Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But there may be ¥800bn+ to buy on one day into the close later this month (+ another ¥200-300bn on two other days). Then a ¥500bn sell two days later.</li>
<li>Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. In Sep, not so much. This year there are Extra Special Flows.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But there may be ¥800bn+ to buy on one day into the close later this month (+ another ¥200-300bn on two other days). Then a ¥500bn sell two days later.
Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. In Sep, not so much. This year there are Extra Special Flows.


The Biggish Sep 2023 "Wednesday-Thursday Trade" With Added Monday/Friday Flavour

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> filed for it Japan listing, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> continued to work towards its H-share listing.</li>
<li>In the placement space, there were no major deals this week apart from Blue Star and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheela-foam-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28073:1" rel="noopener">Sheela Foam Ltd (SFL IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) filed for it Japan listing, while Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) continued to work towards its H-share listing.
In the placement space, there were no major deals this week apart from Blue Star and Sheela Foam Ltd (SFL IN). 


ECM Weekly (24th Sep 2023) - Cainiao, J&T, Midea, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Barito, Integral, DPC

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM US)</a> CDI selldown on 15 December will have to be bought by active shareholders, not passive; a relatively large reverse funding trade on the ASX rebal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a>'s CEO steps down. However, operations/investments, and the ongoing tweaking of the organizational structure with respect to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, should continue unabated. </li>
<li>Activist shareholders and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> stuck with each other for years. The takeover allows both sides to escape their mutual bearhug,</li>
</ul>


The Newmont (NEM US) CDI selldown on 15 December will have to be bought by active shareholders, not passive; a relatively large reverse funding trade on the ASX rebal.

Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus NV (PRX NA)'s CEO steps down. However, operations/investments, and the ongoing tweaking of the organizational structure with respect to Tencent (700 HK), should continue unabated. 
Activist shareholders and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) stuck with each other for years. The takeover allows both sides to escape their mutual bearhug,


Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

<ul>
<li>I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lansen-pharmaceutical-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10835:1" rel="noopener">Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)</a>'s Scheme.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group (CGC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poly-culture-group-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4729:1" rel="noopener">Poly Culture (3636 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals this week: Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)'s Scheme.
Key updates took place for: Costa Group (CGC AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Healius (HLS AU), Symbio (SYM AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), and Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

<ul>
<li>The JIP Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> closes today. I expect that we will see results announced as early as late tonight, but by law, by latest tomorrow.</li>
<li>There will be at least three major index downweights, and possibly deletions, most likely in the following five trading days.</li>
<li>This shows the approximate maximum share and dollar amounts to be sold, and approximate dates. </li>
</ul>


The JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) closes today. I expect that we will see results announced as early as late tonight, but by law, by latest tomorrow.
There will be at least three major index downweights, and possibly deletions, most likely in the following five trading days.
This shows the approximate maximum share and dollar amounts to be sold, and approximate dates. 


Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today - Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

The Biggish Sep 2023 "Wednesday-Thursday Trade" With Added Monday/Friday Flavour

Every September there is a big buy flow. Sometimes it is offset by de-allocation. This year there are two more buy flows and another big sell flow...

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (24th Sep 2023) - Cainiao, J&T, Midea, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Barito, Integral, DPC

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today - Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule

Toshiba's Tender Offer ends today. There will be considerable index selling over the next week, then more again in late Nov-Dec. The split of how...

Travis Lundy

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