Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 27th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$50.4 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by materials, utilities, communication services.</li>
<li>We have highlighted northbound flows for Moutai, CATL and Midea.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 27th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$50.4 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by materials, utilities, communication services.
We have highlighted northbound flows for Moutai, CATL and Midea.


Northbound Flows (Oct 27th): Moutai, CATL, Midea

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 2nd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$899.7 million, led by information technology, materials, health care sectors, and offset by financials, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Nantong Fujitsu Microelectronics, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy, Zhejiang Dahua Technology, Moutai, Wuliangye, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, Sany Heavy Industry, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Haitian Flavouring.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 2nd.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$899.7 million, led by information technology, materials, health care sectors, and offset by financials, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for Nantong Fujitsu Microelectronics, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy, Zhejiang Dahua Technology, Moutai, Wuliangye, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, Sany Heavy Industry, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Haitian Flavouring.


Northbound Flows (Jun 2nd): Moutai, Wuliangye, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, Sany Heavy

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 24th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$582.6 million, led by information technology, health care, and offset by industrials, materials, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Muyuan Foods, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Byd, Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 24th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$582.6 million, led by information technology, health care, and offset by industrials, materials, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for Muyuan Foods, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Byd, Ping An Insurance.


Northbound Flows (Feb 24th): Muyuan Foods, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Byd, Ping An Insurance

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (9866 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the close on 10 June replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy over 9 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (9866 HK)</a> while selling 11 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (9866 HK)</a>'s inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> could create significant arb opportunities versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> on 10 June.</li>
</ul>


As expected, NIO Inc (9866 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 10 June replacing ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK).
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy over 9 days of ADV on NIO Inc (9866 HK) while selling 11 days of ADV on ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK). 

NIO Inc (9866 HK)'s inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) could create significant arb opportunities versus NIO Inc (NIO US) on 10 June.


Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: NIO (9866 HK) To Replace ASM Pacific (522 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (9866 HK)</a> passes the velocity test and could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>Given the low trading volumes and the large assets tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a>, passive trackers will need to buy around 10 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers need to sell around 7 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>. Given implementation is two months away, sell the stock on rallies. </li>
</ul>



NIO Inc (9866 HK) passes the velocity test and could replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the June rebalance.
Given the low trading volumes and the large assets tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX), passive trackers will need to buy around 10 days of ADV on NIO. 
Passive trackers need to sell around 7 days of ADV on ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK). Given implementation is two months away, sell the stock on rallies. 


Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact as NIO (9866) Could Replace ASM Pacific (522)

China

TongFu Microelectronics Co., Ltd. manufactures integrated chips. The Company provides assembling and testing service for memory, microprocessor, micro-controller, hybrid circuit, analog circuit, and other related services throughout China.

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TongFu Microelectronics (002156 CH)

Northbound Flows (Oct 27th): Moutai, CATL, Midea

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and we highlight flows for Moutai, CATL and Midea.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jun 2nd): Moutai, Wuliangye, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, Sany Heavy

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Moutai, Wuliangye, China Tourism, Ping An...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Feb 24th): Muyuan Foods, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Byd, Ping An Insurance

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Muyuan Foods, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Byd, Ping An...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: NIO (9866 HK) To Replace ASM Pacific (522 HK)

NIO will replace ASM Pacific in the HSTECH at the close on 10 June. There are large shorts on ASM that could look to cover vs the passives. NIO's...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact as NIO (9866) Could Replace ASM Pacific (522)

NIO (9866) could replace ASM Pacific (522) in the HSTECH at the June rebal. Passive trackers will need to buy 10 days of ADV on NIO while selling 7...

Brian Freitas

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