Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised the market with a 4:2 vote to cut the policy rate to 1.00%, earlier than expected, marking the lowest level in three years and four months.</li><li>Share prices declined following the rate cut, which came earlier than the market had expected.</li><li>Banking stocks (SETBANK) declined by 0.8% yesterday (led by BAY -2.8%, KBANK -2.24%, and KKP -1.62%) in response to the MPC’s decision to cut interest rates earlier than the market had expected.</li></ul>

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised the market with a 4:2 vote to cut the policy rate to 1.00%, earlier than expected, marking the lowest level in three years and four months.Share prices declined following the rate cut, which came earlier than the market had expected.Banking stocks (SETBANK) declined by 0.8% yesterday (led by BAY -2.8%, KBANK -2.24%, and KKP -1.62%) in response to the MPC’s decision to cut interest rates earlier than the market had expected.

Banking: Banking Stocks Declined, Reflecting the MPC’s Earlier-Than-Expected Rate Cut.

<ul><li>Commercial bank earnings in 4Q25 softened due to NIM pressure, continued YoY loan contraction, and weaker non-NII following a high investment-income base in 3Q25.</li><li>For 2025, sector earnings still grew 3% YoY, supported by non-NII and cost control, while 2026E profits are expected to decline around 7% amid NIM pressure and a high non-NII base.</li><li>We maintain an Overweight stance on the banking sector, favoring KBANK and KKP.</li></ul>

Commercial bank earnings in 4Q25 softened due to NIM pressure, continued YoY loan contraction, and weaker non-NII following a high investment-income base in 3Q25.For 2025, sector earnings still grew 3% YoY, supported by non-NII and cost control, while 2026E profits are expected to decline around 7% amid NIM pressure and a high non-NII base.We maintain an Overweight stance on the banking sector, favoring KBANK and KKP.

Banking: NIM Remained a Headwind to Earnings...

<ul><li>The US: Global financial markets eased (S&amp;P 500 +1.16%, NASDAQ +1.18%, US 10Y yield declined from 4.3% to 4.26%, Dollar Index +0.25%) after Donald Trump said, following discussions with the Secretary General of NATO, that both sides had reached a “framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland”.</li><li>Thailand: The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) assessed Thailand’s industrial outlook for 2026 and highlighted the following trends: (i) expansion in sectors such as food and beverages and sugar; (ii) stable conditions in automobiles, electronics, power generation, and gems and jewelry; and (iii) contraction in sectors such as rubber and petrochemicals.</li><li>Thailand: Since January 14, the Thai equity market has rallied sharply, with the SET Index rising from 1,235.3 to 1,317.56, or +6.66%, driven by fund inflows.</li></ul>

The US: Global financial markets eased (S&amp;P 500 +1.16%, NASDAQ +1.18%, US 10Y yield declined from 4.3% to 4.26%, Dollar Index +0.25%) after Donald Trump said, following discussions with the Secretary General of NATO, that both sides had reached a “framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland”.Thailand: The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) assessed Thailand’s industrial outlook for 2026 and highlighted the following trends: (i) expansion in sectors such as food and beverages and sugar; (ii) stable conditions in automobiles, electronics, power generation, and gems and jewelry; and (iii) contraction in sectors such as rubber and petrochemicals.Thailand: Since January 14, the Thai equity market has rallied sharply, with the SET Index rising from 1,235.3 to 1,317.56, or +6.66%, driven by fund inflows.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. January 22, 2026

<ul><li>The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announced a reduction in the contribution rate to the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) by 0.14%, from 0.46% per year to 0.32% per year, effective immediately through end-2026.</li><li>We assess the net profit impact as moderate. Although the 0.14% cut translates into system-wide savings of around Bt22–23bn per year, the measure is intended to allow banks to pass on lower costs to support SMEs and vulnerable borrowers, which carry higher credit risk.</li><li>We take a slightly positive medium-term view. Allowing room for loan rate cuts should ease borrowers’ financial burdens, helping slow new NPL formation and reduce provisioning pressure over the medium to long term.</li></ul>

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announced a reduction in the contribution rate to the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) by 0.14%, from 0.46% per year to 0.32% per year, effective immediately through end-2026.We assess the net profit impact as moderate. Although the 0.14% cut translates into system-wide savings of around Bt22–23bn per year, the measure is intended to allow banks to pass on lower costs to support SMEs and vulnerable borrowers, which carry higher credit risk.We take a slightly positive medium-term view. Allowing room for loan rate cuts should ease borrowers’ financial burdens, helping slow new NPL formation and reduce provisioning pressure over the medium to long term.

Banking: BoT Cuts FIDF Contribution From 0.46% To 0.32%...

<ul><li>We expect 4Q25E net profit for the six banks under our coverage in at Bt42bn, up 2.7% YoY but down 11.5% QoQ, due to weaker net interest income from slower loan growth and lower NIM.</li><li>We maintain an Overweight view on the banking sector, supported by excess liquidity in a declining rate environment, enabling proactive capital management and high dividends, which should support medium-term PBV re-rating.</li><li>Banks’ 4Q25E earnings are expected to rise slightly YoY but decline QoQ.</li></ul>

We expect 4Q25E net profit for the six banks under our coverage in at Bt42bn, up 2.7% YoY but down 11.5% QoQ, due to weaker net interest income from slower loan growth and lower NIM.We maintain an Overweight view on the banking sector, supported by excess liquidity in a declining rate environment, enabling proactive capital management and high dividends, which should support medium-term PBV re-rating.Banks’ 4Q25E earnings are expected to rise slightly YoY but decline QoQ.

Banking: Banks’ 4Q25E Earnings To Grow YoY But Slip QoQ – Overweight

Thailand

TISCO Financial Group Public Co. Ltd. is a Thai financial services company operating through commercial banking, securities, asset management, and support businesses. It offers a wide range of products including retail and corporate loans, deposit products, investment services, and insurance. The company also provides investment banking, private banking, and wealth management services. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, TISCO was established in 1969 as Thailand's first investment bank.

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TISCO Financial Group (TISCO TB)

Banking: Banking Stocks Declined, Reflecting the MPC’s Earlier-Than-Expected Rate Cut.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised the market with a 4:2 vote to cut the policy rate to 1.00%, earlier than expected, marking the lowest...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: NIM Remained a Headwind to Earnings...

Commercial bank earnings in 4Q25 softened due to NIM pressure, continued YoY loan contraction, and weaker non-NII following a high investment...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. January 22, 2026

Thailand: Since January 14, the Thai equity market has rallied sharply, with the SET Index rising from 1,235.3 to 1,317.56, or +6.66%, driven by...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: BoT Cuts FIDF Contribution From 0.46% To 0.32%...

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announced a reduction in the contribution rate to the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) by 0.14%, from...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: Banks’ 4Q25E Earnings To Grow YoY But Slip QoQ – Overweight

We expect 4Q25E net profit for the six banks under our coverage in at Bt42bn, up 2.7% YoY but down 11.5% QoQ, due to weaker net interest income...

Krungthai XSpring

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