Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The SET's movement was disappointing as declines in EA, KKP, TISCO, TCAP, finance and petrol stocks put significant pressure on the index, exacerbated by the lack of clarity regarding the TESG fund.</li><li>The index dropped sharply with a full-body black candlestick, and the MACD began to decline after previously nearing the zero line.</li><li>We view that the support level will be the buying or selling point (falling below the support level) and still hope that the index will be able to rebound.</li></ul>

The SET's movement was disappointing as declines in EA, KKP, TISCO, TCAP, finance and petrol stocks put significant pressure on the index, exacerbated by the lack of clarity regarding the TESG fund.The index dropped sharply with a full-body black candlestick, and the MACD began to decline after previously nearing the zero line.We view that the support level will be the buying or selling point (falling below the support level) and still hope that the index will be able to rebound.

Recommendation: Buy or Sell at the Support

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The seven commercial banks we are monitoring reported a combined net profit of Bt53.5bn in 2Q24, up 2.7% YoY but down 11.2% QoQ.</li><li>Overall, loan growth remained stagnant as banks continued to operate cautiously.</li><li>Meanwhile, net interest margins (NIM) faced pressure, albeit to a lesser extent, from the repricing of fixed deposits. </li></ul>

The seven commercial banks we are monitoring reported a combined net profit of Bt53.5bn in 2Q24, up 2.7% YoY but down 11.2% QoQ.Overall, loan growth remained stagnant as banks continued to operate cautiously.Meanwhile, net interest margins (NIM) faced pressure, albeit to a lesser extent, from the repricing of fixed deposits. 

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX anticipates the index to experience fluctuations, with support expected at 1,280/1,260 points and resistance at 1,350 points.</li><li>The Third Plenum of Communist Party Meeting scheduled for July 15-18, expected to announce significant policy reforms in economics and politics, potentially impacting market sentiment positive.</li><li>Based on five-year historical data (2019-23), there was a 60% possibility that the SET would close negative, with the average at -0.39%, the maximum at +3.52% in 2023 and the minimum at -4.15% in 2021.</li></ul>

KTX anticipates the index to experience fluctuations, with support expected at 1,280/1,260 points and resistance at 1,350 points.The Third Plenum of Communist Party Meeting scheduled for July 15-18, expected to announce significant policy reforms in economics and politics, potentially impacting market sentiment positive.Based on five-year historical data (2019-23), there was a 60% possibility that the SET would close negative, with the average at -0.39%, the maximum at +3.52% in 2023 and the minimum at -4.15% in 2021.

Outlook: Fluctuations, With the Support at 1,280/1,260 Points and the Resistance at 1,330/1,350 Points

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.</li>
<li>Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. </li>
<li>Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.</li>
</ul>


Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. 
Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.


Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

<ul><li>KTX expects the MPC to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50% throughout the rest of this year based on the latest resolution of the MPC, with support increasing from 5 to 6 votes to maintain the current rate.</li><li>This interest rate level aligns with the overall economic conditions.</li><li>The Thai economy has shown signs of improvement, particularly in terms of state investment and private consumption.</li></ul>

KTX expects the MPC to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50% throughout the rest of this year based on the latest resolution of the MPC, with support increasing from 5 to 6 votes to maintain the current rate.This interest rate level aligns with the overall economic conditions.The Thai economy has shown signs of improvement, particularly in terms of state investment and private consumption.

Economic Update: MPC Voted 6:1 to Maintain Rates at 2.50%

Thailand

TISCO Financial Group Public Co. Ltd. is a Thai financial services company operating through commercial banking, securities, asset management, and support businesses. It offers a wide range of products including retail and corporate loans, deposit products, investment services, and insurance. The company also provides investment banking, private banking, and wealth management services. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, TISCO was established in 1969 as Thailand's first investment bank.

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TISCO Financial Group (TISCO TB)

Recommendation: Buy or Sell at the Support

The SET's movement was disappointing as declines in EA, KKP, TISCO, TCAP, finance and petrol stocks put significant pressure on the index,...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Banking: Jul 23, 2024

The seven commercial banks we are monitoring reported a combined net profit of Bt53.5bn in 2Q24, up 2.7% YoY but down 11.2% QoQ.

Krungthai XSpring

Outlook: Fluctuations, With the Support at 1,280/1,260 Points and the Resistance at 1,330/1,350 Points

KTX anticipates the index to experience fluctuations, with support expected at 1,280/1,260 points and resistance at 1,350 points. The Third Plenum...

Krungthai XSpring

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

Economic Update: MPC Voted 6:1 to Maintain Rates at 2.50%

This interest rate level aligns with the overall economic conditions. The Thai economy has shown signs of improvement, particularly in terms of...

Krungthai XSpring

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