Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: After three consecutive down weeks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> has entered oversold territory, triggering a potential upside signal in quantitative models.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: With signs pointing to a short-term reversal, a Bull Call Spread strategy offers high return potential (~12x premium) with limited upfront cost. </li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking tactical exposure. Details Provided.</li>
</ul>



Context: After three consecutive down weeks, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has entered oversold territory, triggering a potential upside signal in quantitative models.

Trade Idea: With signs pointing to a short-term reversal, a Bull Call Spread strategy offers high return potential (~12x premium) with limited upfront cost. 

Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking tactical exposure. Details Provided.


Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Oversold: Your High-Potential Options Strategy

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Oil’s positive reaction to bearish news was a signal to go long.</li>
<li>Regardless of the outcome of the current fighting between Israel and Iran, oil has likely bottomed.</li>
<li>We add oil and related equities to the inflation basket</li>
</ul>


Oil’s positive reaction to bearish news was a signal to go long.
Regardless of the outcome of the current fighting between Israel and Iran, oil has likely bottomed.
We add oil and related equities to the inflation basket


Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-financial-gate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35234:1" rel="noopener">GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azoom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32232:1" rel="noopener">Azoom (3496 JP)</a> have confirmed their moves to the Prime Market which would trigger TOPIX Inclusions for these names at the end of July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitazato-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45255:1" rel="noopener">Kitazato (368A JP)</a> is expected to get listed in the Prime market in late-June and that name would also have a TOPIX Inclusion at the end of July. </li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP) and Azoom (3496 JP) have confirmed their moves to the Prime Market which would trigger TOPIX Inclusions for these names at the end of July.

Kitazato (368A JP) is expected to get listed in the Prime market in late-June and that name would also have a TOPIX Inclusion at the end of July. 


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2025)

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.</li>
<li>Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.</li>
<li>While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.</li>
</ul>


With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.
Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.
While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.


Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>For each share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>, shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.</li>
<li>The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a> and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.</li>
<li>There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.</li>
</ul>


For each share of Sony Corp (6758 JP), shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.
The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the Nikkei225 and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.
There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.


Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)'s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Oversold: Your High-Potential Options Strategy

Toyota Motor (7203 JP // TM US) may be poised for a short-term rebound, making a Bull Call Spread strategy an attractive tactical trade idea with...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Oil joins the commodity rally and has likely bottommed regardless of the outcome in the current Israel/Iran fighting. OIl related equities are now...

Rikki Malik

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2025)

There are currently 121 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 140 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Stay ahead of potential tail risks: with the Bank of Japan's crucial rate decision just two days away, this analysis reveals why the June 17...

Gaudenz Schneider

Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)'s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business

Sony will distribute SFGI shares with an ex-date of 29 Sep. There will be selling from NKY trackers on listing day and possibly from global index...

Brian Freitas

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Oversold: Your High-Potential Options Strategy

​Toyota Motor (7203 JP // TM US) may be poised for a short-term rebound, making a Bull Call Spread strategy an attractive tactical trade idea with...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Oil joins the commodity rally and has likely bottommed regardless of the outcome in the current Israel/Iran fighting. OIl related equities are now...

Rikki Malik

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2025)

There are currently 121 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 140 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Stay ahead of potential tail risks: with the Bank of Japan's crucial rate decision just two days away, this analysis reveals why the June 17...

Gaudenz Schneider

Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)'s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business

Sony will distribute SFGI shares with an ex-date of 29 Sep. There will be selling from NKY trackers on listing day and possibly from global index...

Brian Freitas

Toyota Motor (7203 JP // TM US) may be poised for a short-term rebound, making a Bull Call Spread strategy an attractive tactical trade idea with...