Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.</li>
<li>Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.</li>
<li>US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?</li>
</ul>


Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.
Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.
US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?


Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.</li><li>The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.</li><li>That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

IR & Research Intelligence, Sessa Investment Research

Sessa Investment Research

IR & Research Intelligence

Sponsored research focusing on Japanese small cap.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ITFOR Inc. (hereafter, the Company) is an independent system integrator established in 1972 and is now a leading packaged software vendor with strengths in the financial, public sector, and retail industries.</li><li>Currently, profitability is improving thanks to recurring business services such as maintenance and BPO, as well as enhanced cross-selling efforts, with ROE reaching 13.9% for FY2026/3.</li><li>SIR believes the current share price is undervalued relative to the Companys fundamentals.</li></ul>

ITFOR Inc. (hereafter, the Company) is an independent system integrator established in 1972 and is now a leading packaged software vendor with strengths in the financial, public sector, and retail industries.Currently, profitability is improving thanks to recurring business services such as maintenance and BPO, as well as enhanced cross-selling efforts, with ROE reaching 13.9% for FY2026/3.SIR believes the current share price is undervalued relative to the Companys fundamentals.

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

<ul>
<li>This is an opinion piece that attempts to look at the sustainability of policies set out by the Bank of Japan, namely the yield curve control.</li>
<li>There seems to be a growing risk that long end yields are set to rise further, testing the BoJ's resolve.</li>
<li>Indications are already there in the interest rate curves and the performance of Japanese Banks. A further report will follow, highlighting relevant charts and trade ideas</li>
</ul>


This is an opinion piece that attempts to look at the sustainability of policies set out by the Bank of Japan, namely the yield curve control.
There seems to be a growing risk that long end yields are set to rise further, testing the BoJ's resolve.
Indications are already there in the interest rate curves and the performance of Japanese Banks. A further report will follow, highlighting relevant charts and trade ideas


Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<p>The pandemic maybe behind but the Japanese economy is not out of the woods. The post-first-Covid-19 wave rebound has been weaker than anticipated. Japanese policymakers are cautious. In this week’s Cabinet Office assessment of the economy, which remained unchanged for the fourth month, the government concluded conditions remain severe. Meanwhile the September Tankan showed companies continuing to cut sales, profit and investment forecasts. A tough winter lies ahead. A third emergency spending package cannot be ruled out. </p>

The pandemic maybe behind but the Japanese economy is not out of the woods. The post-first-Covid-19 wave rebound has been weaker than anticipated. Japanese policymakers are cautious. In this week’s Cabinet Office assessment of the economy, which remained unchanged for the fourth month, the government concluded conditions remain severe. Meanwhile the September Tankan showed companies continuing to cut sales, profit and investment forecasts. A tough winter lies ahead. A third emergency spending package cannot be ruled out. 

Japan

TOPIX-Banks Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the banks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is one of the 33 industry sectors of the TOPIX Index (TPX). The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of January 6, 1992. The parent index is TPX.

TOPIX Banks Index (TPNBNK INDEX)

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

ITFOR | 4743 Initiation

ITFOR Inc. (hereafter, the Company) is an independent system integrator established in 1972 and is now a leading packaged software vendor with...

Sessa Investment Research

Playing with Fire – FX & Rates, Japan

Is the Bank of Japan immune in a world that sees rising consumer prices? Should they continue to pursue a policy that only seems to weaken their...

Shyam Devani

Japan - Recovering But...

The pandemic is behind, but Japan is not out of the woods. The economic recovery has been weaker than anticipated given that there was no lockdown...

Sharmila Whelan

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

​Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

ITFOR | 4743 Initiation

ITFOR Inc. (hereafter, the Company) is an independent system integrator established in 1972 and is now a leading packaged software vendor with...

Sessa Investment Research

Playing with Fire – FX & Rates, Japan

Is the Bank of Japan immune in a world that sees rising consumer prices? Should they continue to pursue a policy that only seems to weaken their...

Shyam Devani

Japan - Recovering But...

The pandemic is behind, but Japan is not out of the woods. The economic recovery has been weaker than anticipated given that there was no lockdown...

Sharmila Whelan

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...