Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Titan: Titan’s top-line growth remains healthy. Revenue grew 26% YoY to INR 119bn</li><li>Ex-bullion sales grew 22% YoY to INR97.5bn (in-line) as both buyers’ growth (+14% YoY) and ticket sizes (+6% YoY) aided growth</li><li>The key take from the Q1 print was the preference for market share gain over margins</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Titan: Titan’s top-line growth remains healthy. Revenue grew 26% YoY to INR 119bnEx-bullion sales grew 22% YoY to INR97.5bn (in-line) as both buyers’ growth (+14% YoY) and ticket sizes (+6% YoY) aided growthThe key take from the Q1 print was the preference for market share gain over marginsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Ambuja Cement, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Capital Markets

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalithaa-jewellery-mart-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45292:1" rel="noopener">Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN)</a>'s IPO issue of INR 17 billion is a combination of fresh issue of INR 12 billion and offer for sale of INR 5 billion.</li>
<li>In this insight we discuss about on ground feedback from our conversations with multiple vendors, peers and merchant in the Chennai Jewellery market where the company has sizeable presence.</li>
<li>We finally conclude our findings and present our view on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN)'s IPO issue of INR 17 billion is a combination of fresh issue of INR 12 billion and offer for sale of INR 5 billion.
In this insight we discuss about on ground feedback from our conversations with multiple vendors, peers and merchant in the Chennai Jewellery market where the company has sizeable presence.
We finally conclude our findings and present our view on the IPO.


Lalitha Jewellery IPO - On Ground Feedback From Chennai

<ul><li>Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~15% YoY in Q1FY24</li><li>However, beneath the averages lies the rub</li><li>Excluding 3 companies the average drops to sub 10%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~15% YoY in Q1FY24However, beneath the averages lies the rubExcluding 3 companies the average drops to sub 10%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary: Beneath the averages lies the rub

India

Titan Company Limited is an Indian fashion accessories company that primarily manufactures jewellery, watches, and eyewear. The company also offers fragrances, fashion accessories, and Indian dress wear under various brands. It is part of the Tata Group and was founded in 1984, with its corporate headquarters in Bengaluru, India.

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Titan (TTAN IN)

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Ambuja Cement, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

Ex-bullion sales grew 22% YoY to INR97.5bn (in-line) as both buyers’ growth (+14% YoY) and ticket sizes (+6% YoY) aided growth

HDFC Securities

Lalitha Jewellery IPO - On Ground Feedback From Chennai

Insight on Lalitha Jewellery IPO - Discusses about channel feedback from multiple vendors, competitors in Chennai and Tamil Nadu - one of the key...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Consumer Discretionary: Beneath the averages lies the rub

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~15% YoY in Q1FY24. However, beneath the averages lies the rub. Excluding 3 companies the average...

HDFC Securities

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