Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25</li>
</ul>


How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25


Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 - Asian Equities

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> will report FY 2025 results on Thursday, 9 October 2025. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.</li>
<li>
Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2–9%, with announcement-day beta vs. the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> more than doubling. Despite illiquidity, options imply a ±4.7% swing — in line with history.</li>
<li>
Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report FY 2025 results on Thursday, 9 October 2025. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.

Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2–9%, with announcement-day beta vs. the Nikkei 225 more than doubling. Despite illiquidity, options imply a ±4.7% swing — in line with history.

Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>Section-Transfer name <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-business-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40379:1" rel="noopener">Japan Business Systems (5036 JP)</a> is expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of October 2025.</li>
<li>New listings <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orion-breweries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45701:1" rel="noopener">Orion Breweries (409A JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a> are expected to be included in TOPIX at the end of October 2025 and November 2025 respectively.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Section-Transfer name Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) is expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of October 2025.
New listings Orion Breweries (409A JP) and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) are expected to be included in TOPIX at the end of October 2025 and November 2025 respectively.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a>'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.</li>
<li>At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a> will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).</li>
<li>The stock should be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX INDEX</a> at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.</li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.
At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.


Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June

<ul>
<li>
Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
<li>
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 - Asian Equities

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report tomorrow, Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close. The stock is up 3.5% from its low last Friday; an...

Gaudenz Schneider

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2025)

We expect Orion Breweries (409A JP) to outperform Yakult Honsha (2267 JP) until the close of trading on 30th October 2025 due to strong opposing...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June

Tekscend Photomask will list on the JPX on 16 Oct after raising up to US$924m and valuing the company at US$2bn. TOPIX inclusion in Nov. One global...

Brian Freitas

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 - Asian Equities

​A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report tomorrow, Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close. The stock is up 3.5% from its low last Friday; an...

Gaudenz Schneider

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2025)

We expect Orion Breweries (409A JP) to outperform Yakult Honsha (2267 JP) until the close of trading on 30th October 2025 due to strong opposing...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June

Tekscend Photomask will list on the JPX on 16 Oct after raising up to US$924m and valuing the company at US$2bn. TOPIX inclusion in Nov. One global...

Brian Freitas

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.