HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2022, Hygeia maintained stable revenue growth but with lower-than-expected profit performance. We think Hygeia’s profitability would improve gradually in the future as more and more new hospitals become break-even.</li>
<li>Different from Aier/Topchoice, Hygeia’s acquired hospitals would be directly incorporated into the listed company, which means all aspects of consideration would be prudent. This is clearly more beneficial for investors/shareholders.</li>
<li>Hygeia’s business model has proven to be replicable.The implementation of DRG policy has no significant impact on profitability. Hygeia is expected to have higher valuation than Aier/Topchoice in the future.</li>
</ul>


In 2022, Hygeia maintained stable revenue growth but with lower-than-expected profit performance. We think Hygeia’s profitability would improve gradually in the future as more and more new hospitals become break-even.
Different from Aier/Topchoice, Hygeia’s acquired hospitals would be directly incorporated into the listed company, which means all aspects of consideration would be prudent. This is clearly more beneficial for investors/shareholders.
Hygeia’s business model has proven to be replicable.The implementation of DRG policy has no significant impact on profitability. Hygeia is expected to have higher valuation than Aier/Topchoice in the future.


Hygeia Healthcare (6078.HK) - Profits Fell Short of Expectations, but the Outlook Remains Positive

Shanghai Haohai Biological Tec / Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Haohai Biological Tec (688366 CH)

<ul>
<li>The General Office of the State Council issued favorable policy for TCM industry. However, TCM still has to face VBP, therefore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhangzhou-pientzehuang-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15709:1" rel="noopener">Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co. (600436 CH)</a> and Gushengtang are our top picks..</li>
<li>Pfizer is in talks to acquire Seagen in a deal worth over US$30 billion, but we remain conservative about whether this transaction would ultimately bring expected contributions to Pfizer.</li>
<li>Haohai’s business model fails to bring ideal performance. Increasing competition/declining gross margin cast doubts on the outlook of medical aesthetics business. We’re not optimistic about its potential valuation upside.</li>
</ul>


The General Office of the State Council issued favorable policy for TCM industry. However, TCM still has to face VBP, therefore Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co. (600436 CH) and Gushengtang are our top picks..
Pfizer is in talks to acquire Seagen in a deal worth over US$30 billion, but we remain conservative about whether this transaction would ultimately bring expected contributions to Pfizer.
Haohai’s business model fails to bring ideal performance. Increasing competition/declining gross margin cast doubts on the outlook of medical aesthetics business. We’re not optimistic about its potential valuation upside.


China Healthcare Weekly (March.3) - TCM New Policy, Pfizer to Acquire Seagen, Haohai Biological

<ul>
<li>It’s necessary for investors to understand the “true secret” of Topchoice’s success, which is impossible to copy. This is also the core reason why we’re not optimistic about the company. </li>
<li>The profit margin decline of dental implant and orthodontics businesses is inevitable, not only due to centralized procurement, but also the fierce competition of private dental hospitals in price war.</li>
<li>Topchoice is now paying for its ambition to deviate from its main business. The overall performance in 2022 may not be optimistic. We think Topchoice’s good times are over.</li>
</ul>


It’s necessary for investors to understand the “true secret” of Topchoice’s success, which is impossible to copy. This is also the core reason why we’re not optimistic about the company. 
The profit margin decline of dental implant and orthodontics businesses is inevitable, not only due to centralized procurement, but also the fierce competition of private dental hospitals in price war.
Topchoice is now paying for its ambition to deviate from its main business. The overall performance in 2022 may not be optimistic. We think Topchoice’s good times are over.


Topchoice Medical (600763.CH) - The “True Secret” of Success and the Lost Luck

Equity Capital Markets

Hygeia Healthcare / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The government has changed its tone and started to encourage social capital to run hospitals, indicating that the previous concerns about the policy risk on Hygeia has been relieved.</li>
<li>At this stage, Hygeia has more investment value, greater expansion space and higher market demand than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aier-eye-hospital-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1103:1" rel="noopener">Aier Eye Hospital</a>. Meanwhile, the Company performs better in trans provincial expansion than Topchoice. </li>
<li>Due to large investment/“heavy asset” model, Hygeia would continue to face capital pressure. Its expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control expansion quality. </li>
</ul>


The government has changed its tone and started to encourage social capital to run hospitals, indicating that the previous concerns about the policy risk on Hygeia has been relieved.
At this stage, Hygeia has more investment value, greater expansion space and higher market demand than Aier Eye Hospital. Meanwhile, the Company performs better in trans provincial expansion than Topchoice. 
Due to large investment/“heavy asset” model, Hygeia would continue to face capital pressure. Its expansion pace may not be as fast as expected if it hopes to control expansion quality. 


Hygeia Healthcare Placement (6078.HK)- The Prospect Is More Certain After the Policy Risk Is Removed

<ul>
<li>Hygeia had good performance in 2022H1,mainly because its business layout is mostly in lower-tier cities and its medical services belong to rigid demand. So, the impact of pandemic was limited.</li>
<li>Hygeia is better than Topchoice and Aier Eye Hospital. The business model of specialized hospital is better than that of general hospital. Among for-profit hospitals, we are bullish on Hygeia.</li>
<li>We think Hygeia will keep strong growth momentum in the future due to high demand. But pandemic and policy risk would weigh on valuations/sustainable bullish sentiment. Short-term trades are recommended.</li>
</ul>


Hygeia had good performance in 2022H1,mainly because its business layout is mostly in lower-tier cities and its medical services belong to rigid demand. So, the impact of pandemic was limited.
Hygeia is better than Topchoice and Aier Eye Hospital. The business model of specialized hospital is better than that of general hospital. Among for-profit hospitals, we are bullish on Hygeia.
We think Hygeia will keep strong growth momentum in the future due to high demand. But pandemic and policy risk would weigh on valuations/sustainable bullish sentiment. Short-term trades are recommended.


Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) 22H1 - The Logic and the Outlook

China

Topchoice Medical Investment Corporation provides dental and oral health care services.

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Topchoice Medical (600763 CH)

Hygeia Healthcare (6078.HK) - Profits Fell Short of Expectations, but the Outlook Remains Positive

It takes time for Hygeia to deliver stable/good profit performance considering its business nature. Due to its replicable development model, there...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (March.3) - TCM New Policy, Pfizer to Acquire Seagen, Haohai Biological

New favorable policy for TCM industry was released. We analyzed our top picks. Pfizer is in talks to acquire Seagen, but we're conservative about...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang