Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Topix is short-term overbought, both hourly (below) and daily (not shown), and is close to completing a 5-week 5-wave rally as it tests the 2015 peak. The 63-week cycle is also due to turn this week or next. Over the past 15 years, its effect has varied between marking major lows (2003) to almost no visible effect, and its influence does seem to have diminished at recent turns.  The current overall configuration suggests that only a minor top should occur now, and we’re not expecting more than a…

Topix is short-term overbought, both hourly (below) and daily (not shown), and is close to completing a 5-week 5-wave rally as it tests the 2015 peak. The 63-week cycle is also due to turn this week or next. Over the past 15 years, its effect has varied between marking major lows (2003) to almost no visible effect, and its influence does seem to have diminished at recent turns.  The current overall configuration suggests that only a minor top should occur now, and we’re not expecting more than a…

Topix: How the Indicators Look as the 2015 High Is Tested

The market is nearing its 2015 peak, which sits just below the massive resistance in the Topix 1,708-1,823 range from no less than the six tops which formed in the 1994-2007 period. In addition, almost all of our indicators contain warning signals. Despite this, the rally pattern of the last 15 months does not yet look compellingly complete, and that is supported by the other regional wave counts. We are raising our expectations to at least 1,788, but a broad cluster of 1,810-1,840 around the 2007 high is achievable.  The September low at 1,578 is our stop on this view.

The market is nearing its 2015 peak, which sits just below the massive resistance in the Topix 1,708-1,823 range from no less than the six tops which formed in the 1994-2007 period. In addition, almost all of our indicators contain warning signals. Despite this, the rally pattern of the last 15 months does not yet look compellingly complete, and that is supported by the other regional wave counts. We are raising our expectations to at least 1,788, but a broad cluster of 1,810-1,840 around the 2007 high is achievable.  The September low at 1,578 is our stop on this view.

Topix: How Far Can This Bull Market Carry?

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

The Nikkei 225 (NKY 20,267) is expected to make new highs above last year’s 20,953 peak, as the bull market that started in 2008 continues. The favourable breadth of the broader Topix Index (TPX – 1,664), which has been a leading indicator for this bull market continues to impress. There is a chance that as the Nikkei 225 finally moves away from the 20,000+ resistance zone, a ceiling for 24 years, that the market ignites a wave of speculation that takes the index well above our base case target of 24,000+.

The Nikkei 225 (NKY 20,267) is expected to make new highs above last year’s 20,953 peak, as the bull market that started in 2008 continues. The favourable breadth of the broader Topix Index (TPX – 1,664), which has been a leading indicator for this bull market continues to impress. There is a chance that as the Nikkei 225 finally moves away from the 20,000+ resistance zone, a ceiling for 24 years, that the market ignites a wave of speculation that takes the index well above our base case target of 24,000+.

Land of the Rising Index – Japanese Equities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This is a reintroduction to a set of screens and seasonality of risk and return analyses that I run for most markets. Different markets have different seasonalities but Japan has quite clear seasonality from Q4 through about April into early May (the "win ratio" of good months vs bad months) is quite high. From mid-May to the end of October, the average is just around 50% - just below 50% for the last 25yrs, just above 50% for the previous 25yrs for TOPIX. Dividends do not pay for the average…

This is a reintroduction to a set of screens and seasonality of risk and return analyses that I run for most markets. Different markets have different seasonalities but Japan has quite clear seasonality from Q4 through about April into early May (the "win ratio" of good months vs bad months) is quite high. From mid-May to the end of October, the average is just around 50% - just below 50% for the last 25yrs, just above 50% for the previous 25yrs for TOPIX. Dividends do not pay for the average…

Japan Stock Market Seasonality - Early Summer Sprites Turn to Late Summer Ogres

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Topix: How the Indicators Look as the 2015 High Is Tested

Topix is short-term overbought, both hourly (below) and daily (not shown), and is close to completing a 5-week 5-wave rally as it tests the 2015...

Peter Beuttell

Topix: How Far Can This Bull Market Carry?

The market is nearing its 2015 peak, which sits just below the massive resistance in the Topix 1,708-1,823 range from no less than the six tops...

Peter Beuttell

Land of the Rising Index – Japanese Equities

The Nikkei 225 (NKY 20,267) is expected to make new highs above last year’s 20,953 peak, as the bull market that started in 2008 continues. The...

Chris Roberts

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs –...

Vermilion Research

Japan Stock Market Seasonality - Early Summer Sprites Turn to Late Summer Ogres

This is a reintroduction to a set of screens and seasonality of risk and return analyses that I run for most markets. Different markets have...

Travis Lundy