Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> is looking to raise up to JPY137bn (US$940m) by selling 73.9m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> to international investors.</li>
<li>The indicative price range is JPY 1,812-1,848/share, a discount of 1-2.95% to Monday's close. The placement is 4.1% of shares outstanding and is 4.7 days of ADV.</li>
<li>We do not expect any passive buying at the time of settlement of the placement shares. The earliest passive buying will take place in August and September.</li>
</ul>



Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise up to JPY137bn (US$940m) by selling 73.9m shares of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) to international investors.
The indicative price range is JPY 1,812-1,848/share, a discount of 1-2.95% to Monday's close. The placement is 4.1% of shares outstanding and is 4.7 days of ADV.
We do not expect any passive buying at the time of settlement of the placement shares. The earliest passive buying will take place in August and September.


Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters

<ul>
<li>There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.</li>
<li>Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>The forecast deletes have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a> on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.</li>
</ul>


There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.


Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.</li><li>My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.</li><li>The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.</li></ul>

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.</li>
<li>Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.</li>
<li>Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.</li>
</ul>


The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.


EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

<ul>
<li>Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's meeting with US President Trump shines the spotlight on potential US tariffs on Japanese cars. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor's (7203 JP)</a> high implied volatility expresses elevated risk.</li>
<li>Risk analysis suggests a range of option strategies. Implementation is challenging due to low liquidity in the Japanese market.</li>
<li>Option liquidity is higher in the US traded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp-spon-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8245:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor Corp Spon ADR (TM US)</a> which is the preferred route of implementation.</li>
</ul>


Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's meeting with US President Trump shines the spotlight on potential US tariffs on Japanese cars. Toyota Motor's (7203 JP) high implied volatility expresses elevated risk.
Risk analysis suggests a range of option strategies. Implementation is challenging due to low liquidity in the Japanese market.
Option liquidity is higher in the US traded Toyota Motor Corp Spon ADR (TM US) which is the preferred route of implementation.


EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) - Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters

Denso should raise US$940m by selling nearly their entire holding in Renesas Electronics. Unlikely to be any passive buying in the near term, but...

Brian Freitas

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) - Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension

Toyota Motor's high implied volatility indicates elevated risk due to potential US tariffs but offers opportunity as well.

Gaudenz Schneider

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters

Denso should raise US$940m by selling nearly their entire holding in Renesas Electronics. Unlikely to be any passive buying in the near term, but...

Brian Freitas

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

​Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) - Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension

Toyota Motor's high implied volatility indicates elevated risk due to potential US tariffs but offers opportunity as well.

Gaudenz Schneider

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...