Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

The drop through Topix 1,680 signalled a change of trend, and we continue to target the 1,450-1,550 zone as a medium-term minimum.  One viable wave count would see Topix back below 1,200, retracing the entire post-2016 uptrend.  The wave down to the March low also counts as an initial bear market leg, but the current rally does not yet look complete.  The indicators are not yet overbought again, let alone producing bearish divergence, and the index should reach at least the 1,805-1,830 range.  The Dollar/Yen should also provide support, and note that TSE2 has recently given a “buy” signal.  We still view the market as a medium-term Sell (i.e. on more of a rally), but we are not yet ready to adopt an immediately aggressive bearish stance.

 The drop through Topix 1,680 signalled a change of trend, and we continue to target the 1,450-1,550 zone as a medium-term minimum.  One viable wave count would see Topix back below 1,200, retracing the entire post-2016 uptrend.  The wave down to the March low also counts as an initial bear market leg, but the current rally does not yet look complete.  The indicators are not yet overbought again, let alone producing bearish divergence, and the index should reach at least the 1,805-1,830 range.  The Dollar/Yen should also provide support, and note that TSE2 has recently given a “buy” signal.  We still view the market as a medium-term Sell (i.e. on more of a rally), but we are not yet ready to adopt an immediately aggressive bearish stance.

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related energy and materials stocks are reaping the benefits. We expect their outperformance to continue. In this week's report we highlight commodities and actionable associated stocks.

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related energy and materials stocks are reaping the benefits. We expect their outperformance to continue. In this week's report we highlight commodities and actionable associated stocks.

Opportunities in Global Energy & Materials Stocks

Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

For years, ROE among Japanese companies languished in low single digits. No more. The average ROE rose to 9.1% in the fiscal year 2017, clearing the 8% "minimum" target set by the influential government commission Ito Report published in 2014. The Japanese companies managed to raise their ROE not through financial leverage but through higher ROA and fatter profit margin. We find it remarkable that non-manufacturers, long considered an inefficient part of Japan Inc. are enjoying an unprecedented level of ROA in recent years. In our view, the rise in ROE is combined results of the cyclical upturn in the economy and the improvements in the corporate governance in Japan.

For years, ROE among Japanese companies languished in low single digits. No more. The average ROE rose to 9.1% in the fiscal year 2017, clearing the 8% "minimum" target set by the influential government commission Ito Report published in 2014. The Japanese companies managed to raise their ROE not through financial leverage but through higher ROA and fatter profit margin. We find it remarkable that non-manufacturers, long considered an inefficient part of Japan Inc. are enjoying an unprecedented level of ROA in recent years. In our view, the rise in ROE is combined results of the cyclical upturn in the economy and the improvements in the corporate governance in Japan. 

Japan Entering a New Era of Capital Efficiency

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

S&P 500: What Are the Odds of a Crash?

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”. This is not a forecast as such, because...

Peter Beuttell

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Topix: This Is a Bear Market Rally

The drop through Topix 1,680 signalled a change of trend, and we continue to target the 1,450-1,550 zone as a medium-term minimum. One viable...

Peter Beuttell

Opportunities in Global Energy & Materials Stocks

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related...

Vermilion Research

Japan Entering a New Era of Capital Efficiency

For years, ROE among Japanese companies languished in low single digits. No more. The average ROE rose to 9.1% in the fiscal year 2017, clearing...

Takuji Okubo