Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY</li>
<li>FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1</li>
<li>R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY
FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1
R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%


Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

<ul><li>In FY03/25, the company achieved revenue of JPY2.43tn, operating profit of JPY697.3bn, and net income of JPY544.1bn.</li><li>For FY03/26, the company projects revenue of JPY2.6tn, operating profit of JPY727.0bn, and net income of JPY566.0bn.</li><li>The company plans to increase R&D expenses to JPY300.0bn in FY03/26, up from JPY250.0bn in FY03/25.</li></ul>

In FY03/25, the company achieved revenue of JPY2.43tn, operating profit of JPY697.3bn, and net income of JPY544.1bn.For FY03/26, the company projects revenue of JPY2.6tn, operating profit of JPY727.0bn, and net income of JPY566.0bn.The company plans to increase R&D expenses to JPY300.0bn in FY03/26, up from JPY250.0bn in FY03/25.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>After dropping by half, Tokyo Electron's share price has bounced. But it is still vulnerable to cutbacks in AI-related investments and tariff-induced recession.</li>
<li>A positive scenario has net profit rising by 8% in FY Mar-26. In a negative scenario, it drops by 25%. We take the positive view.</li>
<li>Innovations in manufacturing point toward a big step up in profit margins by the end of the decade. But watch out for a cyclical downturn between now and then.</li>
</ul>


After dropping by half, Tokyo Electron's share price has bounced. But it is still vulnerable to cutbacks in AI-related investments and tariff-induced recession.
A positive scenario has net profit rising by 8% in FY Mar-26. In a negative scenario, it drops by 25%. We take the positive view.
Innovations in manufacturing point toward a big step up in profit margins by the end of the decade. But watch out for a cyclical downturn between now and then.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Buy if You're Not Afraid of Recession

<ul><li>Cumulative Q3 FY03/25 revenue was JPY1.78tn (+38.4% YoY), with operating profit at JPY513.5bn (+65.1% YoY).</li><li>Full-year forecast for FY03/25 revised: revenue JPY2.40tn, operating profit JPY680.0bn, net income JPY526.0bn.</li><li>New SPE sales forecast: JPY1.83tn, with logic foundry JPY1.17tn, non-volatile memory JPY119.6bn, DRAM JPY545.1bn.</li></ul>

Cumulative Q3 FY03/25 revenue was JPY1.78tn (+38.4% YoY), with operating profit at JPY513.5bn (+65.1% YoY).Full-year forecast for FY03/25 revised: revenue JPY2.40tn, operating profit JPY680.0bn, net income JPY526.0bn.New SPE sales forecast: JPY1.83tn, with logic foundry JPY1.17tn, non-volatile memory JPY119.6bn, DRAM JPY545.1bn.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.</li>
<li>In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.</li>
</ul>


Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.
In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.
Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.


Tokyo Electron (TEL):  Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating