Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Despite shipment continued to fall y/y, all major markets experienced deceleration in decline.</li><li>DMs like US &amp; W Europe did better with more material deceleration, which helped Apple to solidify its market position.</li><li>EMs remained weak with APAC (ex-Jap &amp; China), CEE and MEA falling 17-20% y/y, which was a bigger headache to the Android camp, especially the Chinese players, among which, Xiaomi had relatively poorer performance.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

Despite shipment continued to fall y/y, all major markets experienced deceleration in decline.DMs like US &amp; W Europe did better with more material deceleration, which helped Apple to solidify its market position.EMs remained weak with APAC (ex-Jap &amp; China), CEE and MEA falling 17-20% y/y, which was a bigger headache to the Android camp, especially the Chinese players, among which, Xiaomi had relatively poorer performance.

Smartphone – Global Vs China Decelerated Downtrends

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tongda’s FY22 revenue/net profit declined 20%/40% YoY, below our/market expectations due to weak Android demand and macro headwinds, but GPM improved 2.5ppts YoY to 18.4% on better product mix.</li><li>Looking ahead, while Android market remains challenging in 1H23E, mgmt. is positive on Apple products to drive ASP &amp; GPM upside in 2H23E, and non-handset business will become major growth drivers in FY23-24E.</li><li>We revised down our FY23-24E EPS by 19-23% to reflect lower sales, better margins and dilution impact of award shares in FY22.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tongda’s FY22 revenue/net profit declined 20%/40% YoY, below our/market expectations due to weak Android demand and macro headwinds, but GPM improved 2.5ppts YoY to 18.4% on better product mix.Looking ahead, while Android market remains challenging in 1H23E, mgmt. is positive on Apple products to drive ASP &amp; GPM upside in 2H23E, and non-handset business will become major growth drivers in FY23-24E.We revised down our FY23-24E EPS by 19-23% to reflect lower sales, better margins and dilution impact of award shares in FY22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongda (698 HK) – FY22 results below; GPM recovery on better product mix

<ul><li>Apple reported a FY1Q (CY4Q22) with EPS of US$1.88 (-10% YoY) and revenue of US$117.2bn (-5% YoY), which are 3.1% and 3.3% below consensus, largely due to weak macro and iPhone 14 Pro/Max supply chain constraints on COVID-19 in China.</li><li>Looking into FY2Q23, mgmt. expected revenue to perform similarly to FY1Q23 (-5% YoY) with iPhone to accelerate and Mac/iPad to decline double digit YoY.</li><li>Given the challenging revenue outlook, we expect near-term profit taking on slower iPhone/Mac/iPad, but we remain positive on Apple supply chain over Android camp in 2H23E, given iPhone replacement cycle and share gain from Samsung/Android camp. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Apple reported a FY1Q (CY4Q22) with EPS of US$1.88 (-10% YoY) and revenue of US$117.2bn (-5% YoY), which are 3.1% and 3.3% below consensus, largely due to weak macro and iPhone 14 Pro/Max supply chain constraints on COVID-19 in China.Looking into FY2Q23, mgmt. expected revenue to perform similarly to FY1Q23 (-5% YoY) with iPhone to accelerate and Mac/iPad to decline double digit YoY.Given the challenging revenue outlook, we expect near-term profit taking on slower iPhone/Mac/iPad, but we remain positive on Apple supply chain over Android camp in 2H23E, given iPhone replacement cycle and share gain from Samsung/Android camp. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology Sector – Apple FY1Q23 Miss on Macro and Supply Chain Issues

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Media stated that Apple will move part of its AirPods/Beats headphone production to India for the first time, as India continued to push for local manufacturing.</li><li>We believe this move is not surprising as Apple’s iPhone supplier, Wistron, started to assemble iPhones in India since 2017.</li><li>In addition, we expect Apple will start to build iPad/Watch in Vietnam as it continues to diversify its production bases. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Media stated that Apple will move part of its AirPods/Beats headphone production to India for the first time, as India continued to push for local manufacturing.We believe this move is not surprising as Apple’s iPhone supplier, Wistron, started to assemble iPhones in India since 2017.In addition, we expect Apple will start to build iPad/Watch in Vietnam as it continues to diversify its production bases. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology - Implications of AirPods/Beats Production Base Relocation to India

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We see emerging opportunities for high-quality companies after recent sector pull-back (30-40% in past three months), as most stocks under our coverage are trading below 1-SD of its 5-year average.</li><li>We believe near-term concerns over weak macro, inflation, geopolitical risks, RMB depreciation are largely priced in.</li><li>We suggest to accumulate quality names with higher exposure to structural growth drivers, including AR/VR, auto-related and Apple share gain. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We see emerging opportunities for high-quality companies after recent sector pull-back (30-40% in past three months), as most stocks under our coverage are trading below 1-SD of its 5-year average.We believe near-term concerns over weak macro, inflation, geopolitical risks, RMB depreciation are largely priced in.We suggest to accumulate quality names with higher exposure to structural growth drivers, including AR/VR, auto-related and Apple share gain. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology - Emerging Opportunities to Accumulate Quality Names in AR/VR

Hong Kong

Tongda Group Holdings Limited is a supplier of high-precision components of consumer electronic products. The Company uses its in-mould lamination ("IML") technology for customers in the in the PRC.   The Group has established a solid presence in handset, electrical appliance and notebook computer casings and related products.

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Tongda Group Holdings (698 HK)

Smartphone – Global Vs China Decelerated Downtrends

Despite shipment continued to fall y/y, all major markets experienced deceleration in decline. DMs like US & W Europe did better with more material...

Quam Securities

Tongda (698 HK) – FY22 results below; GPM recovery on better product mix

Tongda’s FY22 revenue/net profit declined 20%/40% YoY, below our/market expectations due to weak Android demand and macro headwinds

CMB International

China Technology Sector – Apple FY1Q23 Miss on Macro and Supply Chain Issues

Apple reported a FY1Q (CY4Q22) with EPS of US$1.88 (-10% YoY) and revenue of US$117.2bn (-5% YoY), which are 3.1% and 3.3% below consensus

CMB International

China Technology - Implications of AirPods/Beats Production Base Relocation to India

Media stated that Apple will move part of its AirPods/Beats headphone production to India for the first time, as India continued to push for local...

CMB International

China Technology - Emerging Opportunities to Accumulate Quality Names in AR/VR

We suggest to accumulate quality names with higher exposure to structural growth drivers, including AR/VR, auto-related and Apple share gain.

CMB International

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