Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>3D Investment Partners has sent another open letter to Toshiba’s Board of Directors once again pushing for privatisation options. </li>
<li>Once again, the fund's claims and demands come across as rather shrill and potentially desperate. </li>
<li>3D’s behaviour is a stark contrast with other activists who have been quieter and more skilful and could be the biggest risk to Toshiba in our view.</li>
</ul>


3D Investment Partners has sent another open letter to Toshiba’s Board of Directors once again pushing for privatisation options. 
Once again, the fund's claims and demands come across as rather shrill and potentially desperate. 
3D’s behaviour is a stark contrast with other activists who have been quieter and more skilful and could be the biggest risk to Toshiba in our view.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>'s Scheme Document flags the abolishment of the headcount test may become law ahead of the shareholder meeting. That is a game-changer. If true.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiho-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19647:1" rel="noopener">Daiho Corp (1822 JP)</a> has announced a deal which is not quite what it looks like. This situation is kind of a governance disaster.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> backs the revised Morrison/Brookfield tilt and severs ties with Macquarie</li>
</ul>



Razer Inc (1337 HK)'s Scheme Document flags the abolishment of the headcount test may become law ahead of the shareholder meeting. That is a game-changer. If true.

Daiho Corp (1822 JP) has announced a deal which is not quite what it looks like. This situation is kind of a governance disaster.

Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) backs the revised Morrison/Brookfield tilt and severs ties with Macquarie


Last Week in Event SPACE: Razer, Daiho, Uniti Group, Toshiba, Tabcorp, China Conch

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Raymond Zage's letter was super interesting in terms of its nuance, as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-board-ructions-as-independent-director-goes-rogue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67080" rel="noopener">Toshiba Board Ructions as Independent Director Goes Rogue</a>. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-coin-toss-is-neither-heads-nor-tails-as-both-proposals-fail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67405" rel="noopener">Toshiba Coin Toss Is Neither Heads Nor Tails as Both Proposals Fail</a>, I discussed that this opens the door to exploring combinations of ideas. </li>
<li>Today Effissimo filed an amended LSR to say they'd sell their shares to a Bain Tender Offer if launched. The statement, and the break clause are informative, and more nuanced.</li>
</ul>


Raymond Zage's letter was super interesting in terms of its nuance, as discussed in Toshiba Board Ructions as Independent Director Goes Rogue. 
In Toshiba Coin Toss Is Neither Heads Nor Tails as Both Proposals Fail, I discussed that this opens the door to exploring combinations of ideas. 
Today Effissimo filed an amended LSR to say they'd sell their shares to a Bain Tender Offer if launched. The statement, and the break clause are informative, and more nuanced.


Toshiba (6502) - Effissimo's Pledge Isn't One. It Is a Signalling Device.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toshiba possesses technologies of vital importance to Japan's economic competitiveness and national security: nuclear power, quantum cryptography and discrete semiconductors.</li>
<li>Any changes in ownership or management that would undermine or leak these technologies would probably not be tolerated.</li>
<li>LightStream's Mio Kato writes that Toshiba itself is attractive but the drama surrounding it is decidedly looking bad for business. He remains negative on the stock.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba possesses technologies of vital importance to Japan's economic competitiveness and national security: nuclear power, quantum cryptography and discrete semiconductors.
Any changes in ownership or management that would undermine or leak these technologies would probably not be tolerated.
LightStream's Mio Kato writes that Toshiba itself is attractive but the drama surrounding it is decidedly looking bad for business. He remains negative on the stock.


Toshiba (6502 JP): National Security Overrides the Interests of Speculators

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>'s activists are stuck. So are management. 3+ years since the last big buyback, 3 new CEOs and we are back to the drawing board for both management/activists. </li>
<li>Quarz and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a> holders "win" to get a Cash-Only Consideration bump to 1.0x Price/Sep2021 NAV at S$1.1949/unit. This gets them out at NAV.</li>
<li>Regulatory overhang sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a>'s spread to terms trading wide. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba (6502 JP)'s activists are stuck. So are management. 3+ years since the last big buyback, 3 new CEOs and we are back to the drawing board for both management/activists. 
Quarz and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) holders "win" to get a Cash-Only Consideration bump to 1.0x Price/Sep2021 NAV at S$1.1949/unit. This gets them out at NAV.
Regulatory overhang sees Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)'s spread to terms trading wide. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Mapletree, Link Admin, Cayman's Headcount, Razer, Crown Resorts

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba – 3D At It Again

3D Investment Partners has sent another open letter to Toshiba’s Board of Directors and we believe its constant aggravation could be the biggest...

Mio Kato

Last Week in Event SPACE: Razer, Daiho, Uniti Group, Toshiba, Tabcorp, China Conch

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba (6502) - Effissimo's Pledge Isn't One. It Is a Signalling Device.

Effissimo filed a small LSR amendment.No change in sharecount. But the text indicated a pledge to support a Bain tender offer. It's a nuanced...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502 JP): National Security Overrides the Interests of Speculators

Toshiba possesses technologies vital to Japan's economic future and national security. Changes that would threaten these technologies are unlikely...

Scott Foster

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Mapletree, Link Admin, Cayman's Headcount, Razer, Crown Resorts

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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