Group. The company focuses on managing properties in first and second-tier...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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